San Diego State Aztecs vs Nevada Wolf Pack Prediction, 10/11/2025 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: San Diego State Aztecs vs Nevada Wolf Pack

Date: Saturday, October 11, 2025

Location: Mackay Stadium in Reno, NV

TV: CBSSN

Odds/Point Spread: Wolf Pack (+6.5)

Total/Over-Under: 42

The San Diego State Aztecs (4-1) are headed to Mackay Stadium on Saturday, October 11, 2025 where they will take on the Nevada Wolf Pack (1-3). San Diego State opens this game as 6.5-point favorites. The total is set at 42.

The San Diego State Aztecs step onto the field holding a record of 4-1 this season. In their last game, the Aztecs took on the Colorado State Rams and walked away with a win by a score of 45-24. On the ground, the Aztecs conceded 149 yds on 35 tries, which averages out to 4.3 yds per run allowed. San Diego State relinquished 18 completions on 30 tries for 206 yds, and a completion rate of 60.0%. In all, they had 66 plays which converted into 540 yds. The San Diego State Aztecs ended up rushing 48 times and had 281 yards, which had them averaging 5.9 yards per tote.

When it comes to putting the ball in the endzone, the San Diego State Aztecs have an average of 28.0 points per outing. As a team they average 175.4 yards via the ground game which is 53rd in college football. The Aztecs have earned 1,806 total yards over the course of this season. In terms of scoring touchdowns, San Diego State has amassed 5 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns. San Diego State has accounted for 92 1st downs as an offense, and they have been called for 34 infractions for 317 yds. They have surrendered the football 2 different times.

Regarding passing yards, the Aztecs are allowing 790 yds which ranks them 17th in the nation. They have allowed 158.0 yards per game via the pass and giving up a completion percentage of 51.9%. Over the course of this year, they are conceding 260.8 yards per contest which has them sitting 14th in college football. They have yielded 5 touchdowns via the pass as well as 2 touchdowns pounding the rock. The opposition is running for 3.0 yards per rushing attempt and 102.8 yards on the ground per game for the season. In total, they have allowed 514 rushing yards through 5 games. The Aztecs rank 10th in the nation regarding their opponents scoring, conceding 12.6 PPG.

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The Wolf Pack head into this matchup 1-3 for this season. When they last stepped on the field, the Wolf Pack took a loss by a score of 20-17 against the Fresno State Bulldogs. Nevada ran for 3.8 yds per carry, finishing with 129 yds on 34 attempts. The Wolf Pack finished the game with a total of 246 yards on 55 plays (4.5 yards per play). The Wolf Pack secondary conceded a completion rate of 69.2%, surrendering 190 yards on 18 for 26 through the air. Nevada allowed 36 rushing attempts for 152 yards (4.2 yds per rush).

The Nevada Wolf Pack maintain an average of 320.6 yards/contest, which is good for 119th in D-1. The Nevada offense has compiled 201 penalty yards on 21 violations, which has them ranked 125th in college football in terms of helping out the opposition. They average 177.2 run yards per game and have toted the ball for 886 yards for this year. They have thrown 10 interceptions while losing 4 fumbles and they have obtained 87 first downs. When looking at their scoring prowess, the Wolf Pack are ranking 131st in Division 1 with 15.4 points per game. During this campaign thus far, the Wolf Pack have thrown for 717 yards via the pass as well as holding an average of 143.4 throwing yards per game, giving them a rank of 129th in college football.

Nevada has conceded a total of 683 yards on the ground (136.6 yards/game) in addition to 9 touchdowns rushing so far this season. They have allowed the opposition 5 touchdowns through the air as well as 236.2 yards/game, which puts them in 91st in D-1. This year, they have relinquished 128 pts. Their defense has 1 fumble and 4 picks on the season. The Wolf Pack defense has been on the field for 334 plays, which has them sitting 59th in the nation. The Wolf Pack are surrendering 25.6 PPG, which has them ranked 82nd in the nation.

Who will win tonight's Aztecs/Wolf Pack college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Aztecs -6.5

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