San Diego State Aztecs vs New Mexico Lobos Prediction, 11/28/2025 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: San Diego State Aztecs vs New Mexico Lobos

Date: Friday, November 28, 2025

Location: University Stadium in Albuquerque, NM

TV: CBSSN

Odds/Point Spread: Lobos (+1.5)

Total/Over-Under: 41.5

University Stadium is the site where the New Mexico Lobos (8-3) will compete against the San Diego State Aztecs (9-2) on Friday, November 28, 2025. New Mexico opens this matchup as 1.5-point underdogs. The over/under is set at 41.5.

The San Diego State Aztecs head into this matchup 9-2 for this year. The last time they took the field, the Aztecs faced the San Jose State Spartans and took home the win by a score of 25-3. In the running game, the Aztecs conceded 133 yards on 36 tries, which averages out to 3.7 yds per rush surrendered. San Diego State conceded 20 pass completions on 38 attempts for a total of 135 yds, and a completion rate of 52.6%. In all, they tallied 60 plays for 248 yards. The San Diego State Aztecs rushed the ball a total of 44 times and accumulated 167 yds, which earned them an average of 3.8 yds per carry.

The Aztecs have tallied 3,746 total yards this season. In terms of distribution of touchdowns, San Diego State has totaled 8 touchdowns via the pass and 19 touchdowns via the ground. They have turned the ball over 10 different times. San Diego State has a total of 189 1st downs as a team, and they have been flagged for 63 infractions for 578 yards. As a team they average 187.6 yards in the run game which is 34th in the country. Concerning putting points on the board, the San Diego State Aztecs are averaging 25.4 points per outing.

The Aztecs sit in 2nd in the country regarding the opposition scoring, conceding 11.6 points per game. Opposing teams are running for an average of 3.0 yards per tote and 103.2 yards on the ground per game on the campaign. In total, they have given up 1,135 yards via the ground game in 11 games. Concerning yards through the air, the Aztecs have conceded 1,757 yards which puts them in 7th in college football. They have allowed 159.7 yards per game through the air as well as conceding a completion percentage of 52.9%. Overall, they are conceding 262.9 yards/game which puts them 6th in the nation. They have relinquished 10 touchdowns through the air in addition to 3 touchdowns on the ground.

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The Lobos come into this game with a record of 8-3 for this season. When they last played, the Lobos went home victorious with a score of 20-3 when they faced the Air Force Falcons. The Lobos ended up finishing with 277 yards while they ran 55 plays (5.0 yds per play). New Mexico ran the ball for 4.3 yards per carry, finishing with 172 yds on 40 carries. New Mexico allowed 48 attempts on the ground for 110 yards (2.3 yards per carry). The Lobos secondary gave up a completion rate of 36.4%, relinquishing 51 yds on 4 out of 11 passing.

When it comes to how much they score, the Lobos are ranking 63rd in the country averaging 28.4 PPG. The New Mexico Lobos are averaging 375.2 yards per game, which ranks them 81st in Division 1. The New Mexico offense has totaled 531 penalty yds on 64 infractions, which ranks 81st in Division 1 in terms of helping out the opposition. They have tossed 9 picks while letting opponents recover 12 fumbles and they have been able to record 219 1st downs. Over the course of the season to this point, the Lobos have thrown for a total of 2,448 yards through the air along with an average of 222.5 throwing yards per outing, putting them at 73rd in D-1. They have an average of 152.7 yards per game via the rush and have toted the ball for 1,680 yards for the year.

New Mexico has given up a total of 1,168 rushing yards (106.2 yards per contest) in addition to 12 touchdowns on the ground on the year. They have surrendered 17 touchdowns through the air in addition to 242.7 yards per game, which has them in 106th in the country. This year, they have allowed 253 total points. They have 6 fumbles recovered and 8 interceptions this year. The Lobos defense has been on the field for 721 plays, ranking them 52nd in D-1. The Lobos are surrendering 23.0 points per game, which puts them 57th in the country.

Who will win tonight's Aztecs/Lobos college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Aztecs -1.5

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