TCU Horned Frogs vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction, 9/1/2025 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: TCU Horned Frogs vs North Carolina Tar Heels

Date: Monday, September 1, 2025

Location: Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, NC

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Tar Heels (+3.5)

Total/Over-Under: 56.5

Kenan Stadium is where the North Carolina Tar Heels (6-7 last year) will go up against the TCU Horned Frogs (9-4 last season) on Monday, September 1, 2025. TCU opens as 3.5-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The over/under is 56.5.

The TCU Horned Frogs wrapped up their year with a 9-4 record. In their last matchup, the Horned Frogs faced off with the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns and walked away with a win by a score of 34-3. In all, they had 67 plays for 367 yds. The TCU Horned Frogs rushed the ball a total of 33 different times and totaled 110 yds, which came out to an average of 3.3 yards per carry. In the running game, the Horned Frogs conceded 114 yards on 33 attempts, which is an average of 3.5 yards per run allowed. TCU relinquished 11 pass completions on 26 tries for a total of 95 yds, and a completion rate of 42.3%.

Regarding putting points on the board, the TCU Horned Frogs held an average of 33.5 points per contest. As a team they held an average of 113.9 yards rushing, which was 113th in D-1. The Horned Frogs earned 5,548 total yards for the previous season. TCU compiled 29 passing touchdowns and 26 touchdowns via the ground. TCU recorded 293 1st downs offensively, and they committed 73 infractions for 692 yds. They gave the ball to the opposition 22 times.

Concerning passing yards, the Horned Frogs conceded 2,408 yards which ranked them 25th in college football. In their 13 games played last year, they conceded 185.2 yards per contest through the air in addition to relinquishing a completion percentage of 57.4%. They granted 345.6 yards per outing which had them sitting 45th in the nation. They allowed 14 touchdowns through the air and 21 touchdowns on the ground. They gave up an average of 4.2 yards per run and 160.5 yards on the ground per game over the course of last year. For the season, they allowed 2,087 yards on the ground in 13 outings. The Horned Frogs were ranked 63rd in the nation when it comes to their opponents scoring, giving up 24.6 points per game.

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The Tar Heels ended the season with a 6-7 mark. The last time they took the field, the Tar Heels walked away with a loss by a score of 27-14 when they played the Connecticut Huskies. The Tar Heels finished with 206 yds and they ran 42 plays (4.9 yards per play). North Carolina rushed for 3.4 yards per tote, finishing with 96 yds on 28 carries. North Carolina relinquished 46 rush attempts for 210 yards (4.6 yds per rush). The Tar Heels pass defense allowed a completion percentage of 66.7%, surrendering 151 yds on 16 out of 24 through the air.

The North Carolina Tar Heels averaged 406.7 yards/game, which had them ranked 48th in D-1. The North Carolina offense compiled 832 yards of penalties on 98 violations, which had them ranked 14th in the nation in terms of hurting your team. They held an average of 182.3 yards per game via the rush and ran for 2,370 yards for the season. They tossed 9 interceptions while surrendering 8 fumbles and they obtained 273 1st downs. In relation to putting points on the board, the Tar Heels had a ranking of 45th in D-1 holding an average of 30.9 points per contest. Last year, the Tar Heels racked up 2,917 passing yards in addition to an average of 224.4 passing yards per game, which had them ranked 72nd in the nation.

North Carolina allowed a total of 1,944 yards via the ground game (149.5 yards per outing) in addition to 21 touchdowns via the rush over the course of last season. They surrendered 20 touchdowns via the pass and 226.3 yards per game, which put them in 80th in Division 1. They totaled 7 fumbles and 9 picks last season. The Tar Heels defense took the field for 867 plays, ranking them 81st in the country. The Tar Heels conceded 28.1 PPG, which put them in 89th in Division 1. Overall, they surrendered 365 total points.

Who will win tonight's Horned Frogs/Tar Heels college football game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Tar Heels +3.5

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