Missouri State Bears vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, 9/26/2026 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Missouri State Bears vs SMU Mustangs

Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026

Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, TX

TV: ACC Network

Odds/Point Spread: Mustangs (-35.5)

Total/Over-Under: 57.5

The Missouri State Bears (1-2) are traveling to Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Saturday, September 26, 2026 where they will try to beat the SMU Mustangs (2-1). SMU opens this matchup as 35.5-point favorites. The over/under is 57.5.

The Missouri State Bears come into this game with a record of 1-2 for this year. In their last contest, the Bears faced off with the Marshall Thundering Herd and went home with a loss by a final score of 30-24. When the final whistle blew, they ran 65 plays which gave them a total of 506 yards. The Missouri State Bears rushed the ball a total of 36 different times and compiled 186 yards, earning them an average of 5.2 yards per carry. In the running game, the Bears conceded 267 yds on 45 attempts, which is an average of 5.9 yds per rush surrendered. Missouri State allowed 17 completions on 26 attempts for 197 yds, and a completion rate of 65.4%.

When it comes to putting the ball in the endzone, the Missouri State Bears are sitting at 24.0 points per game. As a unit they maintain an average of 157.3 yards in the run game which is 80th in Division 1. The Bears have racked up 1,142 total yards this season. When it comes to getting the ball in the endzone, Missouri State has compiled 3 touchdowns through the air and 7 rushing touchdowns. Missouri State has earned 55 1st downs as a team, and they have been flagged for 30 infractions for 218 yds. They have surrendered the football 3 times.

When it comes to passing yards, the Bears have allowed 571 yards which has them sitting in 60th in college football. They are conceding 190.3 yards per game via the pass as well as conceding a completion percentage of 59.6%. Over the course of this season, they are surrendering 397.3 yards per game putting them 107th in college football. They have relinquished 6 touchdowns through the air in addition to 5 touchdowns via the ground game. Opposing teams are running for an average of 4.9 yards per run and 207.0 yards on the ground per game for the campaign. Overall, they have allowed 621 yards via the running game in 3 contests. The Bears are ranked 117th in the nation in terms of their opponents scoring, allowing 31.3 points per contest.

Get all of our College Football Expert Picks

The Mustangs come into this matchup with a record of 2-1 for this season. In their last game, the Mustangs walked away with a loss by a score of 41-31 when they played the Louisville Cardinals. SMU surrendered 37 attempts on the ground for 265 yards (7.2 yards per rush). The Mustangs secondary allowed a completion percentage of 60.9%, surrendering 177 yards on 14 for 23 passing. The Mustangs finished the game with a total of 479 yards and they ran 80 plays (6.0 yds per play). SMU rushed for 5.7 yards per carry, totaling 257 yards on 45 carries.

When looking at their scoring prowess, the Mustangs are ranking 41st in D-1 averaging 38.0 points per contest. The SMU Mustangs average 537.0 yards/game, which has them sitting 5th in college football. The SMU offense has compiled 184 penalty yds on 20 violations, which is 66th in the country in terms of helping out the other team. They have tossed 4 picks while surrendering 3 fumbles and they have earned 70 1st downs. For the year so far, the Mustangs have a total of 1,106 passing yards in addition to holding an average of 368.7 throwing yards per contest, which has them ranked 2nd in the nation. They are averaging 168.3 yards per game via the rush and have rushed for 505 yards for this season.

The Mustangs are conceding 25.0 PPG, which puts them 90th in the nation. SMU has allowed a total of 526 rushing yards (175.3 yards per game) as well as 6 touchdowns via the rush on the season. They have given up 4 touchdowns via the pass as well as 157.7 yards per game, which has them ranked 25th in college football. The Mustangs defense has taken part in 188 plays, which is good for 55th in the nation. Their defense has earned 2 fumbles and 1 pick so far this year. Overall, they have surrendered 75 total points.

Who will win tonight's Bears/Mustangs college football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Mustangs -35.5

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Get college football picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.