Free NBA Picks: Warriors at Nuggets Odds
by Dave Schwab - 12/23/2013
The Golden State Warriors and the Denver Nuggets clash this Monday night at ORACLE Arena in the first meeting between these Western Conference foes since last season’s playoffs. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. (ET), and the game will be available on NBA League Pass.
The Warriors have followed up last season’s surprising run to the postseason with a 15-13 straight up start that has them tied with Denver for eighth place in the conference standings. They are 12-14-2 against the spread, and the total has stayed “under” in 10 of 15 road games this year.
Denver has lost its last three outings to fall to 14-12 SU on the year. It failed to cover as an 8.5-point road underdog in this past Saturday’s 112-91 loss to the Clippers. The total stayed under the 205-point closing line, and it has now stayed under in its last seven games.
Golden State at Denver Betting Storylines
Golden State pummeled the Lakers on Saturday night 102-83 as a 13.5-point home favorite after losing three of their previous four games. Five different players scored in double-figures led by David Lee’s 19 points. The Warriors shot only 38.8 percent from the field as opposed to a season average of 46.2 percent. However, they still almost matched their average point total of 103 a game, which is the 10th-highest total in the NBA.
Stephen Curry continues to lead the team in scoring with 24.3 points a game, and Klay Thompson is adding another 19.7 points. Andrew Bogut is pulling down 10.6 rebounds as part of a 45.9 team total that is ranked fourth in the league. Defensively, the Warriors are holding teams to 99.7 points a game, but this total has been exceeded in six of their last 10 games. This team remains talented enough to beat the best teams in the West, but consistency from game to game is still a stumbling block to better overall results.
The Nuggets match up extremely well against Golden State on both ends of the court. They are averaging 101.2 points a game while shooting 44.3 percent from the floor and allowing an average of 100.6 points a night. Denver is ranked second in the NBA in rebounds with 46.6 and also deep in shooters with eight different players averaging at least eight points a game. Despite all of this production, this is another team that has struggled with consistency this season, especially when it comes to shooting the ball.
Ty Lawson remains at the head of the pack with 17.6 points and 7.9 assists a game. He is hitting 43.3 percent of his shots from the field and 36.5 percent from three-point range. Wilson Chandler is averaging 12.2 points, and JJ Hickson leads the team in rebounds with 8.7 while chipping in another 11.2 points. One injury concern for Monday night is Kenneth Faried. He remains day-to-day after rolling his ankle in Saturday’s win over Los Angeles.
Golden State at Denver Betting Tends and Futures Odds
The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on one day of rest and 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The total has stayed under in 10 of their last 14 road games.
The Nuggets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against a team from the Pacific Division and 1-5 ATS in their last six games at home. The total has stayed under their last seven home games.
Head-to-head in this matchup, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the total has stayed under in five of the last seven games played in Denver.
NBA Free Picks: Golden State at Denver Betting Predictions
Given the kind of numbers that both of these teams are capable of putting up on any given night, a matchup between them is bound to attract a higher-than-normal total line. That is the case again for Monday night, but the recent betting trends strongly suggest a lower-than-expected final score. I am not sure which team comes out on top in this one, but I am more than confident they will combine for fewer than 208.5 points.
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