Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, 5/13/2025 Preview and Pick

Game: Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Date: Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Location: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK

TV: TNT

Odds/Point Spread: Denver (+11.0)

With the series tied at two a piece, the Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) will try to beat the Denver Nuggets (50-32) at Paycom Center on Tuesday in Game 5 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Oklahoma City opens this matchup as 11-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The total has been set at 221.

The Nuggets took the court against the Thunder and went home with a loss by a final score of 92-87 in Game 4. Denver wrapped up the contest having earned a 31.3% field goal percentage (25 out of 80) and converted 11 out of their 45 three-point shots. From the charity stripe, the Nuggets converted 26 of 36 shots for a percentage of 72.2%. When talking about grabbing boards, they earned 49 with 12 of them being offensive. They also dished out 17 assists in this contest in addition to creating 14 turnovers and getting 9 steals. In relation to the defense, Denver allowed 35.6% from the floor on 31 out of 87 shooting. Oklahoma City dished out 20 dimes and had 9 steals for the contest. Moreover, Oklahoma City had 55 rebounds (15 offensive, 40 defensive) and had 3 blocked shots. Oklahoma City finished shooting 76.9% from the charity stripe by knocking down 20 of their 26 tries. They also knocked down 10 out of their 41 shots from beyond the arc. In relation to fouls, the Nuggets walked away with 23 while the Thunder finished the game with 26 fouls.

Nikola Jokic is one guy who played a role for this game. He recorded 27 points on 7 out of 22 shooting. He was on the hardwood for 43 minutes and also snagged 13 boards. Jokic finished the contest at 31.8% from the field and dished out 3 assists.

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Denver enters this matchup with a mark of 50-32 this season. They have an average of 120.8 points per contest (3rd in the league) while going 50.6% from the field. The Nuggets are connecting on 37.6% on three-point attempts (984 of 2,619) and 77.0% from the free throw line. As a unit, Denver is pulling in 45.7 boards per game and has totaled 2,542 dimes so far this season, which is 1st in the league in terms of passing. They turn the ball over 14.3 times per contest and as a group are committing 17.6 personal fouls every game.

When they are on the defensive end, the Nuggets have forced 13.0 turnovers on a nightly basis while drawing 19.0 fouls. They are surrendering 36.5% on 3-point attempts and they are 25th in the league in points per game from their opponents (116.9). The Nuggets are allowing a field goal percentage of 46.6% (3,554 of 7,629) and they relinquish 42.5 boards per game as a unit. They are 29th in the league in allowing assists to their opponents with 2,379 surrendered for the campaign.

In Game 4, concerning how they attacked the glass, Oklahoma City permitted Denver to grab 49 in all (12 offensive). They wrapped up this game 24.4% from downtown by going 11 out of 45 and finished the game at 26 out of 36 from the free throw line (72.2%). The Thunder permitted the Nuggets to bury 25 of their 80 tries from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 31.3% for this contest. Overall, the Thunder shot 31 for 87 from the floor which gave them a percentage of 35.6%. With regard to 3-point shots, Oklahoma City made 10 out of their 41 tries (24.4%). They were able to convert 20 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 76.9%. The Nuggets were called for 2 personal fouls for this contest which took the Thunder to the charity stripe for 26 tries. They also turned the ball over 14 times, while recording 9 steals in this game. The Thunder were able to pull down 40 defensive boards and 15 offensive boards totaling 55 for this contest.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ended up being a factor for the Thunder in the game. Gilgeous-Alexander had 25 points in his 38 minutes on the court and had 6 dimes for the contest. He buried 8 out of 19 in this game for a field goal percentage of 42.1%, and had 6 rebounds.

Oklahoma City has a mark of 68-14 on the season. In terms of offensive execution, the Thunder are shooting 48.2% from the field, which is ranked 7th in the league. Oklahoma City has earned 9,881 pts for the season (120.5 per contest) and they grab 44.8 rebounds per contest. Their rate of dishing out assists is at 26.9 times per contest (12th in the NBA) and they turn it over 11.7 times per game. The Thunder are responsible for committing 19.9 fouls per game and they go 81.9% from the free throw line.

The Thunder defensively are ranked 3rd in the NBA in PPG surrendered with 107.6. They are able to force 17.0 TO's every game and allow teams to shoot 43.6% from the floor (1st in basketball). The Oklahoma City defense concedes 34.2% on 3-point shots (1,104 of 3,225) and their opponents are making 77.4% of their free throw attempts. They have given up 24.6 assists and 44.9 boards on a nightly basis, which ranks them 4th and 20th in the league.

So what is Tonights Parlay prediction?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Oklahoma City (-11.0)

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