Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, 5/18/2025 Preview and Pick

Game: Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Date: Sunday, May 18, 2025

Location: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Denver (+8.0)

The Denver Nuggets (50-32) are hitting the road to Paycom Center on Sunday where they will try to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) in Game 7 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Oklahoma City opens this matchup as 8-point favorites. The betting total comes in at 211.

In Game 6, the Nuggets took the court against the Thunder and notched a win by a score of 119-107. When it comes to personal fouls, the Nuggets left the arena with 16 while the Thunder had 28 personal fouls. They buried 11 out of their 40 shots from beyond the arc. Oklahoma City finished 62.5% from the free throw line by knocking down 10 of their 16 tries. Moreover, Oklahoma City snagged 40 rebounds (7 offensive, 33 defensive) and got 6 rejections. Oklahoma City distributed 25 assists and had 11 steals for this contest. In reference to defense, Denver allowed 46.7% from the floor on 43 out of 92 shooting. They also dished out 27 assists for this contest as well as forcing the opposition into 11 turnovers and earning 8 steals. In terms of grabbing rebounds, they collected 52 with 11 of them being on the offensive end. From the free throw line, the Nuggets converted 27 of 32 attempts for a rate of 84.4%. Denver ended the game with a 46.5% FG percentage (40 of 86) and knocked down 12 of their 32 3-point shots.

Nikola Jokic is a guy who was a factor in this matchup. He recorded 29 points on 9 of 14 shooting. He played for 41 mins and totaled 14 rebounds. Jokic ended up shooting 64.3% from the field and distributed 8 dimes.

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Denver steps onto the court with a mark of 50-32 for the season. They lose possession by turning the ball over 14.3 times per game and as a squad are committing 17.6 personal fouls every game. As a team, Denver is pulling down 45.7 rebounds per contest and has accounted for 2,542 dimes for the year, which ranks 1st in the NBA in terms of passing the rock. The Nuggets are hitting 37.6% on shots from beyond the arc (984 of 2,619) and 77.0% from the free throw line. They are averaging 120.8 points per contest (3rd in the league) on 50.6% from the floor.

Defensively, the Nuggets are forcing their opponents into 13.0 turnovers every game and they draw 19.0 personal fouls. They are giving up 36.5% on shots from beyond the perimeter and they are 25th in the NBA in PPG from their opponents (116.9). The Nuggets defense is giving up and opponent field goal percentage of 46.6% (3,554 of 7,629) and they concede 42.5 rebounds per game as a squad. They rank 29th in basketball in allowing assists with 2,379 conceded on the year.

In Game 6, concerning how they cleaned up the glass, Oklahoma City allowed Denver to collect 52 overall (11 on the offensive side). They finished the game shooting 37.5% from three-point range by going 12 of 32 and walked away from this one shooting 27 out of 32 at the charity stripe (84.4%). The Thunder permitted the Nuggets to knock down 40 of 86 tries from the floor which gave them a percentage of 46.5% in the matchup. Overall, the Thunder walked away from this one shooting 43 for 92 from the floor which gave them a percentage of 46.7%. With respect to shots from distance, Oklahoma City made 11 of 40 attempts (27.5%). They were able to knock down 10 of the free throw attempts for a clip of 62.5%. The Nuggets were called for 16 fouls for the contest which took the Thunder to the charity stripe for 16 attempts. They also coughed up the ball 11 times, while getting 11 steals for the contest. The Thunder snagged 33 defensive boards and 7 offensive boards totaling 40 in this matchup.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was important for the Thunder for this game. He made 11 of 16 for the contest for a field goal rate of 68.8%, and had 3 rebounds. Gilgeous-Alexander totaled 32 points in his 35 mins of playing time and had 6 assists in the matchup.

Oklahoma City has a mark of 68-14 on the campaign. When it comes to offense, the Thunder are shooting 48.2% from the field, which ranks 7th in basketball. Oklahoma City has earned 9,881 points for the campaign (120.5 per contest) and they collect 44.8 rebounds per contest. They are earning an assist 26.9 times per game (12th in the league) and they turn it over 11.7 times per game. The Thunder have committed 19.9 personal fouls per contest while shooting 81.9% from the charity stripe.

The Thunder on defense are ranked 3rd in basketball in PPG given up with 107.6. They are forcing their opponents into 17.0 turnovers on a nightly basis and have allowed teams to shoot 43.6% from the floor (1st in basketball). The Oklahoma City defense allows 34.2% from downtown (1,104 of 3,225) and opponents are knocking down 77.4% of their shots from the charity stripe. They have surrendered 24.6 assists and 44.9 boards per game, which is ranked 4th and 20th in basketball.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Denver (+8.0)

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