Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction, 5/4/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs

Date: Monday, May 4, 2026

Location: Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, TX

TV: Peacock

Odds/Point Spread: Minnesota (+13.5)

Frost Bank Center is the site where the San Antonio Spurs (62-20) will try to defeat the Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) on Monday in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Minnesota opens this game as 13.5-point dogs. The over/under comes in at 216.5.

The Timberwolves closed out the Nuggets and took home the win by a score of 110-98 in their last game. Minnesota finished the contest having earned a 45.7% FG percentage (43 out of 94) and knocked down 7 out of their 29 shots from downtown. At the charity stripe, the Timberwolves buried 17 of their 24 attempts for a percentage of 70.8%. In regard to hauling in rebounds, they earned a total of 50 with 19 of them being of the offensive sort. They also doled out 26 assists in this matchup as well as forcing 13 turnovers and getting 8 steals. In regard to the defense, Minnesota let their opponent shoot 45.3% from the floor on 34 out of 75 shooting. Denver doled out 24 dimes and had 4 steals in this contest. Moreover, Denver had 33 rebounds (6 offensive, 27 defensive) and added 3 rejections. Denver walked away from this one shooting 80.0% from the free throw line by burying 20 of 25 attempts. They knocked down 10 out of their 27 attempts from beyond the arc. In the matter of fouls, the Timberwolves ended up walking away with 21 and the Nuggets recorded 26 fouls.

Jaden McDaniels is one player who had an impact for the matchup. McDaniels finished the game at 52.0% from the floor and also dished out 3 dimes. He was on the hardwood for 45 minutes and collected 10 rebounds. He accumulated 32 points on 13 out of 25 shooting.

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Minnesota enters this one with a win-loss mark of 49-33 on the campaign. They lose possession via turnover 14.8 times per contest and as a basketball team are committing 21.2 fouls every game. As a team, Minnesota is pulling down 44.1 rebounds per contest and has 2,138 assists so far this year, which has them ranked 16th in the NBA in terms of passing the ball. The Timberwolves are connecting on 37.0% on shots from beyond the arc (1,128 of 3,049) and 75.2% from the charity stripe. They have an average of 118.0 pts per game (7th in the league) while hitting 48.1% from the field.

On defense, the Timberwolves are forcing 15.0 turnovers per contest and they draw 20.5 fouls. They are giving up 35.5% on shots from beyond the arc and they are 12th in basketball in PPG allowed (114.6). The Timberwolves defensively are allowing and opponent field goal percentage of 46.2% (3,395 of 7,352) and they relinquish 43.7 boards per game as a unit. They are 10th in the NBA in allowing assists to the opposition with 2,136 surrendered for the campaign.

The Spurs took home the win by a final score of 114-95 to close out the Trail Blazers. Regarding how they cleaned up the glass, San Antonio allowed Portland to grab 38 overall (14 on the offensive side). They wrapped up this game 23.4% from beyond the perimeter by connecting on 11 out of 47 and ended up shooting 18 out of 23 from the free throw line (78.3%). The Spurs permitted the Trail Blazers to knock down 33 out of 94 attempts from the floor which had them shooting 35.1% for the matchup. At the conclusion of this game, the Spurs finished the game shooting 41 for 75 from the field which gave them a rate of 54.7%. Pertaining to three-point attempts, San Antonio knocked down 12 of 30 attempts (40.0%). They were able to make 20 of the free throws for a percentage of 69.0%. The Trail Blazers had 28 fouls for the game which took the Spurs to the charity stripe for 29 shots. They also coughed it up 17 times, while recording 5 steals in the matchup. The Spurs collected 35 defensive boards and 7 offensive rebounds totaling 42 for the game.

De'Aaron Fox ended up having an impact for the Spurs for the matchup. He knocked down 8 out of 14 for the game for a field goal rate of 57.1%, and had 3 rebounds. Fox racked up 21 points in his 34 mins on the court and had 9 assists in the game.

San Antonio has a record of 62-20 for the campaign. The Spurs are responsible for committing 18.9 fouls per game and they shoot 78.7% from the charity stripe. They are assisting teammates 28.1 times per contest (9th in the league) and they turn it over 13.5 times per contest. San Antonio has tallied 9,826 points this year (119.8 per game) and they pull in 47.0 boards per game. On the offensive side of the ball, the Spurs are connecting on 48.3% from the field, which is 6th in the league.

The San Antonio defense gives up 35.2% on shots from beyond the arc (1,066 of 3,028) and their opponents are converting on 79.0% of their foul shots. They surrender 26.2 assists and 42.6 boards per contest, which is ranked 12th and 8th in the league. The Spurs on the defensive end are ranked 8th in the league in points allowed per contest with 111.5. They are forcing 13.0 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 45.1% from the field (4th in the league).

So what is Tonights Parlay prediction?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take San Antonio (-13.5) and over 216.5 points

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