Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, 3/1/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks

Date: Sunday, March 1, 2026

Location: American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX

TV: NBC

The Dallas Mavericks (21-38) welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder (46-15) at American Airlines Center on Sunday.

The Thunder stepped onto the hardwood against the Nuggets and took home the win by a score of 127-121 in their last contest. Oklahoma City walked away from the contest with a 46.5% field goal percentage (46 of 99) and buried 12 out of their 35 three-point shots. At the charity stripe, the Thunder made 23 of 27 shots for a percentage of 85.2%. In terms of pulling down boards, they collected 56 with 8 of them being of the offensive sort. They also dished out 29 assists in this contest as well as forcing the other team into 18 turnovers and having 14 steals. In the matter of defense, Oklahoma City allowed 41.7% from the floor on 43 of 103 shooting. Denver recorded 27 assists and had 10 steals for this contest. Moreover, Denver collected 51 boards (11 offensive, 40 defensive) and got 10 blocks. Denver went 77.3% from the free throw line by making 17 of 22 attempts. They made 18 out of their 48 attempts from beyond the arc. In regard to fouls, the Thunder finished with 16 and the Nuggets had 22 fouls.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one guy who was a major factor in this contest. He scored 36 points on 12 of 29 shooting. He played 34 mins and totaled 3 boards. Gilgeous-Alexander finished the game shooting 41.4% from the floor and dished out 9 assists.

Get all of our NBA Expert Picks

Oklahoma City comes into this matchup with a record of 46-15 so far this year. They currently have an average of 119.5 points per contest (3rd in the league) while hitting 48.4% from the field. The Thunder are connecting on 36.5% on shots from downtown (834 of 2,284) and 82.1% from the charity stripe. As a team, Oklahoma City is collecting 43.9 boards per game and has accounted for 1,565 dimes so far this season, which ranks 15th in basketball in terms of passing the ball. They lose possession via turnover 12.8 times per contest and as a unit are committing 19.3 fouls per contest.

On the defensive end, the Thunder are able to force 17.1 turnovers every game while drawing 21.1 fouls. They give up 36.8% on shots from beyond the arc and they are ranked 2nd in the NBA in PPG from their opponents (108.2). The Thunder are giving up a field goal percentage of 43.7% (2,353 of 5,387) and they concede 45.4 rebounds per contest as a basketball team. They rank 9th in basketball in giving up assists to the opposition with 1,529 relinquished for the season.

For their last game, the Mavericks went home defeated by a final of 124-105 against the Grizzlies. With respect to rebounds, Dallas allowed Memphis to grab 43 in total (10 offensive). They shot 37.5% from beyond the perimeter by connecting on 12 out of 32 and ended up going 18 out of 21 at the free throw line (85.7%). The Mavericks permitted the Grizzlies to convert 47 of their 93 tries from the floor which gave them a rate of 50.5% for the contest. When the final whistle was blown, the Mavericks finished the game shooting 37 out of 88 from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 42.0%. In reference to shooting from downtown, Dallas made 9 out of their 32 tries (28.1%). They were able to make 22 of those for a clip of 66.7%. The Grizzlies were called for 26 fouls in this contest which got the Mavericks to the charity stripe for 33 tries. They coughed up the ball 21 times, while earning 4 steals for the game. The Mavericks pulled down 33 defensive rebounds and 13 offensive boards for a total of 46 for this contest.

Brandon Williams ended up having an impact for the Mavericks in the matchup. He knocked down 5 out of 14 for the contest giving him a field goal percentage of 35.7%, and accounted for 8 rebounds. Williams earned 16 points in his 26 minutes on the hardwood and earned 4 assists for this contest.

Dallas has a record of 21-38 on the season. As an offensive unit, the Mavericks are hitting on 47.3% from the field, which ranks 11th in basketball. Dallas has scored 6,747 pts for the campaign (114.4 per game) and they pull in 44.7 boards per game. They are assisting teammates 25.1 times per contest (24th in the NBA) and they turn it over 14.8 times per game. The Mavericks have committed 18.3 fouls per contest and they connect on 74.0% from the free throw line.

The Dallas defense surrenders 34.3% on shots from 3-point land (724 of 2,113) and their opposition knocks down 77.8% of their free throw shots. They have given up 27.6 dimes and 46.6 boards per game, which ranks them 25th and 27th in the league. The Mavericks on defense are ranked 23rd in the NBA in points per game surrendered with 118.0. They are forcing their opponents into 13.4 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 46.9% from the field (15th in basketball).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Oklahoma City

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Get NBA picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.