San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, 5/18/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Date: Monday, May 18, 2026

Location: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: San Antonio (+6.5)

Paycom Center is the location where the Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18) will go up against the San Antonio Spurs (62-20) on Monday in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Oklahoma City opens this contest as 6.5-point favorites. The over/under is set at 219.5.

The Spurs closed out the Timberwolves by a score of 139-109 in Game 6. In relation to fouls, the Spurs walked away with 21 while the Timberwolves recorded 22 fouls. They also converted 12 out of their 34 attempts from 3-point land. Minnesota ended up going 81.0% from the free throw line by knocking down 17 of their 21 shots. Moreover, Minnesota grabbed 29 rebounds (9 offensive, 20 defensive) and got 13 blocks. Minnesota earned 25 assists and had 9 steals for the contest. Concerning defending, San Antonio allowed the other team to go 37.7% from the floor on 40 out of 106 shooting. They also distributed 34 assists in this matchup in addition to forcing 5 turnovers and having 2 steals. In regard to rebounding, they earned 60 with 12 of them being on the offensive end. From the charity stripe, the Spurs made 23 of 27 shots for a rate of 85.2%. San Antonio ended the contest with a 55.7% FG percentage (49 of 88) and buried 18 out of their 38 shots from beyond the perimeter.

Stephon Castle is one player who was a major contributor for the matchup. Castle finished the game shooting 68.8% from the floor and distributed 6 dimes. He played 30 minutes and also collected 11 boards. He scored 32 points on 11 of 16 shooting.

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San Antonio will enter this game with a record of 62-20 so far this year. They are averaging 119.8 pts per contest (3rd in the NBA) while hitting 48.3% from the field. The Spurs are hitting 35.9% on 3-pointers (1,116 of 3,108) and 78.7% from the free throw line. As a unit, San Antonio is collecting 47.0 boards per game and has racked up 2,302 dimes for the season, which ranks 9th in the league in terms of passing. They are turning it over 13.5 times per contest and as a squad they commit 18.9 fouls on a nightly basis.

On the defensive end, the Spurs have forced 13.0 turnovers on a nightly basis while drawing 20.2 fouls. They surrender 35.2% on 3-point shots and they are ranked 8th in the league in PPG allowed (111.5). The Spurs defensively are giving up a shooting percentage of 45.1% (3,366 of 7,469) and they surrender 42.6 rebounds per contest as a group. They rank 12th in the NBA in allowing assists to their opponents with 2,148 conceded this season.

The Thunder took home the win by a final score of 115-110 when they swept the Lakers. With respect to rebounding, Oklahoma City allowed Los Angeles to pull down 37 in total (7 on the offensive side). They finished 35.7% from three-point range by going 10 out of 28 and finished the game at 24 out of 27 from the free throw line (88.9%). The Thunder allowed the Lakers to knock down 38 out of 75 tries from the floor which gave them a rate of 50.7% in the matchup. When this game wrapped up, the Thunder ended up shooting 42 for 81 from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 51.9%. In relation to shooting from distance, Oklahoma City made 11 out of their 31 tries (35.5%). They were able to convert 20 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 83.3%. The Lakers earned 22 fouls for the contest which got the Thunder to the charity stripe for a total of 24 shots. They turned it over 12 times, while getting 12 steals for this game. The Thunder were able to snag 28 defensive boards and 6 offensive boards for a total of 34 for the matchup.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ended up having an impact for the Thunder in this matchup. He buried 11 of 22 for the matchup giving him a rate of 50.0%, and had 1 rebound. Gilgeous-Alexander totaled 35 points in his 39 minutes of playing time and had 8 dimes in the game.

Oklahoma City has a record of 64-18 on the season. On the offensive side of the ball, the Thunder are shooting 48.4% from the field, which is 5th in the NBA. Oklahoma City has accounted for 9,760 pts on the campaign (119.0 per game) and they pull down 44.1 rebounds per game. Their rate of dishing out assists is at 25.8 times per contest (19th in basketball) and they are losing possession via turnover 12.6 times per contest. The Thunder are committing 19.0 fouls per game and they go 81.7% from the charity stripe.

The Oklahoma City defense concedes 36.9% on shots from beyond the perimeter (1,176 of 3,189) and their opponents are connecting on 74.0% of their free throw shots. They have relinquished 25.0 assists and 45.2 rebounds per contest, which is ranked 5th and 20th in the NBA. The Thunder are ranked 2nd in the league in PPG given up with 107.9. They are able to force 16.7 turnovers per game and have let teams shoot 43.7% from the field (1st in the NBA).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Oklahoma City (-6.5)

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