Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France Pick, 06/28/2025 Predictions UFC 317 Odds

Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France

UFC 317

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas

Saturday, June 28, 2025

Alexandre Pantoja will enter the Octagon with Kai Kara-France at UFC 317 on Saturday, June 28, 2025. The opening moneyline has Pantoja at -265 while Kara-France is at +215.

Alexandre "The Cannibal" Pantoja has a record of 29-5-0. The 35-year-old is fighting at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'5". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 67". Kai "Don't Blink" Kara-France stands in at 5'4" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his total of 25-11-0 (1 NC). The 32-year-old extends his reach 69". Regarding significant strikes, Alexandre Pantoja lands 4.41 per min while Kai Kara-France is connecting on 4.56 significant strikes per minute. Pantoja is landing 50% of the significant strikes he attempts and Kara-France is connecting on 39%. When it comes to defending in the cage, "The Cannibal" absorbs 3.92 significant strikes per minute while "Don't Blink" allows 3.22. Pantoja also prevents 50% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Kara-France is able to stop 65% of the shots thrown in his direction.

Concerning grappling, Alexandre Pantoja is the more capable grappler as he is able to score a takedown 2.74 times per 3 rds. Pantoja is scoring a takedown on 47% of his tries and is defending 68% of the takedowns his opponents try. Kara-France is taking his opponents down on 33% of his takedown attempts and stopping 88% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding going for the sub, Pantoja is the more skilled technician by trying 0.9 submissions per 15 minutes while Kara-France attempts 0.5 submissions per 3 rds.

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In his previous bout, Alexandre Pantoja faced Kai Asakura and took home the win by rear naked choke in round 2. Asakura ended up landing 30 of 44 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Pantoja walked away from this fight having landed 33 of 53 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Asakura landed 17 of 29, which gave him a rate of 58%. He landed 10 of 20 significant strikes to the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Pantoja ended up landing 61% of his significant strikes by landing 32 of 52. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 15 of 33 pointed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Asakura and 93% of them landed by Pantoja were thrown at a distance.

In the last fight for Kai Kara-France, he squared up with Steve Erceg and ended up getting the win by way of a punch to the head in round 1. Erceg connected on 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Kara-France connected on 83% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Kara-France ended up connecting on 35% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 18 of 51. He connected on 11 of 35 significant strikes aimed at the head. Erceg landed 9 of 29 significant strikes in that fight. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 8 of 26 to the head. In relation to total strikes attempted in that fight, Erceg ended up connecting on 9 of 29 and Kara-France connected on 18 of 51 total strikes.

Other fights on the card to keep an eye on

One more match to look forward to is when Brandon Royval fights Joshua Van. Royval has a record of 17-7-0. The 32-year-old will fight at 125 lbs and measures 5'9". The southpaw fighter stretches 68". Van measures 5'5" and weighs 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career record of 14-2-0. The 23-year-old has an arm span of 65". Regarding grappling, Brandon Royval gets a takedown 0.75 times per 3 rds while Joshua Van takes his opponents down 0.96 times per 15 min. When it comes to striking, Royval is landing 4.46 strikes/min and landing 39% of his attempted strikes. The other guy in this fight is Joshua Van, who tags his opponent on 54% of the strikes that he throws and is landing 8.20 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Renato Moicano is set to enter the Octagon against Beneil Dariush. Dariush comes into this bout holding a record of 22-6-1. The 36-year-old weighs 155 lbs and measures 5'10". The southpaw fighter has a reach of 72". Moicano measures in at 5'11" and tips the scales at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 20-6-1. The 36-year-old has an arm span of 72". In the category of takedowns, Beneil Dariush prevents 80% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is finishing his takedown tries on 34% of his tries. Moicano is finishing his takedowns on 44% of the tries he takes and curbs 71% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Concerning striking, Dariush is absorbing 2.65 strikes/min and he deals 3.78 per min. Moicano, on the other hand, is absorbing 3.55 strikes per min and is dealing 4.36 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Kai Kara-France (+215)

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