Andre Fili vs Christian Rodriguez Pick, 08/09/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 109 Odds
Andre Fili vs Christian Rodriguez
UFC Vegas 109
UFC Apex in Las Vegas
Saturday, August 9, 2025
Andre Fili will battle Christian Rodriguez at UFC Vegas 109 on Saturday, August 9, 2025. The line has Fili priced at +200 while Rodriguez is at -235.
Andre "Touchy" Fili walks into the Octagon with a record of 24-12-0 (1 NC). The 35-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and stands 5'11". The orthodox fighter stretches 74". Christian Rodriguez stands in at 5'7" and steps on the scale at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a mark of 12-3-0. The 27-year-old has a reach of 71". With respect to significant strikes, Andre Fili is connecting on 3.84 per minute while Christian Rodriguez is landing 3.63 significant strikes per minute. Fili lands 37% of the significant strikes he attempts and Rodriguez lands 50%. In terms of the fighter's defense, "Touchy" absorbs 4.15 significant strikes per minute and Rodriguez absorbs 2.66. Fili also stops 51% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way while Rodriguez is able to thwart 54% of the shots thrown in his direction.
| UFC Vegas 109 | Andre Fili | Christian Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +200 | -235 |
| Record | 24-12-0 (1 NC) | 12-3-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 10:21 | 12:40 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'7" |
| Weight | 145 lbs | 145 lbs |
| Reach | 74" | 71" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.84 | 3.63 |
| Striking Accuracy | 37% | 50% |
Regarding takedowns, Andre Fili is averaging more takedowns in the cage as he gets a takedown 2.17 times per 15 min. Fili is scoring a takedown on 44% of the times he tries and defending 70% of all takedown tries against him. Rodriguez is taking his opponents down on 46% of his takedown tries and stuffing 69% of the tries against him. Regarding going for the sub, Fili is less apt at going for the finish by going for 0.2 submissions per 3 rds while Rodriguez attempts 1.2 submissions per 15 minutes.
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In his last fight, Andre Fili fought Melquizael Costa and was on the losing end of this fight by way of guillotine choke in round 1. Costa ended up landing 27 of 56 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Fili walked away from this fight having landed 7 of 24 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Costa landed 27 of 56, which means his percentage was 48%. He ended up landing 3 of 25 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Fili landed 29% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 7 of 24. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 4 of 20 pointed at the head. 96% of the significant strikes connected on by Costa and 100% of them landed by Fili were done at a distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Christian Rodriguez, he faced off with Melquizael Costa and took a loss on the night by unanimous decision in round 3. Costa landed 29% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Rodriguez connected on 45% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Rodriguez landed 65% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 64 of 98. He connected on 36 of 69 significant strikes directed at the head. Costa landed 65 of 105 significant strikes in that contest. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 39 of 72 aimed at the head. In relation to the total strikes thrown in this fight, Costa landed 159 of 208 and Rodriguez ended up connecting on 77 of 113 of all the strikes he attempted.
Other fights on the card to watch
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Miles Johns takes on Jean Matsumoto. Johns walks into the cage holding a record of 15-3-0 (1 NC). The 31-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 66". Matsumoto measures in at 5'6" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 16-1-0. The 25-year-old has a wingspan of 68". In the grappling category, Miles Johns takes his opponents to the canvas 0.92 times per 3 rounds while Jean Matsumoto takes his opponents to the mat 2.73 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Johns connects on 3.16 strikes per minute and connecting on 44% of his attempted strikes. The other fighter in this bout is Jean Matsumoto, who is connecting on 41% of the strikes that he throws and lands 5.18 per min.
If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Christian Leroy Duncan is set to face off with Eryk Anders. Anders has a career record of 17-8-0 (1 NC). The 38-year-old will fight at 185 lbs and stands in at 6'1". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 75". Leroy Duncan measures 6'2" and steps on the scale at 185 lbs. The switch fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 11-2-0. The 30-year-old has a reach of 79". Regarding takedowns, Eryk Anders is able to thwart 80% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is finishing his takedowns on 24% of the times he tries. Leroy Duncan is finishing his takedown tries on 11% of his attempts and is able to thwart 72% of all takedown tries against him. With reference to striking, Anders absorbs 4.05 strikes/min and he is connecting on 3.54 strikes/min. Leroy Duncan, notwithstanding, is taking 3.01 strikes per min and is landing 4.75 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Andre Fili (+200)
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