Brian Ortega vs Aljamain Sterling Pick, 08/23/2025 Predictions UFC Shanghai Odds
Brian Ortega vs Aljamain Sterling
UFC Shanghai
Mercedes-Benz Arena in Shanghai, China
Saturday, August 23, 2025
Brian Ortega will enter the Octagon with Aljamain Sterling at UFC Shanghai on Saturday, August 23, 2025. The opening line has Ortega at +230 while Sterling is at -270.
Brian "T-City" Ortega walks into the cage holding a mark of 16-4-0 (1 NC). The 34-year-old weighs 145 lbs and comes in at 5'8". The switch fighter stretches 69". Aljamain "Funk Master" Sterling stands 5'7" and weighs 144 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career mark of 24-5-0. The 36-year-old has an arm span of 71". Concerning significant strikes, Brian Ortega connects on 4.08 per minute and Aljamain Sterling is connecting on 4.41 significant strikes per min. Ortega is connecting on 37% of the significant strikes he throws and Sterling is landing 52%. When it comes to defending in the Octagon, "T-City" takes 6.59 significant strikes per min while "Funk Master" takes 2.21. Ortega also curbs 49% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way while Sterling prevents 58% of them.
| UFC Shanghai | Brian Ortega | Aljamain Sterling |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +230 | -270 |
| Record | 16-4-0 (1 NC) | 24-5-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 12:57 | 13:22 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'7" |
| Weight | 145 lbs | 144 lbs |
| Reach | 69" | 71" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.08 | 4.41 |
| Striking Accuracy | 37% | 52% |
Concerning grappling, Brian Ortega is the lesser skilled wrestler as he is averaging a takedown 1.07 times per 15 min. Ortega is finishing his takedown attempts on 26% of his tries and defending 55% of all takedowns attempted on him. Sterling is finishing his takedown tries on 29% of his takedown tries and defending 42% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding going for the sub, Ortega is the more skilled fighter by attempting 1.1 subs per 15 min while Sterling tries 0.7 subs per 3 rds.
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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Brian Ortega squared up with Diego Lopes and walked away with a loss by unanimous decision in round 3. Lopes landed 113 of 214 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Ortega walked away from this fight having landed 69 of 201 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Lopes ended up landing 106 of 206, which means his percentage was 51%. He landed 75 of 172 significant strikes aimed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Ortega ended up landing 32% of his significant strikes by landing 63 of 195. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he landed 52 of 180 pointed at the head. 70% of the significant strikes connected on by Lopes and 96% of them landed by Ortega were tallied at distance.
In the last fight for Aljamain Sterling, he faced off with Movsar Evloev and was on the losing end of this fight via unanimous decision in round 3. Evloev ended up landing 75% of his significant strikes at distance and Sterling ended up landing 75% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Sterling connected on 46% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 12 of 26. He ended up connecting on 7 of 16 significant strikes aimed at the head. Evloev connected on 8 of 26 significant strikes in that contest. Of those significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 6 of 23 to the head. In terms of total strikes attempted in that contest, Evloev ended up landing 136 of 165 and Sterling connected on 45 of 67 of all the strikes he attempted.
Other fights to watch
One more match to look forward to is when Sergei Pavlovich squares up against Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Pavlovich looks to add a win to his career record of 19-3-0. The 33-year-old tips the scales at 257 lbs and measures 6'3". The southpaw fighter stretches 84". Cortes-Acosta measures in at 6'4" and weighs 260 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 14-1-0. The 33-year-old has a reach of 78". When it comes to grappling, Sergei Pavlovich is able to score a takedown 0.63 times per 3 rounds and Waldo Cortes-Acosta scores a takedown 0.42 times per 3 rounds. Regarding striking, Pavlovich lands an average of 4.54 strikes/minute and connecting on 43% of his attempted strikes. Joining him in the Octagon is Waldo Cortes-Acosta, who lands 48% of the strikes he has thrown and lands an average of 5.98 per minute.
Another must see fight on the night is when Kevin Borjas is set to square up with Sumudaerji. Sumudaerji holds a record of 17-7-0. The 29-year-old records a weight of 125 lbs and measures in at 5'8". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 72". Borjas comes in at 5'5" and steps on the scale at 126 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 10-3-0. The 27-year-old has a wingspan of 68". In terms of wrestling, Sumudaerji is able to stop 67% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is getting his opponent to the mat on 25% of his tries. Borjas is taking his opponents down on 10% of the attempts he tries and deflects 65% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With regard to striking, Sumudaerji is taking 2.63 strikes/minute while he is landing 4.40 per minute. Borjas, notwithstanding, is absorbing 5.99 strikes per min and connects on 5.10 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Aljamain Sterling (-270)
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