Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira Pick, 06/28/2025 Predictions UFC 317 Odds

Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira

UFC 317

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas

Saturday, June 28, 2025

Ilia Topuria will enter the Octagon against Charles Oliveira at UFC 317 on Saturday, June 28, 2025. The opening odds have Topuria coming in at -425 while Oliveira is coming in at +330.

Ilia "El Matador" Topuria looks to add a victory to his career total of 16-0-0. The 28-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and stands 5'7". The orthodox fighter reaches 69". Charles "Do Bronxs" Oliveira measures 5'10" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 35-10-0 (1 NC). The 35-year-old has a reach of 74". Regarding significant strikes, Ilia Topuria is landing 4.69 per minute while Charles Oliveira lands 3.40 significant strikes per min. Topuria is connecting on 47% of the significant strikes he throws while Oliveira is connecting on 55%. In terms of defending in the Octagon, "El Matador" allows 3.84 significant strikes per minute while "Do Bronxs" allows 3.21. Topuria also prevents 64% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction while Oliveira is able to thwart 49% of them.

Concerning takedowns, Ilia Topuria is the not as competent as a wrestler as he gets a takedown 2.02 times per 15 min. Topuria is taking his opponents to the canvas on 61% of the times he tries and defending 92% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Oliveira is getting his opponent to the mat on 40% of his takedown attempts and stuffing 56% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Topuria is the lesser skilled of the two fighters by trying 1.1 submissions per 15 min while Oliveira goes for 2.7 submissions per 15 min.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Ilia Topuria squared up with Max Holloway and wound up taking home the victory by way of a punch to the head in round 3. Holloway ended up landing 84 of 209 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Topuria finished this fight landing 78 of 147 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Holloway ended up landing 79 of 204, which gave him a percentage of 38%. He ended up landing 47 of 151 significant strikes to the head. Statistically, Topuria landed 52% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 75 of 144. Out of those significant strikes, he landed 49 of 114 aimed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Holloway and 94% of them connected on by Topuria were tallied at a distance.

In the last fight for Charles Oliveira, he squared up with Michael Chandler and wound up getting the victory by way of unanimous decision in round 5. Chandler landed 71% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Oliveira connected on 76% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Oliveira ended up connecting on 72% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 88 of 122. He connected on 56 of 82 significant strikes aimed at the head. Chandler ended up landing 84 of 113 significant strikes in that fight. Out of those significant strikes, he landed 59 of 85 to the head. When discussing total strikes that he let go, Chandler ended up connecting on 150 of 181 and Oliveira connected on 117 of 153 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights on the card to watch

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Alexandre Pantoja goes up against Kai Kara-France. Pantoja has a record of 29-5-0. The 35-year-old is fighting at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'5". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 67". Kara-France stands in at 5'4" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his total of 25-11-0 (1 NC). The 32-year-old extends his reach 69". In terms of takedowns, Alexandre Pantoja is averaging a takedown 2.74 times per 15 min while Kai Kara-France is able to score a takedown 0.61 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Pantoja tags his opponents 4.41 strikes per minute and landing 50% of the strikes that he throws. The other fighter in this bout is Kai Kara-France, who lands 39% of his attempted strikes and lands 4.56 per minute.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Joshua Van is set to face off against Brandon Royval. Royval has a record of 17-7-0. The 32-year-old will fight at 125 lbs and measures 5'9". The southpaw fighter stretches 68". Van measures 5'5" and weighs 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career record of 14-2-0. The 23-year-old has an arm span of 65". Concerning grappling, Brandon Royval is able to curb 45% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is taking his opponents down on 75% of the times he tries. Van is taking his opponents down on 63% of his tries and is able to stop 81% of the takedowns his opponents try. With regard to striking, Royval takes 3.06 strikes per min and he connects on 4.46 strikes per minute. Van, on the other side, absorbs 5.26 strikes per minute and is connecting on 8.20 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Ilia Topuria (-425)

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