Julius Walker vs Rafael Cerqueira Pick, 08/09/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 109 Odds
Julius Walker vs Rafael Cerqueira
UFC Vegas 109
UFC Apex in Las Vegas
Saturday, August 9, 2025
Julius Walker will face off against Rafael Cerqueira at UFC Vegas 109 on Saturday, August 9, 2025. The opener has Walker coming in at -600 while Cerqueira is coming in at +425.
Julius "Juice Box" Walker steps into the Octagon with a mark of 6-1-0. The 26-year-old steps on the scale at 205 lbs and stands in at 6'4". The orthodox fighter stretches 78". Rafael "The Lion" Cerqueira stands in at 6'3" and weighs in at 205 lbs. The southpaw fighter comes into this fight with a record of 11-2-0. The 35-year-old has an arm span of 76". Regarding significant strikes, Julius Walker lands 5.73 per min and Rafael Cerqueira lands 3.28 significant strikes per min. Walker lands 50% of the significant strikes he tries and Cerqueira lands 43%. When it comes to defending themselves, "Juice Box" takes 5.80 significant strikes per minute and "The Lion" absorbs 14.43. Walker also stops 40% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt while Cerqueira is able to deflect 42% of the shots thrown his way.
| UFC Vegas 109 | Julius Walker | Rafael Cerqueira |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -600 | +425 |
| Record | 6-1-0 | 11-2-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 15:00 | 1:32 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'3" |
| Weight | 205 lbs | 205 lbs |
| Reach | 78" | 76" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.73 | 3.28 |
| Striking Accuracy | 50% | 43% |
In the category of takedowns, Julius Walker is the more apt grappler as he takes his opponents to the mat 1.00 times per 15 min. Walker is finishing his takedown attempts on 11% of his tries and stuffing 90% of all takedowns attempted on him. Cerqueira is finishing his takedowns on 10% of the takedowns he tries and is stuffing 10% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Walker is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by attempting 0.3 finishes per 3 rds while Cerqueira looks to get 0.8 finishes per 3 rds.
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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Julius Walker faced Alonzo Menifield and wound up walking away in defeat by way of split decision in round 3. Menifield landed 113 of 179 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Walker walked away from this fight having landed 114 of 200 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Menifield ended up landing 87 of 147, which gave him a percentage of 59%. He finished the fight landing 64 of 120 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Walker ended up landing 50% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 86 of 171. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he was 37 of 112 pointed at the head. 89% of the significant strikes connected on by Menifield and 59% of them connected on by Walker were thrown at a distance.
In the last bout for Rafael Cerqueira, he squared up with Modestas Bukauskas and took a loss on the night by a punch to the head in round 1. Bukauskas landed 100% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Cerqueira ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Cerqueira ended up landing 40% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 9 of 22. He landed 4 of 16 significant strikes to the head. Bukauskas ended up landing 16 of 41 significant strikes in that battle. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he connected on 11 of 36 aimed at the head. Regarding the total strikes thrown in this fight, Bukauskas was 16 of 41 while Cerqueira landed 9 of 22 of all the strikes he threw.
Other fights to watch
One more match to look forward to is when Elijah Smith squares up in the Octagon against Toshiomi Kazama. Smith walks into the Octagon holding a record of 8-1-0. The 22-year-old will fight at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 71". Kazama comes in at 5'7" and weighs 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 11-4-0. The 28-year-old stretches 69". In terms of takedowns, Elijah Smith takes his opponents down 4.00 times per 15 min and Toshiomi Kazama gets a takedown 1.68 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Smith connects for an average of 3.83 strikes/min and landing 41% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side of the cage you've got Toshiomi Kazama, who tags the opposition on 53% of the strikes he attempts and is landing 1.72 per min.
If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Gilbert Urbina is set to enter the Octagon against Uros Medic. Medic looks to add a win to his career record of 10-3-0. The 32-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and measures in at 6'1". The southpaw fighter has a wingspan of 71". Urbina stands 6'3" and will fight at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a mark of 7-4-0. The 29-year-old has an arm span of 75". In the category of takedowns, Uros Medic is stopping 55% of his opponents' takedown tries and is finishing his takedown tries on 50% of his attempts. Urbina is taking his opponents down on 44% of the attempts he tries and thwarts 10% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With regard to striking, Medic absorbs 3.46 strikes/min and he is dishing out 5.49 strikes per min. Urbina, on the other hand, is absorbing 4.61 strikes per minute and connects on 5.61 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Rafael Cerqueira (+425)
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