Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim Pick, 07/12/2025 Predictions UFC Nashville Odds
Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim
UFC Nashville
Bridgestone Arena in Nashville
Saturday, July 12, 2025
Stephen Thompson will face off with Gabriel Bonfim at UFC Nashville on Saturday, July 12, 2025. The line has Thompson priced at +310 while Bonfim is priced at -400.
Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson steps into the cage holding a mark of 17-8-1. The 42-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and measures 6'0". The orthodox fighter reaches 75". Gabriel "Marretinha" Bonfim measures 6'1" and weighs 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 17-1-0. The 27-year-old stretches 72". When talking about significant strikes, Stephen Thompson connects on 4.11 per minute and Gabriel Bonfim connects on 5.22 significant strikes per minute. Thompson is connecting on 46% of the significant strikes he attempts and Bonfim is landing 43%. When it comes to defending themselves, "Wonderboy" takes 3.02 significant strikes per min while "Marretinha" allows 3.80. Thompson also defends 55% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way and Bonfim is able to curb 65% of the shots thrown his way.
| UFC Nashville | Stephen Thompson | Gabriel Bonfim |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +310 | -400 |
| Record | 17-8-1 | 17-1-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 14:30 | 6:48 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'1" |
| Weight | 170 lbs | 170 lbs |
| Reach | 75" | 72" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.11 | 5.22 |
| Striking Accuracy | 46% | 43% |
Concerning wrestling, Stephen Thompson is the not as competent as a wrestler as he is averaging a takedown 0.25 times per 3 rounds. Thompson is getting his opponent to the mat on 41% of his attempts and stopping 63% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Bonfim is taking his opponents to the canvas on 76% of his takedown tries and is stuffing 73% of the attempts against him. In terms of going for the submission, Thompson is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by going for 0.6 finishes per 15 minutes while Bonfim attempts 2.2 finishes per 15 min.
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In his last fight, Stephen Thompson squared up with Joaquin Buckley and was on the losing end of this fight by way of a punch to the head in round 3. Buckley ended up landing 55 of 117 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Thompson walked away from this fight having landed 63 of 121 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Buckley landed 34 of 93 , giving him a percentage of 36%. He ended up landing 23 of 78 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Thompson ended up landing 46% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 49 of 106 . Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he landed 38 of 93 pointed at the head. 82% of the significant strikes connected on by Buckley and 73% of them landed by Thompson were done at distance.
In the last bout for Gabriel Bonfim, he went up against Khaos Williams and wound up getting the victory via d'arce choke in round 2. Williams landed 100% of his significant strikes at distance while Bonfim connected on 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Bonfim ended up connecting on 48% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 35 of 72 . He landed 20 of 50 significant strikes to the head. Williams landed 20 of 90 significant strikes in that battle. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up connecting on 8 of 54 directed at the head. Regarding total strikes that he threw in that fight, Williams landed 23 of 94 while Bonfim landed 35 of 72 total strikes.
Other fights to watch out for
An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Calvin Kattar enters the Octagon with Steve Garcia. Kattar looks to add a victory to his total of 23-9-0. The 37-year-old weighs 145 lbs and comes in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter reaches 72". Garcia stands 6'0" and will fight at 145 lbs. The southpaw fighter comes into this bout with a record of 17-5-0. The 33-year-old reaches 75". In the grappling category, Calvin Kattar takes his opponents to the canvas 0.36 times per 3 rounds while Steve Garcia takes his opponents to the canvas 1.17 times per 15 min. When it comes to striking, Kattar is connecting on 4.60 strikes per minute and lands 38% of the strikes that he throws. Joining him in the Octagon is Steve Garcia, who tags the opposition on 56% of the strikes he has tried and is landing 5.04 per minute.
An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Morgan Charriere is set to face off against Nate Landwehr. Landwehr looks to add a victory to his record of 18-6-0. The 37-year-old steps on the scale at 145 lbs and measures 5'9". The orthodox fighter reaches 72". Charriere measures in at 5'8" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 20-11-1. The 29-year-old has an arm span of 69". Concerning wrestling, Nate Landwehr curbs 74% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedown tries on 41% of his tries. Charriere is finishing his takedown tries on 50% of his tries and thwarts 83% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. With regard to striking, Landwehr absorbs 5.77 strikes per min while he connects on 5.59 strikes/min. Charriere, moreover, is absorbing 4.15 strikes/minute and is connecting on 3.46 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Gabriel Bonfim (-400)
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