Chris Padilla vs MarQuel Mederos Pick, 04/11/2026 Predictions UFC 327 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 4/10/2026

Chris Padilla vs MarQuel Mederos

UFC 327

Kaseya Center in Miami

Saturday, April 11, 2026

Chris Padilla will face off with MarQuel Mederos at UFC 327 on Saturday, April 11, 2026. The odds have Padilla priced at -175 while Mederos is priced at +150.

Chris "Taco" Padilla steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 17-6-0. The 30-year-old tips the scales at 155 lbs and stands 5'9". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 74". MarQuel Mederos measures in at 5'10" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 11-1-0. The 29-year-old has a wingspan of 69". In terms of significant strikes, Chris Padilla is connecting on 4.78 per min and MarQuel Mederos is connecting on 4.84 significant strikes per min. Padilla connects on 54% of the significant strikes he throws and Mederos connects on 56%. When it comes to defending themselves, "Taco" absorbs 3.87 significant strikes per min while Mederos allows 2.99. Padilla also defends against 55% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while Mederos curbs 58% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

ufc picks MarQuel Mederos predictions best bet odds

UFC 327	Chris Padilla	MarQuel Mederos
Opening Odds	-175	+150
Record	17-6-0	11-1-0
Average Fight Time	9:34	12:17
Height	5'9"	5'10"
Weight	155 lbs	155 lbs
Reach	74"	69"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.78	4.84
Striking Accuracy	54%	56%

In terms of takedowns, Chris Padilla is the more capable wrestler as he is averaging a takedown 1.18 times per 15 min. Padilla is taking his opponents to the canvas on 30% of his tries and defending 75% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Mederos is getting his opponent to the mat on 15% of his takedown tries and is stopping 83% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. In terms of going for the submission, Padilla is the more capable fighter by attempting 0.4 finishes per 15 minutes while Mederos tries 0.2 finishes per 3 rounds.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Chris Padilla squared up with Ismael Bonfim and ended up winning this fight by way of a punch to the head while on the ground in round 2. Bonfim ended up landing 47 of 89 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Padilla ended the night having landed 88 of 134 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Bonfim ended up landing 42 of 84, which gave him a percentage of 50%. He landed 27 of 68 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Padilla landed 58% of his significant strikes by connecting on 64 of 109. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 33 of 60 pointed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Bonfim and 67% of them connected on by Padilla were thrown at distance.

In the last fight for MarQuel Mederos, he faced off with Mark Choinski and wound up getting the win by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Choinski ended up connecting on 93% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Mederos landed 85% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Mederos ended up connecting on 66% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 110 of 165. He ended up connecting on 63 of 108 significant strikes directed at the head. Choinski ended up landing 58 of 114 significant strikes in that contest. Out of those significant strikes, he connected on 48 of 102 aimed at the head. Relating to the total strikes thrown in this fight, Choinski ended up landing 64 of 120 while Mederos ended up connecting on 115 of 170 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights to watch

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Kelvin Gastelum opposes Vicente Luque. Gastelum will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 21-10-0 (1 NC). The 34-year-old tips the scales at 185 lbs and measures 5'9". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 71". Luque measures in at 5'11" and is weighing in at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 23-12-1. The 34-year-old reaches 75". In the grappling category, Kelvin Gastelum takes his opponents to the canvas 1.01 times per 3 rounds and Vicente Luque is averaging a takedown 0.90 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Gastelum is landing 3.67 strikes/min and connects on 42% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side of the cage we have Vicente Luque, who tags his opponent on 51% of the strikes he has attempted and lands 4.83 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Francisco Prado is set to face off against Charles Radtke. Radtke has a mark of 11-5-0. The 35-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and measures 5'9". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 72". Prado measures in at 5'10" and tips the scales at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 12-4-0. The 23-year-old reaches 69". Regarding takedowns, Charles Radtke is able to curb 86% of his opponents' takedown attempts and is finishing his takedown attempts on 30% of the times he tries. Prado is finishing his takedowns on 19% of his tries and is able to defend against 50% of all takedown tries against him. With reference to striking, Radtke absorbs 2.63 strikes per minute and he dishes out 2.80 strikes per minute. Prado, in contrast, is taking 4.95 strikes per min and is dishing out 4.09 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Chris Padilla (-175)

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Chris Padilla vs MarQuel Mederos Pick, 04/11/2026 Predictions UFC 327 Odds

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