Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa Pick, 05/09/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 117 Odds

Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa

UFC Vegas 117

Meta APEX in Las Vegas

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Clayton Carpenter will face off against Jose Ochoa at UFC Vegas 117 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. The moneyline has Carpenter at +150 while Ochoa is at -175.

Clayton Carpenter will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 8-2-0. The 29-year-old weighs in at 125 lbs and stands 5'6". The orthodox fighter stretches 66". Jose "Kalzifer" Ochoa comes in at 5'7" and tips the scales at 125 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a win to his career record of 8-2-0 (1 NC). The 25-year-old stretches 67". When talking about significant strikes, Clayton Carpenter lands 3.66 per minute while Jose Ochoa lands 3.01 significant strikes per min. Carpenter connects on 53% of the significant strikes he attempts and Ochoa connects on 37%. Regarding defense, Carpenter absorbs 2.57 significant strikes per min while "Kalzifer" takes 2.33. Carpenter also prevents 55% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way and Ochoa defends against 60% of them.

Regarding takedowns, Clayton Carpenter is the more effective wrestler as he takes his opponents to the mat 1.99 times per 3 rounds. Carpenter is taking his opponents to the canvas on 46% of his tries and defending 37% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Ochoa is getting his opponent to the mat on 50% of the takedowns he attempts and stopping 59% of the tries against him. When it comes to going for the submission, Carpenter is not as skilled of a technician by going for 0.7 finishes per 15 minutes while Ochoa looks to get 1.5 finishes per 3 rounds.

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In his previous fight, Clayton Carpenter squared up with Jafel Filho and was on the losing end of this fight by a kimura from half guard in round 1. Filho landed 28 of 38 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Carpenter walked away from this fight having landed 12 of 27 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Filho landed 5 of 13, giving him a percentage of 38%. He finished the fight landing 1 of 6 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Carpenter ended up landing 33% of his significant strikes by landing 7 of 21. Of all the significant strikes, he connected on 2 of 9 aimed at the head. 80% of the significant strikes landed by Filho and 71% of them landed by Carpenter were done at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Jose Ochoa, he squared up with Asu Almabayev and was on the losing end of this fight by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Almabayev landed 59% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Ochoa ended up landing 65% of his significant strikes at distance. Ochoa ended up landing 57% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 26 of 45. He landed 8 of 19 significant strikes aimed at the head. Almabayev ended up landing 22 of 42 significant strikes in that battle. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 12 of 26 to the head. Relating to total strikes thrown in that contest, Almabayev was 55 of 90 while Ochoa connected on 118 of 151 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights to keep an eye on

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Khamzat Chimaev enters the Octagon with Sean Strickland. Chimaev comes into this fight with a mark of 15-0-0. The 32-year-old steps on the scale at 185 lbs and stands 6'2". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 75". Strickland comes in at 6'1" and is fighting at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a mark of 30-7-0. The 35-year-old has an arm span of 76". Concerning takedowns, Khamzat Chimaev is able to score a takedown 5.29 times per 15 min and Sean Strickland takes his opponents to the canvas 0.71 times per 15 minutes. When talking about striking, Chimaev is landing 4.04 strikes/min and is landing 60% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side we have Sean Strickland, who lands 42% of the strikes he attempts and is landing 6.04 per minute.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Tatsuro Taira is set to battle Joshua Van. Van steps into the Octagon with a record of 16-2-0. The 24-year-old records a weight of 125 lbs and stands 5'5". The orthodox fighter stretches 65". Taira measures in at 5'7" and is weighing in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his career record of 18-1-0. The 26-year-old reaches 70". When it comes to takedowns, Joshua Van is able to curb 81% of the takedowns his opponents try and is finishing his takedown attempts on 63% of his tries. Taira is finishing his takedowns on 46% of the tries he takes and stops 45% of all takedown tries against him. In the category of striking, Van absorbs 6.39 strikes/min while he connects on 8.84 per min. Taira, on the other side, takes 2.44 strikes/min and connects on 2.94 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Clayton Carpenter (+150)

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