Colby Thicknesse vs Vince Morales Pick, 05/02/2026 Predictions UFC Perth Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 5/1/2026

Colby Thicknesse vs Vince Morales

UFC Perth

RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia

Saturday, May 2, 2026

Colby Thicknesse will face off with Vince Morales at UFC Perth on Saturday, May 2, 2026. The opening line has Thicknesse priced at -140 while Morales is at +120.

Colby "Slickness" Thicknesse comes into this bout with a record of 8-1-0. The 26-year-old is weighing in at 135 lbs and measures 5'7". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 69". Vince "Vandetta" Morales stands 5'7" and weighs in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a record of 16-10-0. The 35-year-old extends his reach 70". With respect to significant strikes, Colby Thicknesse is connecting on 3.33 per minute and Vince Morales is landing 3.57 significant strikes per min. Thicknesse is connecting on 42% of the significant strikes he attempts while Morales lands 37%. In terms of defending in the Octagon, "Slickness" absorbs 2.80 significant strikes per min and "Vandetta" absorbs 4.00. Thicknesse also stops 50% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Morales is able to thwart 53% of them.

ufc picks Vince Morales predictions best bet odds

UFC Perth	Colby Thicknesse	Vince Morales
Opening Odds	-140	+120
Record	8-1-0	16-10-0
Average Fight Time	15:00	12:47
Height	5'7"	5'7"
Weight	135 lbs	135 lbs
Reach	69"	70"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.33	3.57
Striking Accuracy	42%	37%

Regarding grappling, Colby Thicknesse is the more skilled grappler as he takes his opponents down 1.00 times per 15 min. Thicknesse is getting his opponent to the mat on 9% of the times he tries and is stopping 50% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Morales is finishing his takedowns on 40% of the takedowns he tries and stopping 58% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding submission attempts, Thicknesse is the more able fighter by going for 0.7 subs per 15 minutes while Morales goes for 0.5 subs per 3 rds.

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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Colby Thicknesse fought Josias Musasa and got a win for the night by unanimous decision in round 3. Musasa ended up landing 62 of 118 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Thicknesse walked away from this fight having landed 126 of 199 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Musasa landed 43 of 89, which means his percentage was 48%. He finished the fight landing 26 of 61 significant strikes aimed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Thicknesse ended up landing 55% of his significant strikes by landing 62 of 111. Of those significant strikes, he connected on 48 of 95 pointed at the head. 62% of the significant strikes landed by Musasa and 24% of them landed by Thicknesse were done at distance.

In the last fight for Vince Morales, he battled Raul Rosas Jr. and ended up walking away in defeat by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Jr. connected on 80% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Morales ended up landing 94% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Morales connected on 54% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 17 of 31. He landed 15 of 28 significant strikes directed at the head. Jr. landed 20 of 39 significant strikes in that contest. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 12 of 30 aimed at the head. In relation to total strikes that he threw in that fight, Jr. ended up landing 26 of 46 and Morales landed 39 of 53 total strikes.

Other fights on the card to watch

One more match to look forward to is when Jonathan Micallef squares up against Themba Gorimbo. Micallef will be looking to add a victory to his total of 9-1-0. The 27-year-old is fighting at 170 lbs and stands 6'0". The southpaw fighter reaches 77". Gorimbo stands in at 6'1" and weighs in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career record of 14-6-0. The 35-year-old stretches 77". In terms of takedowns, Jonathan Micallef is averaging a takedown 1.13 times per 3 rds while Themba Gorimbo is able to score a takedown 5.07 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Micallef connects on 3.96 strikes/minute and connects on 41% of the strikes that he throws. Joining him in the Octagon is Themba Gorimbo, who is connecting on 60% of the strikes that he throws and lands 2.72 per minute.

Another must see fight on the night is when Kody Steele is set to square up in the Octagon against Dom Mar Fan. Mar Fan will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 9-2-0. The 26-year-old weighs 155 lbs and stands 5'11". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 75". Steele stands 5'9" and weighs 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his record of 7-1-0. The 31-year-old has an arm span of 71". Regarding wrestling, Dom Mar Fan thwarts 66% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is finishing his takedowns on 50% of his attempts. Steele is taking his opponents down on 14% of the tries he takes and is able to defend against 80% of all takedown attempts. Concerning striking, Mar Fan absorbs 2.49 strikes/minute while he is dealing 3.71 strikes per min. Steele, at the same time, is taking 7.17 strikes per min and lands 4.44 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Colby Thicknesse (-140)

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Pick:	Toronto +.5 (-145)
Start:	May 2, 2026 @ 1:00 PM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Take Toronto +.5 (-145) over San Jose (1 p.m. EST, Saturday May 2) The San Jose Earthquake are surprisingly on top of the Western Conference after 10 matches, three points clear of Vancouver (with one more match played) and seven clear of LAFC. Well, it wasn’t too surprising to us as we have been backing this side from the start. They are a legit championship contender this season. However, we think this will be a tough matchup for them Saturday. The Earthquake had their hands full at St. Louis last weekend, and Toronto is a much better side than St. Louis. This matchup is the Saturday matinee, so we think the early start (10 AM California time) will likely throw San Jose off. It’s tough for any side in MLS to take three points on the road, and getting the half goal all we need is a draw here. Toronto has taken at least a point in four of the last five meetings at home, with three outright wins. Toronto has only three points in their last four matches, but they took a point each against Philly, Austin and Cincinnati, three very solid sides, all here in Toronto. A draw is likely here and an outright win wouldn’t be shocking. Read More Read Less

Colby Thicknesse vs Vince Morales Pick, 05/02/2026 Predictions UFC Perth Odds

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