Elves Brener vs Josiah Harrell Pick, 09/26/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 121 Odds
Elves Brener vs Josiah Harrell
UFC Vegas 121
Meta Apex in Las Vegas
Saturday, September 26, 2026
Elves Brener will face off with Josiah Harrell at UFC Vegas 121 on Saturday, September 26, 2026. The opening line has Brener coming in at +111 while Harrell is at -130.
Elves Brener looks to add a victory to his total of 16-6-0. The 28-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and stands 5'10". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 72". Josiah "The Muscle Hamster" Harrell comes in at 5'7" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 11-1-0. The 27-year-old reaches 68". Concerning significant strikes, Elves Brener connects on 4.76 per minute and Josiah Harrell connects on 2.32 significant strikes per minute. Brener is landing 47% of the significant strikes he throws while Harrell lands 50%. In terms of defending in the cage, Brener allows 5.86 significant strikes per minute and "The Muscle Hamster" takes 10.94. Brener also curbs 50% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Harrell curbs 29% of the shots thrown in his direction.
| UFC Vegas 121 | Elves Brener | Josiah Harrell |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +111 | -130 |
| Record | 16-6-0 | 11-1-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 12:39 | 3:01 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'7" |
| Weight | 155 lbs | 155 lbs |
| Reach | 72" | 68" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.76 | 2.32 |
| Striking Accuracy | 47% | 50% |
When it comes to grappling, Elves Brener is the more apt grappler as he scores a takedown 0.99 times per 15 min. Brener is getting his opponent to the mat on 16% of the times he tries and is defending 76% of all takedown tries against him. Harrell is finishing his takedowns on 15% of his takedown tries and defending 15% of the attempts against him. When it comes to subbing the opposition, Brener is less likely to go for the finish by going for 0.6 subs per 3 rds while Harrell attempts 0.9 subs per 3 rds.
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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Elves Brener squared up with Esteban Ribovics and wound up losing the fight by unanimous decision in round 3. Ribovics ended up landing 123 of 284 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Brener finished this fight landing 123 of 256 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Ribovics ended up landing 122 of 281, which means his percentage was 43%. He finished the fight landing 86 of 233 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Brener landed 47% of his significant strikes by sticking 118 of 250. Of those significant strikes, he landed 88 of 211 to the head. 93% of the significant strikes connected on by Ribovics and 100% of them connected on by Brener were thrown at distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Josiah Harrell, he went up against Jacobe Smith and ended up walking away in defeat by way of punches to the head in round 1. Smith connected on 69% of his significant strikes at distance while Harrell ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Harrell landed 50% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 7 of 14. He landed 1 of 6 significant strikes to the head. Smith ended up connecting on 33 of 47 significant strikes in that fight. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up connecting on 18 of 29 directed at the head. In relation to total strikes that he let go in that contest, Smith ended up connecting on 37 of 51 and Harrell landed 7 of 14 of the strikes he threw in total.
Other fights to watch
Another fight to keep an eye on is when Montel Jackson encounters Ricky Simon. Jackson walks into the cage holding a record of 15-4-0. The 34-year-old is weighing in at 135 lbs and stands 5'10". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 75". Simon stands 5'6" and records a weight of 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his record of 22-7-1. The 34-year-old reaches 69". In the grappling category, Montel Jackson takes his opponents down 2.71 times per 3 rounds while Ricky Simon scores a takedown 4.49 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Jackson lands 3.02 strikes per min and is landing 52% of his attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage you've got Ricky Simon, who lands 42% of the strikes he has tried and lands 3.03 per minute.
An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Alateng Heili is set to take on John Castaneda. Castaneda looks to add a win to his total of 21-8-1. The 34-year-old weighs in at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'6". The switch fighter has a wingspan of 71". Heili stands in at 5'5" and is fighting at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a mark of 17-10-2. The 34-year-old has a wingspan of 66". When it comes to takedowns, John Castaneda curbs 75% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is taking his opponents down on 37% of his tries. Heili is finishing his takedowns on 43% of the attempts he tries and prevents 75% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the matter of striking, Castaneda takes 5.07 strikes/min while he lands 4.95 strikes/minute. Heili, on the contrary, is taking 5.12 strikes per min and is dishing out 2.82 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Elves Brener (+111)
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