Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto Pick, 10/10/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 122 Odds
Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto
UFC Vegas 122
Meta APEX in Las Vegas
Saturday, October 3, 2026
Ernesta Kareckaite will enter the Octagon against Melissa Gatto at UFC Vegas 122 on Saturday, October 3, 2026. The opening moneyline has Kareckaite coming in at -101 while Gatto is priced at -115.
Ernesta "Heavy-Handed" Kareckaite has a career mark of 6-2-1. The 28-year-old weighs 125 lbs and comes in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter reaches 71". Melissa Gatto measures 5'5" and is weighing in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a mark of 9-3-2. The 30-year-old reaches 69". With respect to significant strikes, Ernesta Kareckaite is landing 7.28 per min and Melissa Gatto connects on 3.47 significant strikes per min. Kareckaite is landing 42% of the significant strikes she attempts and Gatto connects on 49%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, "Heavy-Handed" absorbs 6.47 significant strikes per minute while Gatto takes 2.67. Kareckaite also thwarts 49% of the significant strikes her opponents attempt while Gatto is able to stop 54% of the shots thrown.
| UFC Vegas 122 | Ernesta Kareckaite | Melissa Gatto |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -101 | -115 |
| Record | 6-2-1 | 9-3-2 |
| Average Fight Time | 15:00 | 12:44 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'5" |
| Weight | 125 lbs | 125 lbs |
| Reach | 71" | 69" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 7.28 | 3.47 |
| Striking Accuracy | 42% | 49% |
In the category of takedowns, Ernesta Kareckaite is not as effective of a wrestler as she takes her opponents to the canvas 0.75 times per 15 minutes. Kareckaite is scoring a takedown on 60% of her tries and stopping 81% of the takedowns her opponents try. Gatto is getting her opponent to the mat on 27% of the takedowns she tries and defending 58% of the attempts against her. When it comes to subbing opponents, Kareckaite is the more skilled technician by going for 0.8 finishes per 15 min while Gatto looks to get 0.4 finishes per 15 minutes.
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In her previous fight, Ernesta Kareckaite fought Regina Tarin and ended up walking away in defeat via unanimous decision in round 3. Tarin ended up landing 125 of 250 total strikes that she threw in that fight. Kareckaite ended the night having landed 127 of 279 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Tarin landed 114 of 239, which gave her a rate of 47%. She ended up landing 76 of 185 significant strikes to the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Kareckaite ended up landing 42% of her significant strikes by connecting on 105 of 249. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, she was 79 of 212 to the head. 79% of the significant strikes connected on by Tarin and 83% of them landed by Kareckaite were tallied at a distance.
In the last bout for Melissa Gatto, she squared up with Dione Barbosa and walked away with a loss via majority decision in round 3. Barbosa ended up connecting on 53% of her significant strikes at distance while Gatto ended up connecting on 90% of the significant strikes she took from distance. Gatto landed 49% of the significant strikes she attempted by landing 33 of 67. She ended up landing 14 of 40 significant strikes to the head. Barbosa ended up landing 30 of 67 significant strikes in that contest. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, she connected on 19 of 53 aimed at the head. In regard to total strikes thrown, Barbosa landed 108 of 154 and Gatto landed 64 of 109 of the strikes she threw in total.
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An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Brendan Allen squares up in the Octagon against Christian Leroy Duncan. Allen holds a career record of 27-7-0. The 30-year-old records a weight of 185 lbs and measures 6'2". The orthodox fighter stretches 75". Leroy Duncan stands in at 6'2" and records a weight of 185 lbs. The switch fighter holds a record of 15-2-0. The 31-year-old extends his reach 79". Concerning takedowns, Brendan Allen gets his opposition to the mat 1.52 times per 3 rounds while Christian Leroy Duncan takes his opponents to the mat 0.43 times per 3 rounds. When talking about striking, Allen tags his opponents 3.75 strikes per min and is landing 52% of the strikes that he attempts. The other fighter in this bout is Christian Leroy Duncan, who is connecting on 57% of the strikes he attempts and connects on 4.45 per min.
An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Jai Herbert is set to encounter Matheus Camilo. Camilo steps into the cage holding a record of 11-3-0. The 25-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and stands 5'10". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 69". Herbert stands in at 6'1" and steps on the scale at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 14-6-1. The 38-year-old reaches 77". Regarding wrestling, Matheus Camilo is able to curb 15% of his opponents' takedown attempts and is finishing his takedown tries on 53% of the times he tries. Herbert is finishing his takedown tries on 21% of the tries he takes and stops 66% of takedowns his opponents have tried. In the matter of striking, Camilo absorbs 3.05 strikes/min while he deals 2.22 strikes per min. Herbert, at the same time, is taking 3.34 strikes per min and is dishing out 3.19 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Ernesta Kareckaite (-101)
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