Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov Pick, 09/05/2026 Predictions UFC Paris Odds

Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov

UFC Paris

Accor Arena in Paris, France

Saturday, September 5, 2026

Losene Keita will face off against Muhammad Naimov at UFC Paris on Saturday, September 5, 2026. The moneyline has Keita at -350 while Naimov is at +280.

Losene "Black Panther" Keita looks to add a win to his career total of 16-2-0. The 28-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and measures in at 5' 7". The orthodox fighter stretches 72". Muhammad "Hillman" Naimov stands in at 5' 9" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a record of 13-4-0. The 32-year-old has an arm span of 70". In terms of significant strikes, Losene Keita is landing 3.47 per min while Muhammad Naimov is connecting on 2.51 significant strikes per minute. Keita is connecting on 43% of the significant strikes he throws while Naimov is connecting on 40%. Concerning the fighter's defense, "Black Panther" allows 4.47 significant strikes per minute and "Hillman" takes 3.35. Keita also stops 62% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while Naimov thwarts 44% of the shots thrown.

Regarding grappling, Losene Keita is the lesser skilled grappler as he takes his opponents to the mat 0.80 times per 15 min. Keita is getting his opponent to the mat on 15% of the times he tries and stopping 85% of all takedown tries against him. Naimov is finishing his takedown tries on 30% of the takedowns he tries and defending 68% of the tries against him. In terms of submissions, Keita is the more apt fighter by trying 0.8 subs per 3 rounds while Naimov attempts 0.2 subs per 3 rds.

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In his previous fight, Losene Keita squared up with Nathaniel Wood and walked away with a loss by split decision in round 3. Wood ended up landing 67 of 178 total strikes attempted in that contest. Keita finished this fight landing 52 of 119 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Wood ended up landing 67 of 178, which gave him a rate of 37%. He finished the fight landing 32 of 128 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side, Keita landed 43% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 52 of 119. Of all the significant strikes, he was 36 of 101 to the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Wood and 100% of them landed by Keita were done at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Muhammad Naimov, he went up against Mairon Santos and ended up taking the loss by a punch to the head in round 3. Santos landed 70% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Naimov landed 72% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Naimov landed 37% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 18 of 48. He ended up landing 7 of 29 significant strikes to the head. Santos ended up landing 27 of 45 significant strikes in that fight. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up landing 11 of 27 aimed at the head. Discussing total strikes that he let go in that contest, Santos landed 43 of 61 and Naimov landed 35 of 69 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights to watch

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Mario Pinto squares up with Ryan Spann. Pinto steps into the cage holding a record of 12-0-0. The 28-year-old weighs 265 lbs and measures 6' 5". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 79". Spann measures 6' 5" and weighs 264 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career record of 24-11-0. The 35-year-old has an arm span of 79". In terms of takedowns, Mario Pinto is able to score a takedown 2.38 times per 15 min while Ryan Spann is able to score a takedown 1.21 times per 15 minutes. When talking about striking, Pinto lands 2.85 strikes per minute and landing 69% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage you've got Ryan Spann, who connects on 39% of the strikes he attempts and lands an average of 3.11 per min.

Another bout to watch is when Trevor Peek is set to fight Kurtis Campbell. Campbell walks into the cage holding a record of 8-1-0. The 24-year-old weighs in at 145 lbs and comes in at 5' 9". The switch fighter reaches 72". Peek stands in at 5' 9" and records a weight of 145 lbs. The switch fighter will be looking to add a win to his career record of 9-3-0 (1 NC). The 31-year-old reaches 70". Regarding takedowns, Kurtis Campbell is able to thwart 50% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is taking his opponents down on 40% of the times he tries. Peek is taking his opponents down on 50% of his attempts and stops 52% of takedowns his opponents have tried. In the matter of striking, Campbell absorbs 2.63 strikes/min and he is dishing out 3.50 strikes per min. Peek, on the contrary, takes 3.88 strikes per min and is connecting on 4.39 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Losene Keita (-350)

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