Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, 10/10/2025 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury

Date: Friday, October 10, 2025

Location: PHX Arena in Phoenix, AZ

TV: ESPN

The Phoenix Mercury (27-17) play the Las Vegas Aces (30-14) at PHX Arena on Friday in Game 4 of the WNBA Finals. Vegas leads the series 3-0 and opens this matchup as 2.5 point favorites. The total is 163.5.

The Las Vegas Aces earned the victory with a final of 90-88 in Game 3. Las Vegas walked away from the game having earned a 42.6% FG percentage (29 out of 68) and converted 9 of 24 three-point shots. From the charity stripe, the Aces knocked down 23 of 25 tries for a percentage of 92.0%. In the matter of pulling down boards, they compiled a total of 43 with 9 of them being offensive. They also recorded 21 assists in the game in addition to creating 11 turnovers and having 9 steals. When talking about defense, Las Vegas allowed the other team to go 43.9% from the field on 29 of 66 shooting. Phoenix recorded 8 dimes and had 9 steals in the game. In addition, Phoenix had 34 rebounds (8 offensive, 26 defensive) and earned 1 block. Phoenix finished the contest at 74.2% when shooting free throws by knocking down 23 of their 31 shots. They also buried 7 of 21 shots from long range.

A'ja Wilson is one player who was a major factor for the matchup. She accumulated 34 points on 11 of 20 shooting. She played for 38 minutes and also snagged 14 rebounds. Wilson finished the contest at 55.0% from the field and totaled 4 assists.

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Las Vegas steps onto the hardwood with a record of 30-14 on the year. They turn it over 11.9 times per contest and as a unit they are committing 16.6 personal fouls on a nightly basis. As a team, Las Vegas is grabbing 33.5 rebounds per contest and has accounted for 861 dimes this year, which has them ranked 9th in basketball in terms of passing. The Aces are shooting 35.1% on three-point attempts (400 of 1,138) and 82.4% from the free throw line. They average 83.6 points per outing (6th in the WNBA) while connecting on 43.9% from the field. On the defensive end, the Aces are able to force 12.5 turnovers on a nightly basis and they draw 17.2 fouls. The Aces defense is allowing an opponent shooting percentage of 43.6% (551 of 758) and they surrender 35.0 boards per game as a team. They are ranked 9th in basketball in giving up assists with 897 surrendered on the season. They are giving up 31.6% on 3-point attempts and they are ranked 7th in the WNBA in points per game allowed (80.7).

In Game 3, the Mercury pulled down 26 defensive boards and 8 offensive rebounds for a total of 34 in the game. They coughed up the ball 11 times, while getting 9 steals in this contest. The Aces had 15 personal fouls for the matchup which took the Mercury to the free throw line for a total of 31 tries. They were able to convert 23 of them for a rate of 74.2%. When discussing three-point attempts, Phoenix buried 7 of 21 tries (33.3%). When all was said and done, the Mercury finished shooting 29 for 66 from the floor which gave them a percentage of 43.9%. The Mercury allowed the Aces to bury 29 of 68 attempts from the field which gave them a percentage of 42.6% for this game. They finished 37.5% from distance by shooting 9 out of 24 and ended up going 23 of 25 from the charity stripe (92.0%). In regard to how they rebounded, Phoenix permitted Las Vegas to pull down 43 in total (9 on the offensive side).

DeWanna Bonner ended up having an impact for the Mercury in the matchup. She made 7 of 11 for the contest for a rate of 63.6%, and had 10 rebounds. Bonner had 25 points in her 31 minutes on the hardwood, but wasn't able to notch an assist.

Phoenix has a mark of 27-17 on the campaign. Phoenix has accounted for 3,643 points for the campaign (82.8 per game) and they grab 34.7 boards per contest. The Mercury have committed 17.8 fouls per contest and they shoot 78.4% from the charity stripe. As an offensive unit, the Mercury are shooting 43.3% from the field, which is ranked 9th in basketball. They are earning an assist 21.0 times per game (5th in the league) and they turn it over 12.5 times per contest. The Mercury on the defensive side of the court are 5th in the league in points allowed per game with 80.1. They have allowed 19.7 dimes and 35.3 boards on a nightly basis, which has them ranked 6th and 10th in the WNBA. The Phoenix defense allows 32.1% on shots from 3-point land (347 of 1,082) and their opponents are converting on 80.4% of their free throw attempts. They are forcing 13.8 turnovers on a nightly basis and have allowed teams to shoot 42.7% from the floor (4th in basketball).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Las Vegas (-2.5)

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