Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, 10/3/2025 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces

Date: Friday, October 3, 2025

Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, NV

TV: ESPN

Michelob ULTRA Arena is the site where and the Las Vegas Aces (30-14) will take on the Phoenix Mercury (27-17) on Friday in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals. Vegas opens as 2.5 point favorites while the total opens at 160.5.

The Phoenix Mercury played the Minnesota Lynx and walked away with a win by a score of 86-81 to close out their series. Phoenix walked away from the game having earned a 42.6% field goal percentage (29 of 68) and made 11 of their 28 shots from beyond the perimeter. At the free throw line, the Mercury converted 17 of 23 tries for a percentage of 73.9%. When it comes to hauling in boards, they collected a total of 38 with 7 of them being on the offensive end. They also dished out 20 dimes for the game as well as forcing 6 turnovers and getting 2 steals. When talking about the defense, Phoenix allowed the other team to shoot 41.6% from the floor on 32 out of 77 shooting. Minnesota recorded 4 dimes and had 8 steals for this contest. Furthermore, Minnesota totaled 34 rebounds (4 offensive, 30 defensive) and added 6 blocks. Minnesota finished the game shooting 88.9% from the charity stripe by making 8 of 9 shots. They also converted 9 of their 24 tries from long range.

Alyssa Thomas is a player who was a major contributor for the matchup. She notched 23 points on 11 out of 18 shooting. She was on the hardwood for 37 minutes and grabbed 8 rebounds. Thomas ended up shooting 61.1% from the field and dished out 10 assists.

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Phoenix comes into this game with a win-loss mark of 27-17 for the year. The Mercury are shooting 34.0% on 3-point shots (414 of 1,217) and 78.4% from the charity stripe. They are averaging 82.8 pts per game (7th in the league) while shooting 43.3% from the field. They lose possession via turnover 12.5 times per contest and as a team are committing 17.8 personal fouls on a nightly basis. As a unit, Phoenix is collecting 34.7 boards per game and has accumulated 922 assists on the season, which is 5th in basketball in terms of passing the ball. On the defensive end of the court, the Mercury are able to force 13.8 turnovers per contest and they draw 16.4 personal fouls. The Mercury defense is giving up an opponent shooting percentage of 42.7% (609 of 723) and they surrender 35.3 boards per contest as a group. They currently rank 6th in the league in allowing assists to the opposition with 868 surrendered for the campaign. They relinquish 32.1% on shots from beyond the arc while they are 5th in the WNBA in PPG allowed (80.1).

When they last stepped on the hardwood, the Las Vegas Aces went home victorious in OT with a score of 107-98 when they faced the Indiana Fever to win that series. The Aces collected 19 defensive boards and 3 offensive boards totaling 22 in the matchup. They also coughed it up 15 times, while recording 9 steals in this contest. The Fever committed 17 fouls in this game which took the Aces to the charity stripe for 22 tries. They were able to make 20 of those for a percentage of 90.9%. With respect to 3-pointers, Las Vegas made 11 out of 26 attempts (42.3%). When the final whistle blew, the Aces walked away from this one shooting 38 for 80 from the field which had them at 47.5%. The Aces allowed the Fever to convert 35 out of 73 attempts from the field which left them with a shooting percentage of 47.9% for this contest. They went 41.2% from distance by connecting on 7 of 17 and finished the contest at 21 of 24 from the free throw line (87.5%). In the matter of rebounds, Las Vegas permitted Indiana to snag 34 overall (8 offensive).

A'ja Wilson was important for the Aces for this contest. She made 13 of 27 for the game giving her a field goal percentage of 48.1%, and added 8 rebounds. Wilson scored 35 points in her 41 mins on the court and earned 5 dimes for this contest.

Las Vegas has a record of 30-14 on the season. As an offense, the Aces are connecting on 43.9% from the field, which is ranked 8th in basketball. Las Vegas has tallied 3,680 pts on the campaign (83.6 per contest) and they snag 33.5 boards per game. They are dishing out assists 19.6 times per game (9th in the WNBA) and they turn it over 11.9 times per game. The Aces commit 16.6 fouls per contest while shooting 82.4% from the charity stripe. The Aces on defense are ranked 7th in basketball in PPG given up with 80.7. They have forced 12.5 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 43.6% from the floor (6th in basketball). The Las Vegas defense concedes 31.6% on shots from distance (318 of 1,007) and their opponents are making 81.5% of their shots from the free throw line. They surrender 20.4 assists and 35.0 boards on a nightly basis, which is 9th and 9th in the league.

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Phoenix (+2.5)

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