Phoenix Mercury vs Washington Mystics Prediction, 9/4/2025 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Phoenix Mercury vs Washington Mystics

Date: Thursday, September 4, 2025

Location: CareFirst Arena in Washington, DC

TV: WNBA League Pass

The Washington Mystics (16-25) host the Phoenix Mercury (26-14) at CareFirst Arena on Thursday.

The Phoenix Mercury faced off with the Indiana Fever and took home the win by a score of 85-79 in their last game. Phoenix wrapped up the game having earned a 45.5% FG percentage (30 out of 66) and converted 6 of their 21 shots from beyond the arc. At the free throw line, the Mercury converted 19 of their 23 shots for a percentage of 82.6%. When it comes to pulling down rebounds, they earned a total of 36 with 6 of them being of the offensive variety. They also dished out 24 dimes in this contest while forcing the opposition into 12 turnovers and earning 6 steals. With respect to the defense, Phoenix allowed the other team to shoot 42.7% from the floor on 32 of 75 shooting. Indiana earned 12 dimes and had 5 steals for the contest. Additionally, Indiana pulled down 40 rebounds (12 offensive, 28 defensive) and earned 3 rejections. Indiana finished the game at 75.0% at the charity stripe by burying 6 of 8 shots. They knocked down 9 of 25 shots from long range.

Alyssa Thomas is a player who was a factor in this matchup. She scored 23 points on 9 out of 17 shooting. She played for 34 mins and pulled down 9 rebounds. Thomas finished 52.9% from the field and dished out 9 assists.

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Phoenix comes into this game with a record of 26-14 so far this season. The Mercury are connecting on 33.7% on three-point shots (368 of 1,093) and 79.0% from the charity stripe. They average 83.1 points per outing (6th in the league) while connecting on 43.5% from the floor. They lose possession via turnover 12.5 times per game and as a squad are committing 17.7 personal fouls on a nightly basis. As a unit, Phoenix is collecting 34.7 boards per game and has earned 838 assists so far this season, which ranks 6th in the league in terms of passing the ball. Defensively, the Mercury are able to force 14.2 turnovers per game while drawing 16.7 personal fouls. The Mercury are giving up a FG percentage of 42.6% (569 of 666) and they relinquish 35.0 boards per contest as a basketball team. They are ranked 4th in the league in giving up assists with 786 surrendered for the year. They are conceding 32.4% from 3-point land while they are 4th in the WNBA in points per game allowed (79.6).

In their last game, the Washington Mystics went home defeated by a final of 81-78 against the Los Angeles Sparks. The Mystics were able to collect 31 defensive rebounds and 9 offensive boards totaling 40 in the game. They also gave up possession 11 times, while recording 9 steals in this game. The Sparks had 18 fouls in this game which took the Mystics to the free throw line for a total of 18 tries. They were able to knock down 13 of them for a rate of 72.2%. When discussing shots from beyond the perimeter, Washington made 9 of their 23 tries (39.1%). In all, the Mystics shot 28 out of 72 from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 38.9%. The Mystics allowed the Sparks to convert 28 of 70 attempts from the field which left them with a shooting percentage of 40.0% in this game. They went 27.8% from 3-point land by shooting 10 out of 36 and ended up shooting 15 of 18 from the free throw line (83.3%). In the matter of how they cleaned up the glass, Washington permitted Los Angeles to grab 40 in all (7 on the offensive side).

Kiki Iriafen pitched in for the Mystics in this matchup. She made 8 of 20 for the matchup for a field goal rate of 40.0%, and earned 13 rebounds. Iriafen scored 22 points in her 27 mins on the hardwood and totaled 1 assist in this matchup.

Washington has a record of 16-25 for the year. The Mystics are committing 18.4 fouls per contest and they hit 75.9% from the free throw line. They are earning an assist 19.2 times per contest (10th in the league) and they are losing possession via turnover 14.3 times per contest. Washington has 3,194 points on the year (77.9 per game) and they collect 33.0 boards per contest. As an offense, the Mystics are connecting on 44.1% from the field, which is ranked 6th in the WNBA. The Mystics are ranked 8th in the WNBA in points allowed per game with 81.6. They relinquish 19.9 assists and 32.1 total rebounds per game, which ranks them 8th and 2nd in the league. The Washington defense gives up 32.6% from downtown (324 of 993) and their opponents are knocking down 79.7% of their shots from the free throw line. They have forced 12.7 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 44.4% from the field (8th in basketball).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Washington

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