Atlanta Dream vs New York Liberty Prediction, 10/9/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Atlanta Dream vs New York Liberty

Date: Friday, October 9, 2026

Location: Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY

TV: ESPN2

Odds/Point Spread: Atlanta (+3.5)

Barclays Center is the site where and the New York Liberty (26-18) will take on the Atlanta Dream (30-14) on Friday in Game 3 of the WNBA Semifinals. Atlanta leads 2-0. The odds on this matchup have New York as 3.5 point favorites. The total has been set at 172.5.

The Atlanta Dream took home the win by a score of 101-98 in Game 2. Atlanta walked away from the contest having earned a 40.5% FG percentage (34 of 84) and made 12 out of their 30 3-pointers. At the charity stripe, the Dream buried 21 of 23 shots for a percentage of 91.3%. When it comes to grabbing boards, they earned a total of 34 with 9 of them being of the offensive sort. They also doled out 20 dimes for the matchup while creating 19 turnovers and getting 14 steals. In relation to the defense, Atlanta allowed 54.7% from the field on 35 of 64 shooting. New York earned 7 dimes and had 6 steals for this game. In addition, New York collected 34 boards (7 offensive, 27 defensive) and earned 9 blocked shots. New York walked away from this one shooting 69.6% at the charity stripe by knocking down 16 of their 23 tries. They made 12 of 25 tries from beyond the arc.

Jordin Canada is a player who was a major factor for the game. She was able to score 23 points on 9 of 15 shooting. She played 39 minutes played and totaled 5 rebounds. Canada finished shooting 60.0% from the field and also dished out 8 assists.

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Atlanta heads into this contest with a record of 30-14 so far this year. The Dream are connecting on 32.5% on 3-point shots (394 of 1,212) and 78.6% from the free throw line. They currently have an average of 91.3 points per outing (3rd in the WNBA) while shooting 44.2% from the floor. They are losing possession via turnover 12.6 times per game and as a team they commit 19.6 personal fouls on a nightly basis. As a unit, Atlanta is snagging 35.6 rebounds per game and is sitting with 944 dimes on the year, which is 6th in the WNBA in terms of passing. When they are on the defensive end, the Dream are able to force 15.4 turnovers per game while drawing 21.2 fouls. They are giving up 34.8% on 3-pointers and they are ranked 4th in the WNBA in points per game allowed (84.5). The Dream defensively are allowing a FG percentage of 46.9% (676 of 934) and they concede 31.0 rebounds per game as a squad. They are 3rd in the WNBA in giving up assists to the opposition with 843 surrendered on the season.

In Game 2, the Liberty snagged 31 defensive boards and 5 offensive rebounds totaling 36 for the matchup. They gave up possession 16 times, while getting 6 steals for the contest. The Dream committed 18 personal fouls in this contest which took the Liberty to the charity stripe for 23 shots. They were able to make 16 of them for a percentage of 69.6%. With respect to shots from distance, New York knocked down 12 out of their 25 tries (48.0%). Overall, the Liberty finished the game shooting 35 out of 64 from the floor which had them sitting at 54.7%. The Liberty allowed the Dream to knock down 34 out of their 84 tries from the floor which gave them a percentage of 40.5% in the matchup. They wrapped up this game 40.0% from 3-point land by shooting 12 out of 30 and finished the contest at 21 out of 23 from the free throw line (91.3%). When talking about cleaning the glass, New York allowed Atlanta to get 35 overall (11 offensive).

Breanna Stewart ended up being a factor for the Liberty in this contest. She made 11 of 21 for the contest giving her a field goal percentage of 52.4%, and totaled 11 rebounds. Stewart totaled 35 points in her 43 minutes on the hardwood and totaled 6 assists for the matchup.

New York has a mark of 26-18 for the season. The Liberty have committed 18.7 fouls per contest while shooting 84.5% from the charity stripe. They are assisting teammates 20.8 times per game (7th in the WNBA) and they are turning it over 13.7 times per game. New York has totaled 3,941 points so far this season (89.6 per game) and they pull in 35.5 boards per game. When it comes to offensive execution, the Liberty are connecting on 46.0% from the floor, which ranks 6th in the WNBA. The Liberty on the defensive end are ranked 7th in the WNBA in points given up per game with 86.4. The New York defense concedes 34.2% on 3-point attempts (395 of 1,154) and their opponents are knocking down 75.1% of their foul shots. They have conceded 21.4 dimes and 31.5 total rebounds per game, which ranks them 11th and 3rd in the WNBA. They are able to force 11.0 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 44.8% from the floor (7th in the WNBA).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Atlanta (+3.5)

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