Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings Prediction, 6/11/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings

Date: Thursday, June 11, 2026

Location: College Park Center in Arlington, TX

TV: Prime Video

Odds/Point Spread: Phoenix (+4.5)

The Dallas Wings (7-4) play the Phoenix Mercury (4-9) at College Park Center on Thursday. Phoenix opens this matchup as 4.5 point dogs. The O/U opens at 169.5.

The Phoenix Mercury faced off with the Golden State Valkyries and went home with a loss by a final score of 87-81 in their last contest. Phoenix ended the game having earned a 46.2% field goal percentage (30 of 65) and buried 9 of their 25 shots from distance. At the free throw line, the Mercury knocked down 12 of their 18 tries for a rate of 66.7%. In reference to rebounding, they compiled 33 with 9 of them being offensive. They also recorded 23 assists in this game while forcing the opposition into 9 turnovers and earning 7 steals. In reference to defense, Phoenix allowed their opponent to shoot 44.3% from the field on 27 of 61 shooting. Golden State totaled 6 assists and had 8 steals in this game. Furthermore, Golden State collected 27 rebounds (6 offensive, 21 defensive) and added 2 rejections. Golden State went 82.1% from the free throw line by knocking down 23 of 28 attempts. They also made 10 of their 29 tries from beyond the arc.

Alyssa Thomas is one player who came through in this game. She ended up finishing with 22 points on 9 of 14 shooting. She was on the hardwood for 32 minutes and also grabbed 8 rebounds. Thomas finished 64.3% from the floor and dished out 9 assists.

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Phoenix steps onto the court with a mark of 4-9 for the campaign. The Mercury are hitting 31.3% on three-point shots (98 of 313) and 80.4% from the charity stripe. They have an average of 81.6 pts per game (11th in basketball) while going 41.7% from the floor. They are turning it over 12.5 times per game and as a team they commit 18.6 fouls on a nightly basis. As a team, Phoenix is pulling in 31.8 rebounds per game and is sitting with 238 assists for the campaign, which ranks 6th in the WNBA in terms of passing. On the defensive end of the court, the Mercury are forcing 13.5 turnovers per contest while drawing 21.7 personal fouls. They are 13th in the WNBA in giving up assists to the opposition with 257 relinquished for the season. The Mercury defense is allowing a field goal percentage of 45.8% (175 of 282) and they surrender 33.8 boards per game as a basketball team. They are giving up 38.0% on shots from distance and they rank 7th in the league in PPG allowed (85.1).

When they last played, the Dallas Wings took a defeat with a final score of 100-76 when they played the Minnesota Lynx. The Wings snagged 23 defensive rebounds and 8 offensive rebounds for a total of 31 for this game. They turned the ball over 12 times, while recording 9 steals in the game. The Lynx committed 11 fouls in this matchup which took the Wings to the free throw line for a total of 10 tries. They were able to make 10 of the free throw tries for a clip of 100.0%. In the matter of 3-pointers, Dallas made 8 out of 28 attempts (28.6%). Overall, the Wings went 29 out of 77 from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 37.7%. The Wings permitted the Lynx to knock down 38 of their 71 tries from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 53.5% for this contest. They shot 50.0% from beyond the arc by connecting on 7 out of 14 and walked away from this one shooting 17 of 18 at the charity stripe (94.4%). When talking about cleaning up the glass, Dallas permitted Minnesota to pull down 4 overall (6 on the offensive glass).

Paige Bueckers was important for the Wings for the contest. She knocked down 9 of 16 in the game for a field goal rate of 56.3%, and had 1 rebound. Bueckers earned 23 points in her 30 mins on the court and accounted for 2 assists in the game.

Dallas has a win-loss mark of 7-4 so far this year. The Wings have committed 18.5 fouls per game and they go 78.0% from the free throw line. They are earning an assist 23.2 times per contest (1st in the WNBA) and they cough up possession 10.4 times per contest. Dallas has 970 pts on the campaign (88.2 per contest) and they snag 33.2 rebounds per game. As an offense, the Wings are hitting on 45.2% from the field, which ranks 4th in the WNBA. The Wings are ranked 6th in the WNBA in points given up per game with 84.5. The Dallas defense gives up 32.9% on shots from 3-point land (74 of 225) and opponents are converting on 81.0% of their free throw attempts. They have allowed 19.4 assists and 33.3 rebounds per contest, which ranks them 8th and 8th in the league. They are forcing 13.0 TO's per game and allow teams to shoot 47.5% from the field (15th in the WNBA).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Phoenix (+4.5)

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