Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings Prediction, 9/19/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings

Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026

Location: College Park Center in Arlington, TX

TV: CBS

Odds/Point Spread: Phoenix (8.5)

College Park Center is the venue where and the Dallas Wings (25-16) will play the Phoenix Mercury (15-26) on Saturday. Dallas opens this game as 8.5 point favorites. The over/under is set at 173.5.

The Phoenix Mercury faced the Portland Fire and notched a win by a score of 94-91 in their last contest. Phoenix finished having earned a 49.1% field goal percentage (28 of 57) and converted 12 out of their 25 3-point attempts. At the charity stripe, the Mercury buried 26 of their 30 attempts for a rate of 86.7%. Concerning pulling down rebounds, they compiled 29 with 7 of them being of the offensive variety. They also dished out 23 assists in the matchup as well as forcing the other team into 17 turnovers and having 10 steals. When discussing the defense, Phoenix allowed the other team to go 46.8% from the field on 29 out of 62 shooting. Portland distributed 8 dimes and had 12 steals in this contest. On top of that, Portland collected 25 rebounds (8 offensive, 17 defensive) and got 3 rejections. Portland ended up shooting 75.0% from the free throw line by burying 21 of their 28 attempts. They knocked down 12 of their 30 shots from three-point range.

Shay Ciezki is a player who had an impact in the game. She ended up with 22 points on 5 of 8 shooting. She was on the hardwood for 21 mins and collected 2 rebounds. Ciezki finished 62.5% from the field and earned 3 assists.

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Phoenix comes into this matchup with a record of 15-26 this year. They lose possession by turning the ball over 13.0 times per contest and as a unit are committing 18.8 personal fouls per game. As a unit, Phoenix is pulling in 31.5 rebounds per game and has tallied 828 assists for the season, which is 10th in basketball in terms of passing. The Mercury are hitting 33.1% on shots from 3-point land (327 of 988) and 78.9% from the charity stripe. They currently have an average of 84.4 points per game (11th in the league) while going 44.6% from the field. On the defensive end, the Mercury are forcing their opponents into 13.1 turnovers per contest and they draw 21.5 fouls. They rank 12th in the league in allowing assists to the opposition with 875 conceded so far this year. The Mercury are allowing an opponent FG percentage of 46.3% (537 of 883) and they concede 33.9 boards per contest as a unit. They are giving up 35.9% from 3-point land and they are ranked 8th in the WNBA in points per game allowed (87.4).

The last time they took the court, the Dallas Wings walked away with a victory by a final of 97-77 when they faced the Los Angeles Sparks. The Wings were able to corral 36 defensive rebounds and 10 offensive rebounds totaling 46 for this game. They also turned it over 18 times, while earning 9 steals in the matchup. The Sparks committed 12 personal fouls for this game which took the Wings to the free throw line for 14 attempts. They were able to convert 11 of the free throw attempts for a percentage of 78.6%. In reference to shots from distance, Dallas buried 10 out of their 30 attempts (33.3%). When the final whistle blew, the Wings ended up shooting 38 out of 75 from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 50.7%. The Wings permitted the Sparks to convert 29 of their 78 tries from the field which left them with a shooting percentage of 37.2% for this contest. They went 28.0% from 3-point land by connecting on 7 out of 25 and walked away from this one shooting 12 out of 19 from the free throw line (63.2%). With respect to rebounding, Dallas permitted Los Angeles to snag 27 in all (7 on the offensive side).

Paige Bueckers ended up being a major contributor for the Wings in this matchup. She knocked down 8 of 13 for the matchup for a field goal rate of 61.5%, and earned 6 rebounds. Bueckers earned 19 points in her 26 minutes on the court and tallied 3 dimes for the contest.

Dallas has a win-loss record of 25-16 for the season. As an offense, the Wings are shooting 46.8% from the field, which is ranked 4th in the WNBA. Dallas has accounted for 3,657 pts for the season (89.2 per game) and they average 34.6 rebounds per game. They are earning an assist 22.0 times per game (2nd in the WNBA) and they are losing possession via turnover 11.1 times per game. The Wings are committing 18.3 personal fouls per game and they shoot 79.1% from the charity stripe. The Wings on the defensive end are ranked 5th in the league in PPG allowed with 85.1. They are forcing their opponents into 12.1 TO's per game and allow teams to shoot 44.8% from the floor (7th in the league). The Dallas defense allows 33.4% on 3-pointers (334 of 999) and opponents are converting on 80.0% of their shots from the charity stripe. They relinquish 19.8 dimes and 33.4 rebounds on a nightly basis, which has them ranked 4th and 7th in basketball.

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Phoenix (+8.5)

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