Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, 7/11/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces

Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026

Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, NV

TV: Peacock

Odds/Point Spread: Phoenix (+9.5)

The Phoenix Mercury (8-15) head to Michelob ULTRA Arena on Saturday where they'll take on the Las Vegas Aces (16-6). Phoenix opens this contest as 9.5 point underdogs. The O/U opens at 172.5.

The Phoenix Mercury faced off with the Indiana Fever and went home with a loss by a final score of 92-89 in their last game. Phoenix finished with a 49.3% FG percentage (35 out of 71) and made 11 out of their 27 shots from beyond the arc. When they shot from the free throw line, the Mercury made 8 of 10 tries for a rate of 80.0%. When talking about grabbing rebounds, they collected 27 with 4 of them being on the offensive end. They also distributed 23 assists in the game while forcing the opposition into 10 turnovers and getting 4 steals. In reference to the defense, Phoenix allowed the other team to go 50.0% from the field on 35 of 70 shooting. Indiana dished out 6 assists and had 8 steals for this game. Moreover, Indiana pulled down 30 rebounds (6 offensive, 24 defensive) and added 4 blocks. Indiana finished the game shooting 100.0% at the free throw line by knocking down 10 of 10 attempts. They knocked down 12 of 27 attempts from distance.

Kahleah Copper is a player who was a factor in this matchup. She finished with 22 points on 9 out of 17 shooting. She was on the court for 32 mins and also grabbed 5 boards. Copper finished 52.9% from the field and recorded 2 assists.

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Phoenix steps onto the hardwood with a mark of 8-15 on the season. They lose possession by turning the ball over 13.0 times per contest and as a squad are committing 18.2 personal fouls per game. As a team, Phoenix is pulling down 32.0 rebounds per game and has tallied 440 assists for the season, which has them ranked 7th in the league in terms of passing the ball. The Mercury are shooting 33.1% on 3-pointers (187 of 565) and 78.9% from the charity stripe. They average 83.7 points per game (11th in the league) while connecting on 43.7% from the field. On the defensive end of the court, the Mercury are able to force 13.2 turnovers per game while drawing 21.2 fouls. The Mercury are giving up a shooting percentage of 46.0% (303 of 487) and they concede 33.3 boards per game as a squad. They currently rank 13th in the WNBA in allowing assists to the opposition with 473 conceded for the year. They are giving up 37.2% on 3-point shots and they are ranked 8th in the league in opponents points per game (85.7).

In their last game, the Las Vegas Aces got the victory with a final of 88-80 when they faced the Portland Fire. The Aces were able to collect 23 defensive boards and 4 offensive rebounds for a total of 27 in this game. They also coughed it up 12 times, while recording 13 steals for the game. The Fire committed 19 fouls for this game which got the Aces to the free throw line for 22 tries. They were able to knock down 18 of the free throw attempts for a percentage of 81.8%. When talking about 3-point shots, Las Vegas knocked down 8 of their 20 attempts (40.0%). When all was said and done, the Aces went 31 for 61 from the floor which gave them a rate of 50.8%. The Aces allowed the Fire to bury 27 of 61 tries from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 44.3% for this game. They wrapped up this game 34.4% from downtown by shooting 11 out of 32 and walked away from this one shooting 15 of 20 at the charity stripe (75.0%). In regard to rebounds, Las Vegas allowed Portland to snag 30 in all (6 on the offensive side).

A'ja Wilson ended up having an impact for the Aces in this contest. She buried 10 of 19 in the matchup for a rate of 52.6%, and had 10 rebounds. Wilson earned 32 points in her 30 mins of playing time and earned 3 assists for this game.

Las Vegas has a win-loss record of 16-6 for the year. Las Vegas has 1,977 pts this season (89.9 per contest) and they average 34.6 rebounds per contest. The Aces have committed 17.5 fouls per game and they hit 77.3% from the charity stripe. As an offensive team, the Aces are connecting on 48.7% from the floor, which has them ranked 1st in the league. Their rate of dishing out assists is at 22.3 times per game (1st in the WNBA) and they turn the ball over 12.4 times per game. The Aces are ranked 9th in the league in points allowed per contest with 86.1. They relinquish 19.0 assists and 33.0 total boards per game, which ranks 3rd and 6th in basketball. The Las Vegas defense allows 35.1% on 3-point shots (198 of 564) and their opposition makes 79.6% of their free throw shots. They are forcing 12.0 TO's per game and have allowed teams to shoot 43.8% from the floor (7th in the league).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Phoenix (+9.5)

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