College Football Power Rankings: The Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 09/13/2007
Polls and rankings can be a gambler's best friend when it comes to wagering on large groups of vicious and volatile college students, the type that paint their faces, don high density polyurethane shells, and assemble each week to thrash each other on the gridiron. Polls and rankings set the general consensus on how strong a certain team is, regardless of Truth, and that makes them a tool for exploiting a misinformed betting public.
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But this ranking system is going to work a little differently. We have enough rampant conjecture across the nation in regards to college football so I have set out to provide my faithful readers with some info that should enrich their gambling lives. The result: the Ferringo 15.
The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings, a ladder or hierarchy based on which teams are the most profitable on the field. I'm not trying to give you some other convoluted, random, speculative power rankings based on my own biases. So instead of Ohio State moving up or down the polls on the basis of how badly they blew out Northwestern the previous Saturday I'm going to rank each team based on past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread.
Below I've listed teams that have been and hopefully will continue to be the most profitable teams for bettors this season. It's still early in the season so there will likely be a lot of fluctuation from week to week. But after we've had some time to get the lay of the land these rankings will be buttressed by solid, visceral performance.
Last week was a banner one for the Ferringo 15, as schools playing in lined games went an outstanding 8-3 against the number. I think it's going to be tough for some clubs to maintain their perch on this list because of their big wins (Oregon and Oklahoma come to mind) but until then they are still among the most profitable teams we'll see this season. So without further ado, here is our Week 3 version of the Ferringo 15:
1) South Florida (1-0 Against the Spread) - The upsets are not going to stop at Auburn for the Bulls. They were Everyone's Sleeper at the start of the season and they've proven why. Now they get a week underground to prep for North Carolina and if they're anything less than a double-digit favorite I'll be all over them.
2) Purdue (1-0 ATS) - Curtis Painter is running point for Purdue and has led an offense averaging 52 points per game this season. The Boilers are three-touchdown favorites this week, and if they can cover that number heading into Big 10 play I'll be very impressed.
3) Memphis (1-0) - Unfortunately, the Tigers play a non-lined game against Jacksonville State this weekend. As long as they don't do anything stupid - like orchestrate a 40-point blowout - then we could still have some very solid dog value going into a key home opener with Central Florida.
4) Iowa (2-0) - Perhaps more than any other game, I'm most irritated that I didn't go big on the Hawkeyes over the Orange last weekend. Iowa's front four may be the best in the conference and Albert Young is a stud. However, beware this weekend's rivalry game with Iowa State. The following Saturday they are at Wisconsin in a huge Big Ten matchup.
5) South Carolina (1-1) - I knew that The Ol' Ball Coach would reward me for leaving the Gamecocks in the Ferringo 15 despite an opening ATS loss. Blake Mitchell can be shaky at times, but we could get another golden opportunity to cash in on SC if they're two-touchdown dogs in the Bayou on Sept. 22.
6) Anyone Playing Notre Dame (2-0) - Mike Hart guaranteed victory. But can Michigan cover? It's going to be extremely difficult behind a freshman quarterback, even if they are playing at home yet again. Michigan hosts Penn State the following week and it will be tough not to look ahead now that they know that a Big 10 title is the only thing that could vindicate this team.
7) Oklahoma (2-0) - Wow. That's all I can say about their manhandling of Miami. Look, I know the Hurricanes are a joke. They have been for years. But the way in which the Sooners dismantled Miami sent a strong message that this team is not messing around. I think if they can beat Miami by 38 they can top most inflated numbers. Bob Stoops hasn't exactly been one to call of the dogs in his career.
8) Washington (2-0) - Jack Locker has proven himself to be more than legit, and now the Huskies are back on the map. We should have sniffed out their big win against Boise State (which was ripe to be faded) but I wanted to see one more performance before I jumped on the bandwagon. I'm riding shotgun now, and the fact that they are still home dogs against Ohio State says one thing to me - Value.
9) UCLA (2-0) - It was a tight one, but the Bruins managed to cover last weekend against a scrappy BYU team after blowing a 20-3 lead. The Bruins' pass defense is very bothersome - especially because it means they may let teams in the back door when they're shackled with big spreads.
10) Georgia Tech (2-0) - Tech had to drop this week because, judging by their line against Boston College, they appear to be getting overrated. I think that this is not going to be the last time these two run into one another, if you know what I mean.
11) Boston College (2-0) - The Eagles have come right out of the gate firing, taking down the defending conference champions and then earning an ATS win in a grudge match against their former coach. But the road doesn't get any easier, and the Eagles are facing a team that they are 1-4 SU against recently.
12) Oregon (2-0) - I said back in July that they were going to demolish the Wolverines - and they did just that. But now it's time to see if success will go to their heads as the expectations rise or if they will raise their level of play to championship caliber. They have a pair of winnable games coming up before a showdown with Cal. I would almost like to see the Ducks stumble so we can collect against the Bears.
13) New Mexico State (0-1) - Close, but no cigar for our former No. 1. The Aggies are 5-15 as a favorite, which they have been posted as this week, but I'm leaving them in the 15 for the same reason I left South Carolina in last week: potential. I think NMSU can be a fly in the ointment in the conference and they graded out too high in the preseason for me to dump them now.
14) Missouri (2-0) - Chase Daniels is my homeboy, and we are now 2-0 backing him with free plays this season. Good times. Is the defense good enough to win the Big 12 Title? Hell no. But with three straight home games on the horizon I think we can ride the Tigers offense a little longer.
15) UNLV (2-0) - I was there in person for their near miss against Wisconsin this weekend and I was very impressed with their team speed. This isn't a good team by any stretch of the imagination, and I think they're primed for a big-time fall this weekend against Hawaii, but the Rebels have gotten it done to this point so we'll show some love.
Others receiving votes: TCU (1-1), Central Florida (1-0), Cincinnati (1-0), Michigan State (1-1), UTEP (2-0), Miami, OH (2-0), Arizona State (2-0), LSU (2-0), Kansas State (1-1), Illinois (0-1)
Dropped out: Hawaii (0-1)
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