Zenyatta and the Other Stars at Breeders' Cup
by Trevor Whenham - 10/30/2009


The Breeders' Cup is about two things -  excitement and puzzles. On both fronts Zenyatta tops the list. She's the  biggest star at the Breeders' Cup this year, and it's not even close. She's  also running against the boys for the first time in the second richest race in  the world. Figuring out how to deal with her isn't going to be easy. Here's a  look at her and two of the other biggest stars on the Breeders Cup Card.
  
  Zenyatta - You can't do any better than Zenyatta has done in her career  - she has entered the starting gate 13 times, and she has won every time. Last  year she won the Ladies' Classic with ease, and the plan appears to be for her  to take a step up to the Classic this year. It's almost certainly the last race  of her career, and a win by a mare in the Classic would be unprecedented and  almost unbelievable. There is good news and bad news when it comes to  determining her readiness for the challenge.
  
  On the plus side, the synthetic surface is the furthest thing from a problem -  12 of her 13 races have been on synthetics, including four at Santa Anita. She  also has a running style that suits the race well. She's a closer who likes to  sit off the pace before unleashing a ferocious charge for the lead in the  stretch. Last year, Classic winner Raven's Pass wasn't in the lead until the  final 1/16 mile of the race. Until then he just minded his time and let  everyone in front of him burn themselves out. Zenyatta can do just that, and we  know it can work very well for her. Her closing kick is so much better than  every other female horse in the country that it's certainly possible believe  that it will get the best of the boys as well.
  
  Now the bad news. The Classic is run at a mile and a quarter - fittingly known  as the classic distance. That's the same distance as the Kentucky Derby. It's  also further than Zenyatta has ever run. The majority of her races has been at  1 1/16 miles, with three coming at 1 1/8 miles. The jump in distance here is  big - especially for a horse who is trying to make the jump for the first time  so late in her career. She's also facing the boys for the first time, and you  can never tell how a horse will respond to that. In some cases it is fine, but  a filly or mare can be intimidated by the aggressive males and not run to the  best of her ability, or she can be distracted and fail to focus. As if that's  not confusing enough, there is also a question about her form. In her second to last outing, in August  at Del Mar, she won by the narrowest margin of her career, and she was lucky to  do so. There are those who believe that this is too much of a challenge for her  at this point in her career.
  
  I can understand either argument - deciding to back Zenyatta or look to beat  her. Either way, there is a real consideration here - because she is based in  California and she has such an impressive record she is almost certain to be  significantly overbet. She'll likely be the favorite - second favorite behind  Rip Van Winkle at worse - but she'll be at a lower price than she should be  because of all the public action. That's means that you'll have to be  especially confident in your decision because there won't be any value. On the  other hand, the more money she draws, the better the prices will be on the  other horses.
  
  Summer Bird - It hasn't been the best year for male racing in the U.S.,  but that shouldn't take away from what Summer Bird has done. He captured  national attention by winning the Belmont, and followed that up by finishing a  solid second to Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell. There's no shame in that. The  rest of the summer couldn't have gone better - he won the biggest three year  old race of the summer, the Travers, and followed that by wining the Jockey  Club Gold Cup against older horses. Given his heart, talent, and adaptable  running style he'd be a huge factor in this race - except for one thing. Summer  Bird has never run on a synthetic surface, and it's far from a certainty that  he will handle it well. Given how Curlin, last year's Jockey Club Gold Cup  winner, handled the Santa Anita track (very poorly) there is more than a little  reason to be concerned.
  
  Mine That Bird - I was at the Kentucky Derby this year. I will never forget seeing the little flash of lightning flying up  the rail as he went past us, or the stunned silence in the grandstand as  everyone tried to figure out what had just happened. Mine That Bird proved that  he didn't get nearly enough respect from bettors in that race. Though he has  mostly run okay since then, he hasn't managed to repeat that effort, or even to  win a race. His last race was a particular disaster - he was sixth in the  Goodwood at Santa Anita earlier in October beyond a couple of other likely  Classic entrants. The horse was terrible the previous time he was at Santa  Anita as well - he was dead last in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The  horse can run on synthetics - he was the Canadian juvenile champion while  running on the synthetic at Woodbine - but he hasn't shown the form or liking  for Santa Anita to consider him as a real contender. He'll draw more than his  share of sentimental money, though. Heck, I'm all but certain that he won't win  and yet I'll likely have a couple of bucks on him just in case - I already made  the mistake of counting him out once.
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