Free NFL Picks: Lions at Bills Betting Odds and Sunday Predictions
by Jason Sharpe - 11/12/2010
This has the looks of a very ugly football game as the Detroit Lions (2-6 and 7-1 ATS) go on the road to play the Buffalo Bills (0-8 and 3-4-1 ATS) this Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EST. These two teams come into this game having combined for just two wins so far in the 2010 season. The Bills enter this contest a three-point favorite with an ‘over/under’ total of 44 points, according to NFL point spreads.
Both teams come into this game trying to end two of the worst current losing streaks in the NFL. The Lions would love nothing more then to halt their 24-game road losing streak in this game while the Bills are hoping to get their first win of the year, and in the process stop their winless streak of eight straight games.
At just 2-6 on the year the Lions have somehow managed to outscore their eight opponents so far this season. They come into this game having covered five straight games and they have the best record against the spread in the NFL so far this season, failing to cover the number in only one of their games all year.
The Lions are a much improved football team this year even though they have had to play a majority of their season without their starting quarterback Matthew Stafford, who is currently hurt and will miss this game. In his place the Lions turn to one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL in Shaun Hill. Hill will be returning from a broken left forearm injury that knocked him out of action a month ago.
Whomever it is that has quarterbacked the Lions offense this season, they have done a very solid job. The Lions come into this game with the 18th-ranked offense overall in the NFL, which is way up from last year’s No. 26 ranking. The biggest improvement on the offense comes from the Lions passing attack, which is ranked eighth in the NFL this year after a 21st ranking in the league last season. The improved offensive play of the Lions has them scoring more than 25 points per game this year, which is up nine points above last year’s average of 16 points per contest.
Even on the defensive side of the football the Lions come in vastly improved from a year ago as they allowed 392 yards per game, which was the highest in all of the NFL last season. This year the Lions have improved to 26th in defense in the NFL, allowing 30 yards less per game on the season.
Though the Bills haven’t won a game so far this season, they continue to show a lot of fight each week. Buffalo has lost each of their last three games by three points each with two of those three losses coming in overtime. The Bills are just 2-6 as a home favorite the last eight times in this role and they have a record of just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home contests.
Much of the Bills problems have come on the defensive side of the football as they have fallen to 26th in the NFL this year in yards allowed per game; this comes after a 19th ranked defensive showing last season. Stopping the run has been the weakness of the Bills defense this year as they are allowing 178 yards per game on the ground, worst in the NFL and nearly five yards per carry on the season. The Bills defense has allowed 29.1 points per game this season, which is almost 10 points more per game then the Bills are scoring.
The offensive side of the football has been a little better for Buffalo with some small signs of improvements this year as Buffalo has averaged more than 22 points per game in their last four games, while out gaining two of their last three opponents overall. Though the Bills have switched quarterbacks, the quarterback play overall hasn’t been that bad for Buffalo this year, as they currently sit 21st in the NFL with an 80.6 team quarterback rating on the season.
These two teams aren’t nearly as poor as their overall records indicate. Getting points against a winless team this far into this season becomes an automatic play. Take the Lions here in this one as I look for Detroit to finally end their road losing streak with a 24-21 victory.
Jason Sharpe has been excellent for his expert football picks at Doc’s Sports, and he has shown a profit in 9 of 10 weeks for his NFL handicapping and college football picks and $100 players are up $8,500 on the season! He sees some weak NFL point spreads on the board this week and is very excited to extend his current run. Also this week he will have a 6-Unit NFL Game of the Month and he is hitting 80% on his top plays this season. Call us toll-free at 1-866-238-6696 to find out about a free one-week football package from Sharpe or any Advisory Board handicapper of your choice (new clients only).
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