NFL Picks: Colts vs. Patriots Odds and Sunday Betting Predictions
by Robert Ferringo - 11/19/2010
So we meet again…
The annual Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning showdown takes place this Sunday as New England hosts Indianapolis at 4 p.m. on Sunday in Foxboro. This is another critical conference clash between these two rivals, and we should expect another classic from two of the best teams in the NFL.
As you would expect, the Patriots are currently tied with two other teams for the best record in football while the Colts are just one win off the pace. While everyone has spent most of the week gushing over Michael Vick, the two clear-cut best quarterbacks in the league have been sharpening their knives and readying their troops.
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This is the eighth straight year that these two former division rivals have met, and just about every one of those games has been a marquee moment on the NFL schedule. The last four meetings have been decided by four points or less and seven of the last 10 matchups have been determined by a touchdown or less.
While the illusion is that Brady somehow owns Manning, the truth is that the Colts are 5-1 straight up and 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings dating back to 2005. Granted, this series was just as one-sided in Brady’s favor prior to 2005 (and Brady’s rings still outnumber that of his counterpart). But that had more to do with New England’s significantly better defense and running game during those years than it did Brady outgunning Manning.
This year the Colts bring the No. 4 offense and the No. 18 defense in the league into this game. Indianapolis has struggled a bit on the road this season, losing two of its last three away games. But they are coming off a win over Cincinnati last week and they are a solid 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games.
New England’s statistical rankings (No. 17 offense and No. 29 defense) aren’t nearly as impressive as you would expect out of a team tied for the league lead in wins. But they dominated Pittsburgh last Sunday night, ringing up 39 points in a 13-point victory, and they have won six of seven outright. Also, despite catching a ton of public action the Pats are still 4-1-1 ATS in their last six overall.
Sunday is going to be cold (high of 41 degrees) but it will be clear and wind shouldn’t be a factor. The cold should be a small edge for the host Pats and the Colts are off surface while playing on grass this week. But all told, weather won’t be an issue in this one.
Colts at Patriots Betting Odds and Line Movement
New England is currently a 4.0-point favorite and the total is set at 50.0, according to the NFL odds. The spread is actually up from an open of 3.0 despite nearly 50-50 action on this contest. The total has been slowly coming down from an open of 50.5 and it is also available at 49.5.
Colts at Patriots Betting Trends
Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Underdog is 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
Patriots are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Patriots are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Colts are 9-1-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
Colts are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 road games.
Colts at Patriots NFL Picks and Predictions
I think that this is definitely a stay-away game. I mean, how do you bet against Brady? How do you bet against Manning? If one defense was clearly superior to the other then I could see that tipping the scales. But that’s not the case. Three of the last four regular season matchups have gone ‘under’ the total but, again, a bet on the ‘under’ would be like betting against Brady AND Manning.
If I had to make a play on this game I would have to lean on the host Patriots. New England’s defense is one of the worst in the NFL, statistically, but they get a big boost by playing at home in front of that obnoxious Massachusetts crowd.
Manning has gotten the better of Brady and Belichick over the last half-decade, but I think that the Pats are due in this rivalry. Indianapolis’ style is to lay back, keep things close, and then rely on Manning being better than the opposition in the fourth quarter. Brady is the only guy in the league that strategy may not work against. Patriots win 26-20.
Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional college football and NFL handicapper for Doc’s Sports. He has brought in over $15,000 in overall profit in all sports over the last three-plus months. You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.
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