College Football Picks: Mid-Major Game Day Predictions Week 12
by Dave Schwab - 11/15/2011
With just a few weeks to go in the college football regular season, teams such as LSU and Oklahoma State are trying stay on the path towards a National Championship, while the majority of the better teams in the mid-majors are simply trying secure a spot in a more prestigious bowl game.
It is these types of games where you can sometimes find tremendous value in the college football point spreads if you know where to look.
Last week we were ahead of the curve on out top mid-major plays with Houston and Florida International easily covering the spread. We have once again been hard at work in an effort to uncover a few solid college football picks in this week’s ‘under-the-radar’ matchups.
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Saturday, Nov. 19
Army Black Nights vs. Temple Owls (-13.5)
Army comes into the game on a bit of a rough patch with four losses in its last five games. It is currently 3-7 straight-up on the year and 5-5 against the spread. While the Black Nights have had trouble winning games, they can still move the ball on the ground behind the No.1-ranked rushing offense in the nation.
Temple still has an outside shot at winning the Conference-USA East Division title, but more than likely it is playing for an eight-win season and a trip to a mid-level bowl game. The Owls are also very apt at running the ball and have a shutdown defense that is giving-up just 13.6 points a game.
The Black Nights are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, while the Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last five nonconference games. The favorite in this series is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, including a 42-35 Temple victory last season as a six-point road favorite.
Prediction: Temple 27, Army 10
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Nevada Wolf Pack (-7.5)
Louisiana Tech has strung together a five-game winning streak that has it knocking of the door of a WAC title with Nevada and New Mexico State as the only teams standing in the way. The Bulldogs have run their record to 6-4 SU overall and have covered the spread in their last five games to go 8-2 ATS on the year.
Nevada has navigated its way through the WAC with a 4-0 SU record and is 6-3 SU overall and 4-5 ATS. It too is riding a five-game winning streak and can pretty much lock-up the conference title with a win on Saturday. The Wolf Pack comes into this game with a seventh-best rushing attack in the country, averaging 262 yards a game.
Head-to-head in this series, the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in the last six games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Nevada. Look for the Wolf Pack’s offense to wear Louisiana Tech down in the fourth quarter to pull away at the end.
Prediction: Nevada 31, Louisiana Tech 21
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Hawaii Warriors (-5.5)
Staying in the WAC, Fresno State has lost three straight to fall to 3-7 SU (4-6 ATS) on the year. It has failed to cover as a favorite in its last two games, but has covered as an underdog in three of five games this year. The Bulldogs still have a very potent passing game and an offense that can put points on the board.
Hawaii has dropped two straight games to fall to 5-5 SU overall. It has failed to cover in four of its last five games to fall to 4-6 ATS. It is just 2-5 ATS this season as a favorite. The Warriors are another team that loves to put the ball in the air, which has resulted in an average of 33.3 points a game.
The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 3.5 or more points, while the Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a favorite. The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. This trip to Hawaii is the Bulldogs’ bowl game this season and they play inspired enough to cover with the 5.5 points.
Prediction: Hawaii 38, Fresno State 35
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