College Football Picks: Mid-Major Game Day Predictions Week 14
by Dave Schwab - 11/30/2011
This is the final week of games in college football before this year's bowl season gets under way in mid-December. It is also one more opportunity to capitalize on the tremendous value that can be found in the college football point spreads if you know where to look.
This is especially true when it comes to games between teams in the mid-majors. Some of these ‘under-the-radar’ matchups literally jump off the page when properly handicapped.
Last week, we cashed-in on all three of our free college football picks with Eastern Michigan, Houston, and Utah State all covering against the spread. Before we start gearing-up for the upcoming bowl season, we uncovered a few more solid picks for this week's final round of games.
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Saturday, December 3
No. 24 Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs. No.6 Houston Cougars (-12.5)
Southern Miss earned a spot in the Conference-USA title game by winning the East Division with a straight-up record of 6-2 in conference play. The Golden Eagles finished 10-2 SU overall and were 7-4-1 against the spread. The only real black mark on their record was a 34-31 loss to UAB two weeks ago as 23.5-point road favorites.
Houston has rolled into this championship game behind a perfect mark of 12-0 SU on the year. It has been almost as good ATS at 10-2. The Cougars’ offense is ranked first in the nation in scoring with an average 52.7 points a game and the closest margin of victory in their last seven games has been 30 points.
The Golden Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Houston and the home team in this series is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
Prediction: Houston 48, Southern Miss 31
Troy Trojans vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (-17.5)
Troy comes into this game with just one win in its last seven games and is 3-8 overall both SU and ATS. While the Trojans do have a decent passing attack with an average of 289.5 yards per game, it has not translated to points as they are ranked 87th in the nation in scoring.
Arkansas State has already wrapped up this year’s Sun Belt title at 7-0 SU in conference play and it is 9-2 overall both SU and ATS. The Red Wolves are averaging 32.5 points a game, while its defense is giving-up just 19.8 points a game.
The Trojans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on the road and 2-5 ATS in their last seven conference games. The Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Sun Belt.
Prediction: Arkansas State 42, Troy 13
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Diego State Aztecs (-8)
Fresno State dropped four of its last five games to take itself out of bowl contention, so it is playing for pride in this one. The Bulldogs are 4-8 SU (5-7 ATS) overall and 3-4 SU in the Western Athletic Conference.
San Diego State is out of the running for the Mountain West title, but at 7-4 SU (5-6 ATS) it can possibly work itself into a more lucrative bowl game if it can get to eight wins. As an added bonus, the Aztecs can fire the first shot in what may become an in-state rivalry given that the Bulldogs will start play in the MWC next season.
The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in the last five games against the MWC and 1-4 ATS in their last five nonconference games. The Aztecs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games outside the conference and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games against the WAC.
Prediction: San Diego State 31, Fresno State 21
Vegas Sports Informer collected again with his College Football Game of the Year behind Stanford last weekend and he is expecting to nail another big play this weekend for his college football picks. Check out his Insider’s Page here and get a week of his college and NFL picks this weekend for only $99.
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