MLB Odds and Predictions: Next Manager to be Fired
by Alan Matthews - 6/14/2011
If you had Oakland’s Bob Geren as the first Major League Baseball manager to be fired in the 2011 season, then you are probably counting your money as we speak. That the A’s dumped a manager during the season is highly rare: When GM Billy Beane canned his good friend Geren last Thursday after four-plus seasons, it was the first time in 25 years the franchise had fired a manager during a season. Former Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners skipper Bob Melvin will manage the team for the rest of the season.
WagerWeb has posted a new prop on which manager is the next to follow Geren to the unemployment line. The favorite is the Cubs’ Mike Quade at +400. The Cubbies have been nothing short of an abject disaster as they entered play on Monday at 25-39 and 12 games out of first place in the National League Central. The Cubs stunk last year, too, but played very well under Quade once he took over for the retired Lou Piniella late in the season. That apparently was enough for GM Jim Hendry to give him the full-time job over former Cubs legend Ryne Sandberg, who was so ticked he didn’t get the gig after managing for years in the Cubs’ minor-league system (and well) that he left the franchise. Frankly it would do the Cubs little good to fire Quade now because this club looks like it probably won’t contend again for at least a few seasons. But if the Cubs get pummeled on their current homestand, when they face the Brewers and Yankees before heading crosstown to face the White Sox, it’s not impossible that Quade is dumped.
The next favorite is Kansas City’s Ned Yost at +450. The Royals were one of the early surprises in baseball, but have since taken their usual spot near the bottom of the AL Central as they are 29-37 through Monday. Still, they actually aren’t out of the race in the division. Frankly, if Yost was going to be fired it should have been after he allowed pitcher Vin Mazzaro to give up an incredible 14 runs in just 2 1/3 innings back on May 16. Why Yost allowed his young pitcher to take that sort of abuse is rather curious. He was the first pitcher since 1900 to allow 14-plus runs in less than three innings. The Royals aren’t really built to start winning until 2012 as they work in all of their stellar young prospects. I could see Yost getting replaced at the end of the season, but it wouldn’t make a ton of sense during this season.
Here are the rest of the betting options on WagerWeb:
Terry Collins, Mets (+600): Collins was recently criticized by former Mets hitting instructor Howard Johnson. But it’s not really fair to dump Collins until at least Johan Santana can make his season debut and perhaps the Mets can determine if they contend for a wild-card spot. Plus the Mets are in so much financial trouble they probably wouldn’t want to have to buy out Collins and then pay another manager.
John Farrell, Blue Jays (+550): The Jays were in the mix in the AL East there for a while, but have since started to slide. Still, they won’t can Farrell, who is in his first season after making a good reputation as Boston’s pitching coach.
Kirk Gibson, Diamondbacks (+550): The Snakes have been one of the pleasant surprises in MLB this season. Gibson’s job is safe.
Fredi Gonzalez, Braves (+600): The Braves couldn’t wait to hire Gonzalez to replace the retired Bobby Cox. Gonzalez’s job is totally safe with Atlanta in contention in the NL East.
Clint Hurdle, Pirates (+475): The Pirates actually just reached .500 a few games ago for the first time this late in the season in forever. Hurdle’s not going anywhere.
Don Mattingly, Dodgers (+550): Donnie Baseball certainly will get at least the rest of the season to show he can be a big-league manager. Plus, the Dodgers have plenty of other problems to deal with first.
Edwin Rodriguez, Marlins (+600): I think this is the best betting choice. The Fish have made no secret they would like Miami native Ozzie Guillen at some point – preferably as they move into their new stadium next year. Plus the Marlins are plummeting, having lost 10 of 11 entering this week. Rodriguez doesn’t have a contract past this year, either. Put your money here.
Ron Roenicke, Brewers (+550): The Brew Crew entered this week leading the NL Central, so Roenicke is plenty safe.
Buck Showalter, Orioles (+550): He hasn’t even been on the job a full season yet so Showalter won’t be going anywhere as the team has shown flashes of being competitive soon.
Eric Wedge, Mariners (+600): The M’s have been a pleasant surprise and are contending in the mediocre AL West, so Wedge’s job is safe.
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