MLB Picks: Orioles vs. Yankees Series Odds and Predictions
by Darin Zank - 4/12/2011
Buck Showalter came back to the AL East with a bit of a chip on his shoulder, and so far it's worked to the benefit of his Baltimore Orioles. A team that's won fewer than 70 games four seasons in a row looks like it has found new life under the micro-managing Showalter, at least for the time being. This week the O's look to continue their good start to this season when they pay a visit on one of Buck's old outfits, the New York Yankees, for a three-game series in the Bronx starting Tuesday night.
Baltimore is off to a 6-3 start, and leads the AL East (through Sunday) by a game over both Toronto and New York. The O's opened by sweeping three games at Tampa, then took two of three games at home from Detroit as the pitching staff allowed just one run in each of their first four games. Baltimore then took the opener of a weekend series vs. Texas, but they lost Saturday and Sunday by a combined score of 16-1, managing just 10 hits in the two games combined.
Through its first nine games Baltimore is hitting just .216 as a team, but the staff ERA is 3.33., which is probably why six of the O's first nine games have played ‘under’ the posted totals.
New York is 5-4 is this season, having taken two of three from Detroit, two of three from Minnesota, but dropping two of three in Boston. The Yanks are averaging better than five and a half runs per game, even after getting shut out Sunday night, and lead the majors with 18 homers. Pinstripes pitching, however, ranks 25th in ERA and 26th in WHIP (walks + hits/innings pitched). This is probably why six of New York's first nine games have played ‘over’ the totals.
Chris Tillman is slated to start Tuesday night for the O's against AJ Burnett for the Yanks (7:05 p.m. EST). Then lefty Brad Bergesen goes for Baltimore Wednesday vs. Phil Hughes for New York (7:05 p.m. EST). And Jake Arrieta hits the hill Thursday for the Birds against Ivan Nova for the Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST).
Tillman has started twice this year, shutting out Tampa for six innings and then allowing four earned runs on six hits and two walks in less than five innings vs. Detroit. Last year Tillman started twice vs. the Yankees, allowing five ER on 20 baserunners (hits + walks) in 9 2/3 innings pitched. The Orioles managed to split those two games.
Burnett is 2-0 this season, picking up wins while allowing three ER in five IP vs. Detroit and two ER in six IP vs. Minnesota. Last year Burnett started five times vs. Baltimore, limiting the Orioles to 11 ER on 29 hits in 36 innings of work, walking nine and striking out 27. New York won three of those games, and all five played ‘under’ their totals.
Bergesen only lasted 3 2/3 innings in his first start of this season last week vs. the Tigers, allowing two ER on seven base runners of a 7-3 Orioles loss. Last year Bergesen started twice vs. New York, giving one good outing and one bad. Together, he gave up seven ER on 15 base runners in 8 2/3 IP, as Baltimore lost both those games.
Hughes has been terrible his first two starts of this season, giving up 11 ER on 16 base runners in just six innings vs. Detroit and Boston. The Yanks lost both those games, and they both went ‘over’ the totals. Last year Hughes had success against Baltimore, though, holding the O's to five ER on 22 base runners in 18 2/3 innings covering three starts. New York won two of those games.
Arrieta pitched well in his first outing this season, holding Detroit to one ER in six innings, but then he got clipped for eight ER in just 3 1/3 innings in a loss to Texas Saturday. Last year, as a rookie, Arrieta started and won twice vs. the Yanks, allowing five ER on 12 hits in 12 1/3 innings. And both those games played ‘under’.
Nova got a win over Minnesota in his first start this season, allowing three ER in six innings, then took a no-decision vs. Boston Saturday, allowing four ER in 4 1/3 innings. Last year Nova started once vs. Baltimore, giving up two ER in six innings of a 3-2 Yankees victory.
This is the first meeting this season between these division rivals. Last year, New York took the season series from Baltimore 13-5. And the totals in this series leaned somewhat surprisingly toward the ‘unders’ by an 11-5-2 margin, as Yanks-O's games averaged 8.3 total runs.
On the injury front New York 3B Alex Rodriguez missed Sunday night's loss in Boston with the flu, but he's expected to be ready to play Tuesday night.
Orioles vs. Yankees betting odds and trends
Superbook and Sportsbook.com are listing the Yankees as -260 favorites to win this series, with the Orioles getting +200. Superbook is also offering New York at +160 to win the AL East this season, Baltimore at +1,200.
Baltimore is 40-26 since hiring Showalter as manager last July.
The totals went 2-6-1 in O's-Yanks games played at Yankee Stadium last year, which averaged just 7.2 RPG.
New York has won 37 of the last 52 games vs. Baltimore
MLB Picks: Orioles vs. Yankees Betting Predictions
Showalter has the Orioles playing some pretty good ball since taking over, and you know he'd love nothing better than to beat the Yankees a couple of times this week. But Burnett and Hughes have good recent numbers vs. Baltimore, and that's hard to overlook. So while we're not big on giving a price like -260, the Yankees are the pick here to win this series.
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