Super Bowl Prop Betting: Take Advantage of Early Lines
by Trevor Whenham - 1/21/2011
In a few days the Conference Championship games will be in the books, the Super Bowl teams will be determined, and there will be a ridiculous number of Super Bowl prop bets to choose from. We’ll deal with those once they arrive. Before that, though, there are a number of different Super Bowl futures odds that are available to be bet now.
These are interesting to look at -- just as Super Bowl futures are before the season starts and throughout it. If you are a little creative with these bets they can be more than interesting, though -- they can offer some attractive value. Here are a few ways you could potentially use these futures to grow your bankroll (NFL odds and lines are from BetUS):
Exact Super Bowl result - This is the future bet that allows you to pick which team will win the Super Bowl, and who they will beat. Another way to look at this bet, then, is that it’s really a three-team parlay -- you are betting on the outcome of the two Conference Championship games and the Super Bowl.
It makes sense, then, to combine the moneylines for the two games this weekend with an estimated moneyline if the two teams you pick were to make the Super Bowl to see what the potential payoff would be. A lot of times the parlay would pay significantly better than these futures bets, but sometimes the futures bet would actually offer value. For example, right now the Jets and the Bears are both +160 on the moneyline in the Conference Championships. If those two teams were to play in the Super Bowl, the Jets would likely be small favorites. Right now the exact matchup of the Jets over the Bears in the Super Bowl pays +1000. If the moneyline for the Jets in the Super Bowl is set at -160 or lower (i.e. -165, -170 and so on) then that +1000 price would be higher than the parlay would pay off at, so making this bet would represent value.
Making the Most of Your Super Bowl MVP Predictions - If you have a strong feeling about which team is going to win the Super Bowl, but they aren’t likely to pay much in the Super Bowl -- if you like the Packers, for example -- then betting on the MVP could be a way to get more value for your opinion.
You’ll certainly get better prices now on most players than you will after the Conference Championships are played because now there are four teams worth of elite players to choose from instead of just two. If you like the Packers, for example, then the +150 on Aaron Rodgers might not sound great, but it’s a lot better than it will be if he has a big day on Sunday. Greg Jennings will be much lower than +1200 if the Packers beat the Bears, too.
Early Super Bowl line - This may be where the biggest value is to be had. Right now the AFC is at -120 to win the Super Bowl, and the NFC is at -110. If the Packers make the Super Bowl then their price is going to be a lot worse than -110, so Packers fans should look at this closely. The Jets and the Steelers would both be worse than -120 against the Bears as well.
Playoff progress - This is a way for you to bet when each of the teams is going to get knocked out of the playoffs -- the Steelers will be the Super Bowl runner up, for example. There are a few ways you could use these.
One that strikes me as interesting is that you could look at it as a parlay in which you were betting on a team in the Conference Championship and then betting against them in the Super Bowl. If you think that the Steelers will win this weekend but lose to the Packers in the Super Bowl then you could capitalize on that by parlaying the Steelers in this round with the Packers in the next. If you figure out the likely payoff of that, though, you’ll find that you are likely to get a better price betting on the Steelers to be the Super Bowl runner up at +175.
Super Bowl Futures - Plain old Super Bowl futures can be useful as a de facto parlay as well. For example, betting the Packers to win the Super Bowl is just a parlay of them in their next two games. They are at -190 in the Conference Championship, so if they are favorites in the Super Bowl of -125 or more, then betting the futures will lead to a better payoff than the parlay would.
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