2021 Super Bowl MVP Odds and Predictions

by Chris Vasile - 2/5/2021

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes

We are getting closer to Super Bowl LV, and the hype surrounding it is at an all-time high. We just heard about “Mattress Mack” dropping a $3.4 million wager on the Buccaneers at +3.5 in an attempt to hedge against a promotion he’s running. Across both Las Vegas sportsbooks and online sportsbooks and apps, the handle on this Super Bowl is going to be enormous – likely the most bet Super Bowl of all time. What better way to head into the weekend than by talking about the MVP of the game? This wagering option is typically among the first lines to be released. And with the odds available, I believe the sportsbooks are covering their asses in a big way. You can talk all you want about handicapping the game itself, but the reality of the matter is that the Super Bowl MVP award is typically awarded to the most “popular” player on the winning team. With that said, let’s jump right into the odds.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City (-120): It should not be a surprise to anyone that Mahomes is the strong favorite in this category. Few would be able to argue effectively against the idea that he is the best and most exciting player in the league right now. This game is being dubbed the “Baby GOAT” vs “The GOAT”, so you can only imagine the lack of effort the headlines will take to create if the Chiefs win this game. That’s not to say he won’t deserve it. Typically, when his team wins, he is at the center of things, and he certainly has the reputation and respect that makes winning the award easier. The winning quarterback has won this award in eight of the last 10 years. Therefore, if you like the Chiefs, you probably don't hate this price. However, it should be noted that you’re getting around the same (or better) odds on the coin flip, and there are fewer options.

Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay (+187): If you like the Bucs to win Super Bowl LV, I don’t see how you don’t bet Tom Brady for Super Bowl MVP. The “GOAT” will be eyeing his seventh Super Bowl title and his fifth Super Bowl MVP accolade. He’s what makes the offense tick. And if the game is as high scoring as many are expecting, you know Brady is going to be slinging the rock 45+ times and he’ll have a couple of passing touchdowns to go along with some picture-perfect passes. The popularity isn’t as hard as people think. Brady has it on lock for Tampa. And unless we see Mike Evans dominate with 14 catches and a couple of scores or Fournette run for 150 yards, Brady is the likely candidate for MVP.

Travis Kelce/Tyreek Hill: (+1000): The next two players are for the outside of the box thinkers. Mahomes has to throw the ball to someone, and Hill and Kelce can explode for massive numbers in any game. Kelce has been essentially unguardable over his last 10 games. In that span, he’s hauled in 86 passes for 1,142 yards and nine touchdowns. He’s scored a touchdown in six straight weeks, including two against the Bills in the AFC title game. If the Bucs don’t game plan for him down the middle of the field, Kelce at 10/1 is excellent value. But what about Hill? He had 203 first-quarter yards against the Bucs in their Week 12 matchup. In his last two games, Hill has caught 17 passes for 282 yards but has failed to find the end zone. Hill is explosive enough to make things happen out of nothing, so its up to you to pick which one of these guys will be double-teamed by Tampa and then pick the other one.

Tyrann Mathieu, S, Kansas City (+2500): The last time a defensive player won the Super Bowl MVP award was in Super Bowl 50 when Von Miller captured it for the Denver Broncos. That was the second defensive MVP in three years, but there has been only eight defensive winners all time. Not exactly great odds, especially with a high-scoring game expected. Maybe a couple of interceptions would do the trick, but I’d need better than 25/1.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay (+2800): Mike Evans is an elite receiver. He’s big. He catches everything in sight, and he finds the end zone more often than not. The problem here is that he’s just not 100 percent healthy coming into this game. Yes, he’s caught the opening touchdown in the last two Tampa Bay games, but he’s also got four catches for 54 total yards in those two games. He’s a hit or miss proposition right now, and even a touchdown or two won’t be able to take the MVP trophy away from Brady if the Bucs win.

Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay (+2800): Leonard Fournette has gone from write-off in Jacksonville to write-in for the MVP award, and this may be the best value yet. Fournette has been solid so far these playoffs as he’s been given the starting role thanks to Ronald Jones being injured. He’s rushed for 211 yards in three games and two touchdowns. If the Bucs decide to run the ball against the 21st-ranked rushing defense, he could be in for a big day with multiple scores. If that happens, I don’t see how you ignore a running back that’s come back from running back purgatory to lead the team to a Super Bowl win.

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Start:	March 4, 2021 @ 6:10 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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2021 Super Bowl MVP Odds and Predictions

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