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2020 Super Bowl MVP Odds and Predictions


by Trevor Whenham - 1/21/2020

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes

One of the first Super Bowl prop bets to be posted every year is the Super Bowl MVP odds. It is also one of the more interesting props to think about. It's not because I particularly care about who wins the MVP - it's a sideshow. It's because in thinking about who will win you think a lot about how the game might turn out. In other words, making some Super Bowl MVP odds predictions is a good way to kickstart your handicapping of the game itself .

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Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City (+130): It should not be a surprise to anyone that Mahomes is the strong favorite in this category. Few would be able to argue effectively against the idea that he is the best and most exciting player in the league right now. He has been very strong in the two playoff performances - once he and his team have overcome slow starts in both games. When his team wins, he is usually at the center of things, and he certainly has the reputation and respect that makes winning the award easier. The winning quarterback has won this award in seven of the last 10 years, so if you like the Chiefs then you probably don't hate this price.

 

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco (+275): As the other potential winning quarterback, Jimmy G is a logical second choice. But he clearly isn't nearly as attractive as Mahomes - and not because of his team. As he showed in the dominating win over the Packers last week, he doesn't have to be a big part of a win - he threw only eight passes in the very lopsided win. He is willing to do whatever is needed to win, and the team is creative in how they use him. It feels dramatically more likely that he won't be MVP if the Niners win than would be the case for Mahomes if the Chiefs win. I don't see any value in this price at all - and I like the Niners in the game.

 

Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco (+550): This is a classic case of recency bias at work with this price. Mostert was outstanding against the Packers last time out, amassing 220 yards and four touchdowns. But it was just the second time in his career that he had exceeded 87 yards in a game and the first time since December 1 that he had had more than 70. The breakout game came almost from nowhere, and the chances that the Chiefs will let it happen again are all but zero. This is a ridiculous price.

 

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco (+1000): Kittle is probably Garoppolo's most comfortable target, and he has had three big games this season - over 100 yards in each case. But he has had little impact in the playoffs, amassing just 35 yards in the two games. And he has had only five touchdowns all season. He would need to post big numbers to win, and it feels far less likely than these odds suggest that he is going to do so. No value.

 

Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City (+1400): Hill had two touchdowns last time out, so he clearly has the chance to impact a game. He is tough to bet, though, for the same reasons that any pass catcher for the Chiefs is. First, the team so much depth at receiver - Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and tight end Travis Kelce all have game-breaking potential in this offense, and Mahomes doesn't seem to have a serious preference over who he hits. And because of how the Chiefs operate with the ball, if any of the receivers have a big day, so will Mahomes - and he is far more likely to win than any of the receivers. The price just isn't good enough.

 

Damien Williams, RB, Kansas City (+1800): Williams led the Chiefs in rushing this season but didn't eclipse 500 yards. He has scored three times in the playoffs but has averaged just 46 yards per game - and has been outrushed by Mahomes in both games. And the last running back to win this award was Terrell Davis in 1998. I just don't see how you could even consider betting this price. You'd have to put another zero on the end of the odds before I'd be even curious.

 

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City (+2200): I like Kelce more than any other Kansas City receiver - he led the team in yards by a wide margin in the regular season and was just a force against the Texans despite being banged up. I still have the same issues with him that I talked about with Hill, but this price is close enough to fair to be interesting.

 

Nick Bosa, DE, San Francisco (+2600): The first defensive player on the board is also the most interesting one. Bosa has been excellent in his rookie season and is getting some credit for where the team is at right now. He has been particularly good in the playoffs, with 10 tackles and three sacks in the two games. And if he is able to get to Mahomes with consistency and affect the course of this game, then he will certainly get the attention he needs to win. The last defensive end to win the award was Richard Dent in 1986, so he faces an uphill battle. But Von Miller won in 2016, and the difference between him as a linebacker and Bosa as an end isn't dramatic. I like this price.

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