Super Bowl MVP Odds and Predictions 2014
by Robert Ferringo - 1/23/2014
Betting on who will win the Super Bowl MVP is usually one of the most common wagers made on Super Sunday. This year a prop bet on the MVP should be some of the easiest money ever made gambling on the Super Bowl because everyone already knows how this game is going to end, right?
The 2014 Super Bowl will take place at 6:30 p.m. on Sunday, Feb. 2, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Denver is a slight 2.5-point favorite over Seattle, and the total is set at 47.5, with cold, inclement weather expected to make for a unique championship game experience.
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But neither time nor place really matters. Because Peyton Manning is going to vanquish the dark, evil forces of Seattle and claim victory for all that is Good and Just in the world. And after Manning is done torching the Seahawks defense for 400 yards and four touchdowns, he is going to take his broad shoulders and aw-shucks smile up to the podium, hoist the Lombardi Trophy high, and then proclaim that he is “going to Disney World” as is custom for the game’s MVP to do. It will be a feel-good moment to end all feel-good moments, full of so much goodness that Joe Buck will have a change of pants in the booth – just in case.
If you believe that the Broncos are destined to win the 2014 Super Bowl and that Manning will ride off into the sunset after one final, legacy-solidifying masterpiece then betting on him to win the Super Bowl MVP is a steal. Especially considering that his current 2014 Super Bowl MVP odds range from +110 (Sportsbook.ag) to -125 (Bovada).
That makes sense. The Super Bowl MVP, which is chosen by a combination of fan voting and the votes of 16 writers and broadcasters, has gone to a player on the winning team in 46 of the previous 47 championship games, and it has occurred every year since 1972.
Further, quarterbacks have been named the Super Bowl MVP 26 of 47 times. That includes Joe Flacco, who cashed at +250 last year as the game’s most valuable player. Flacco was the fourth straight quarterback selected MVP, and that was the 10th time in 15 years that the quarterback for the winning team has earned the title.
But what if you don’t think that the Broncos are going to win? Or what if you think that even if Denver does find a way to win the game it won’t be because Manning is able to solve the mighty Seattle defense? Well, now we’re talking value.
If you’re not willing to dump all of your money into Manning’s coronation then here is some Super Bowl MVP odds and predictions for the rest of the primary possibilities to shine in the 2014 Super Bowl:
Russell Wilson (+400) – This would a decent wager for, essentially, the same reasons one would bet on Manning. If you think that Seattle is going to win the game then you should want to have some money down on their quarterback to win the MVP. However, Wilson has only topped 300 yards twice this year and hasn’t thrown multiple touchdown passes in a game since Dec. 2. Even if the Seahawks win there’s a good chance that Wilson posts pedestrian numbers that won’t garner enough support for MVP.
Marshawn Lynch (+600) –I think that if anyone is going to unseat Manning it will be Lynch. He is clearly Seattle’s best offensive weapon. And if they win the game it will likely include at least 100 yards rushing and a touchdown from Lynch. He has name recognition and is well respected, and Lynch has been a beast in his playoff career. The Seattle tailback has rushed for 249 yards and three touchdowns this postseason and has topped 100 rushing yards in four of his six career playoff games. His hard-charging style also lends itself to the type of memorable plays that can sway voters.
Knowshon Moreno (+1200) –Moreno was a forgotten man for the Broncos earlier in the season. But he did break out for a 224-yard game against the Patriots. He also scored three touchdowns versus Jacksonville. That said, this is a sucker bet. There’s no guarantee that Moreno will be featured in this game. And running backs have only won the MVP seven times in 47 years. The last running back to take home the hardware: Terrell Davis in 1998. Moreno is no TD.
Demaryius Thomas (+1800) – I suppose you could throw Eric Decker (+2000) and Wes Welker (+2500) in here as well since all three of the Denver receivers have similar odds. It’s a stretch, but the reasoning behind any play on a Denver wideout would be the idea that one of them has a monster day. If Thomas has eight catches for 160 yards and two touchdowns he would certainly be in the running. However, any stats Thomas earns Manning earns as well, so it would really take something superhuman to surge past the Broncos quarterback (like Decker’s eight-catch, 174-yard, four-touchdown game against Denver on Dec. 1). It’s possible. It’s just not very probable. Thomas has the most catches, touchdowns and “big games” of any of the Denver receivers over the past two years, so his odds are the shortest.
Golden Tate (+4000) –This is a sleeper pick if you’re just looking to throw some change on a long shot. His numbers might not always suggest it, but Tate is clearly Seattle’s best receiver and Wilson’s go-to guy. He has been quiet during the postseason, but Tate always seems to be prominently involved in Seattle’s biggest games. If Denver stacks the box to slow down Lynch then that will open up opportunities in the passing game. If that happens then Tate will be the first guy that Wilson looks for.
Robert Ferringo is a lead writer for Doc’s Sport and a member of the Football Writer’s Association of America. Robert has been dominating the books lately with 12 of 14 winning football weeks and a profit in each round of the NFL playoffs. He has hit nearly 70 percent of his NFL plays over the last four months (73-36) and over the last eight football months, dating back to last year, he has earned over $14,000 in football profit. Take advantage of our free, no-strings-attached $60 credit to use toward a purchase of Robert’s football selections and get on this big game. CLICK HERE for $60 absolutely free!
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