Free Super Bowl Picks: ATS Side, and Total Over Under

by Ryan Cobbett - 1/31/2026

Free Super Bowl picks ATS side and total Drake Maye New England Patriots

With the calendar switching to February, now is the time to start placing bets on this year’s Super Bowl contest between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks were the top seed in the NFC but had a tougher path to the Super Bowl than the Patriots. The Seahawks dominated the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round, beating them 41-6. Then they snuck past another NFC West foe in the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Conference Championship, beating them 31-27. As for the Patriots, they did not get the benefit of a Bye, but they still managed to reach the biggest game of the year. They beat the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3 in the first round, battled past a banged-up Houston Texans squad 28-16, and then went to Denver and snuck past the Broncos in a snowy second half.

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The Seahawks finished with a 14-3 record, which was the best mark in the NFC. Their +191-point differential topped the NFL. After starting the season 3-2, the Seahawks got hot and never looked back. They finished the season with an 11-1 run, securing the top seed in the conference. Their three losses this year were one possession games: they lost to San Francisco by four, Tampa Bay by three, and the Rams by two. Seattle finished with a 4-2 record in NFC West play and went an impressive 8-1 away from home.

As for the Patriots, they also finished with a 14-3 record, which was tied for the best in the NFL with the Seahawks and the Broncos. They finished with a +170-point differential on the year which led the AFC and was the third best total in the league. In a similar fashion to Seattle, New England limped out of the gates. They started the season 1-2 but finished on a 13-1 run. Their three losses were also all by one possession: they lost to Las Vegas by seven, Pittsburgh by seven, and Buffalo by four. They went 8-0 on the road this season, and they won their lone road playoff game against Denver.

Super Bowl LX Betting Odds

Point Spread

Seattle Seahawks: -4.5

New England Patriots: +4.5

The Seahawks opened as 3.5-point favorites, but the spread has now moved to 4.5 points, in favor of Seattle, as we are eight days away from kickoff. With just over a week away from the big game, Seattle has -210 odds to win their second Super Bowl, while the Patriots come in as the underdogs with +190 odds to win their seventh Super Bowl.

Seattle is one of four teams to finish with a 12-5 record ATS this season. The Seahawks have continued their dominant ways ATS in the postseason, covering in both games on their way to the Super Bowl. Sam Darnold is 47-44-2 ATS in his career as a starter, including the postseason. He is 23-19-1 (53.5%) ATS as the favorite. Mike MacDonald has covered 20 of his 36 games as the Seattle head coach and has covered nearly 64% of the games where Seattle has been the betting favorite.

New England is another one of those four teams to close the regular season with a 12-5 record ATS. They have gone 2-1 ATS in the postseason, covering in the first two games of the playoffs, but they failed to cover against Denver in the snow. In his young career, Drake Maye has a 20-12 record ATS, and he has covered 10 of his 18 games as the underdog. In his career, Mike Vrabel has covered 53.4% of his games as head coach, and he has a 35-6-2 record ATS as the underdog.

One key betting note ATS, Seattle and New England went a combined 15-2 ATS away from home last season.

The Seahawks offense averaged 28.4 PPG this season, ranking third in the NFL. They averaged over 350 YPG, with a solid balance of the pass and run game. Darnold ranked fifth in the NFL in passing yards, finishing the year with 4,048 passing yards. He was prone to interceptions, throwing 14 of them in the 17-game regular season. Darnold also fumbled the ball three times. Kenneth Walker III led the team with 1,027 rushing yards but will assume the bulk of the responsibility in the Super Bowl after splitting the carries with Zach Charbonnet, who suffered a season-ending injury during the playoffs. Not surprisingly, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was by far the favorite target of Darnold. He finished with 1,793 receiving yards this season, leading the league, while finishing with 10 touchdowns.

The Patriots offense averaged 28.8 PPG which ranked second in the league, just ahead of the Seahawks. They averaged 379.4 YPG, with a balanced attack. Maye, an MVP finalist, finished fourth in the league in passing with 4,394 yards. He finished with 31 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. He was the only quarterback to finish the regular season with a CMP% above 70% (72%). The run game tandem of TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson totaled over 1,500 yards and the two combined for 16 rushing touchdowns. The receiving game also presents a wide variety of options, but Stefon Diggs has been Maye’s clear favorite throughout the season. Diggs finished the regular season with 1,013 receiving yards, while tight end Hunter Henry and receiver Kayshon Boutte have been redzone favorites and have combined for 13 receiving touchdowns.

On defense, both teams have completely shutdown the opposition. Seattle led the league in scoring defense, allowing just 17.2 PPG with New England allowing 18.8 PPG (4th in the league). Seattle was one of just five teams to allow less than 100 rushing yards per game this season, and both defenses held opposing quarterbacks to less than 200 yards passing per game. One significant difference between these two squads is Seattle’s turnover issues. They finished with a -3-turnover differential on the season, and their 28 giveaways are the second worst total in the NFL. While their defense has been stout and creates turnovers, New England turned the ball over less than one time per game during the regular season.

These teams are close in just about every significant statistical category. We have two quarterbacks and coaches who are making their Super Bowl debuts. Both teams have consistently covered throughout the season, and the defenses have completely dominated their opponents. You can point to New England’s easier path to the Super Bowl, but regardless of any ease, they have held their playoff opponents to just 8.7 PPG. Maye is the better playmaker, and the Patriot’s run game is a bit more reliable due to the injury to Charbonnet. It also is worth noting the offensive line capabilities of Seattle, while not near the bottom like last year, their offensive line will have their hands full with the Patriots defensive front. If New England can shut down the run and make Darnold uncomfortable, then New England will take the trophy.

My Pick: New England +4.5, +190

Super Bowl LIX Betting Odds

Point Total

Over 45.5: -112

Under 45.5: -108

The point total currently sits at 45.5, after opening at 46.5. While we should get some good weather out at Levi Stadium, I don’t expect this one to be high scoring at all. During the regular season, the Patriots and Seahawks combined to hit the over in 20 out of the 34 games. Seattle has hit the over in both of their playoff games and have averaged 36 PPG. However, New England has yet to allow a team to reach the 17-point mark in the playoffs. While New England does get the slight edge in the trenches, both offensively and defensively, they will not score four touchdowns on this Seattle defense. Expect a low scoring game, with both teams trying to establish long drives and control the clock. Take the under.

My Pick: Under 45.5, -108

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Start:	January 31, 2026 @ 10:00 PM
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