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2026 First Touchdown Scored Super Bowl Props Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/2/2026

Super Bowl first touchdown scored props odds and predictions Jaxon Smith-Njigba Seattle Seahawks

Super Bowl LX is just six days away, and now is the time to start building up our bet slips. This year’s matchup between Seattle and New England is sure to be a tough defensive showing, but we have to have points to have a winner. There has been a lot of discussion around each team’s defensive line, and how the game will hold up in the trenches. Sometimes talking about defense gets tiring, so let’s jump into some offense talk. Someone will score a touchdown, let’s look at the numbers to see which player will be the first to do so.

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First Touchdown Numbers

The Seattle Seahawks are looking to record just their second ever Super Bowl win, and they are looking to do so in their rival’s stadium. Seattle went 14-3 during the regular season, with their three losses coming by a combined nine points. Including the postseason, the Seahawks are currently riding a nine-game winning streak, and they have not lost since November 16th. Seattle scored first in 10 of their 17 regular season games, but they recorded the first touchdown in 12 of them. They have also scored the first touchdown in both of their playoff games, one being a kick return touchdown and the other being a Kenneth Walker rushing touchdown. In all, Seattle has scored the first touchdown in 14 out of 19 games this season (73.6%). Of those 14 first touchdowns, one came from the defense (7.1%), two came from special teams (14.3%), five came from the run (35.7%), and six were passing touchdowns (42.9%). Out of the five rushing touchdowns, four of them were by Zach Charbonnet who is out for the season. The other one came from Kenneth Walker in Seattle’s last game. As for the six passing touchdowns, three of them were to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, two from Tory Horton (also out for this game), and one from AJ Barner.

As for the Patriots, they also recorded a 14-3 record during the regular season. Their three losses came by a combined 18 points, and they are currently riding a six-game winning streak into the Super Bowl. If they win, this will be their seventh Super Bowl victory, further increasing their all-time lead. New England scored first in just eight of their 17 regular season games, while scoring the first touchdown in just seven of them. In their three playoff games, New England has recorded the first touchdown in two games. In total, New England scored the first touchdown in nine of their 20 total games this season (45%). Of those nine touchdowns, one of those came from special teams (11.1%), two were rushing touchdowns (22.2%), and six of them were passing touchdowns (66.7%). Drake Maye and TreVeyon Henderson each recorded one of those rushing touchdowns. Out of the six passing touchdowns: DeMario Douglas recorded three of them, while Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, and Mack Hollins each snagged one.

Statistics would back Seattle being the first team to record a touchdown in this one. They were the first team to record a touchdown in 73.6% of their games, compared to New England’s 45%. Now it’s time to dive into odds for this Super Bowl’s first touchdown scorer.

Seattle Seahawks Players:

Kenneth Walker III +370

Walker has the best odds of all players in this Super Bowl, coming in at +370 to be the game’s first touchdown scorer. He has totaled nine touchdowns this year, all of them rushing. While he did receive the bulk of the load in the regular season, his backfield mate in Charbonnet is out for this game, leaving Walker as the only proven option. It is worth noting that he has only recorded 17.3% of the touchdowns for Seattle between the regular season and postseason, and the odds of the first touchdown being a rushing one for Seattle was just 35.7%.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba +550

Smith-Njigba enters the game with the most total touchdowns of any skill position player of either team. At +550, he has great value, especially when you consider he has been the game’s first touchdown scorer three times. His 12 total touchdowns account for 23.1% of all Seattle touchdowns. In the postseason, he has accounted for 32% of Sam Darnold’s targets after being heavily relied on during the regular season. It also helps that the passing touchdown has been the most frequent type of first touchdown scored for Seattle this season.

AJ Barner +1200

At +1200, Barner is worth a flier if you like the value. He recorded the first touchdown once this season, but he has seen his production dip significantly in the playoffs. Barner finished with seven (one rushing) regular season touchdowns, which was the second most on the team, while also finishing second in receptions (52). However, in the playoffs he has just two catches for 13 yards.

Cooper Kupp +1300

Cooper Kupp also provides tremendous value at +1300. He has eight touchdowns in 11 playoff games in his career, and he has been the second most targeted receiver for the Seahawks this postseason. He has nine receptions for 96 yards and one touchdown in the playoffs, but he did only manage two regular season touchdowns.

New England Patriots Players:

Rhamondre Stevenson +800

If we find ourselves seeing the Patriots score first, the odds are pointing us to Rhamondre Stevenson. While he did not record the first touchdown in any of the Patriots 20 games leading up to this point, he has been the go-to option out of the backfield in the playoffs. He has received 51.5% of the carries this postseason, and he has the second most receiving yards for New England (86). Despite the bigger workload, he has yet to record a touchdown during the playoffs after recording nine during the regular season.

Stefon Diggs +1400

Stefon Diggs is an interesting wild card to follow here. He has yet to record the first touchdown of a game this season, but he has been Maye’s favorite target this year. Diggs was targeted 21.2% of the time during the regular season and has been targeted 23.3% of the time in the playoffs. However, he does have just five touchdowns between the regular season and the playoffs.

Hunter Henry +1600

Henry has already tallied the first touchdown score of the game this season and has tremendous value if you think he can do it again. He was Maye’s second favorite target during the regular season, but he has shared more of the workload during the postseason. He did lead the team with seven receiving touchdowns during the regular season, and he has one in the playoffs. If he does record the first touchdown, you’re almost certainly betting on the Patriots to sustain a long drive that pushes them close to the goal line as Henry becomes the redzone weapon of choice.

Kayshon Boutte +1800

To round out the list at +1800 odds you have Kayshon Boutte who has been the Patriots leading receiver during the playoffs. He has been targeted 20.5% of the time and is averaging 18.4 yards per reception. He has seven total touchdowns this season, and again his likelihood of being the game first touchdown scorer increases if the Patriots reach the redzone.

My Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba +550 – He is the best skill position player in this game. There is no doubt that the Patriots will be all over him, but he is a big-time player who makes big time plays. With the Patriots statistically a slower team, it makes it easier to focus on Seattle players to be the games first touchdown, and Smith-Njigba leads all those players in, not only touchdowns, but also in scoring the first touchdown of the game.

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