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2026 Super Bowl Betting Trends for Handicapping

by Spencer Toth - 2/2/2026

Super Bowl betting trends Jaxon Smith-Njigba Seattle Seahawks

The 2026 Super Bowl will be the most bet-on event of the year, with billions of dollars expected to be wagered on the game. Last year, $23 billion was bet on the Super Bowl, and this year will almost certainly be even more.
Before placing a single dollar on Super Bowl LX, you must make yourself aware of the countless betting trends heading into the big game. Whether you are placing significant wagers on online sportsbooks, or simply making friendly bets with friends, knowing the Super Bowl trends is crucial for your success, and there is one that always sticks out like a sore thumb. The outright Super Bowl winner has gone 50-7-2 against the spread. It is not as if there are often double-digit spreads in the biggest game of the year, but this trend is still one that cannot be ignored.

The -4.5 point spread in favor of Seattle is the largest since 2016, which makes this trend as relevant as ever. If you plan on betting on Seattle this year, laying the points is the way to go instead of the -240 moneyline. If you are looking to bet on New England, taking the +190 moneyline is the better bet than the +4.5 point spread. While the points will be nice to have in the back pocket, the reduced odds are not worth the added security.
This is just one of dozens of trends heading into Super Bowl LX, and it cannot be overemphasized how critical these are for success on Sunday. 

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NFC Champion: Seattle Seahawks Trends:
The Seahawks soared to the top of the NFC with a 14-3 regular season record, then followed it up with a pair of playoff wins to move to 16-3 overall. Against the spread, they weren’t quite as impressive, but a 14-5 record is nothing to scoff at. They head into the Super Bowl as a -4.5 point favorite against New England and have a stellar 4-0 record straight up and against the spread as -4 to -7 point favorites. Seattle’s excellent defense was the driving force behind their success, but the reality is that this team was not an under machine this season. Despite several strong defensive showings, Seattle still went 11-8 to the over in the regular season and playoffs. The 45.5 point Super Bowl total is a few points higher than usual for Seattle, and they have gone 3-2 to the under in the five games with 45+ point closing totals. 

AFC Champion: New England Patriots Trends
New England got off to a rocky start to the season, losing to the Las Vegas Raiders before swelling up to 120-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. However, things quickly changed for the Patriots, as they went on to finish 14-3 in the regular season to snap the Bills’ streak of five straight division titles. Against the spread, the Patriots went 11-6 in the regular season before going 2-1 in the playoffs. New England’s historically weak schedule is often used as justification for their Super Bowl appearance, but the reality is that this team not only won, but they covered against the league’s bottom-feeders. The Patriots went a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread as a double-digit favorite this season, and 7-1 as a favorite of 4 or more points. In the Super Bowl, New England will find themselves in the underdog role for the 7th time this season. They have gone 4-2 both straight up and against the spread as an underdog, which is another reason to take the moneyline over the points with the Patriots. 

Regarding the total, New England went 11-6 to the over in the regular season, before going 2-1 to the under in the playoffs. Drake Maye and the Patriots' offense were incredibly consistent at running up the score, allowing the Patriots to consistently go over the total when they were big favorites on the spread. In closer games, New England leaned on their defense for success, going 6-5 to the under in one-score games. Based on the Patriots' trends, Super Bowl LX will go over if it’s a blowout, but stay under if it remains a tense affair. 

Head-to-Head Trends:
The New England Patriots have struggled against the Seattle Seahawks in head-to-head meetings, going 0-4 since 2012 in the regular season. However, the Patriots won the game that mattered, beating Seattle 28-24 in the 2015 Super Bowl. Seattle may have won all four regular-season meetings of the last decade and a half, but they were all one-score wins with a combined margin of victory of just 16 points. New England’s Super Bowl win was also a one-score win, and the more interesting trends appear when looking at the total. Four of the last five meetings between these two went over the 45.5 point total for the Super Bowl. These two appear to have figured each other out offensively, but with no remaining players on either roster from their 2012, 2015, and 2016 meetings, not too much weight can be put on their head-to-head results. Seattle won 23-20 as a -3 point road favorite in 2024, pushing the spread, after they won and covered 35-30 as a -4 point favorite in 2020. 

Super Bowl Trends:
Regardless of the two teams playing, a few Super Bowl trends for the big game have emerged. First of all, the 50-7-2 against the spread record for the outright winner cannot be ignored. Laying the points with Seattle instead of taking the -240 moneyline is how you should attack the favorites. The -110 odds compared to the -240 odds are a huge difference, and it is unlikely that the Seahawks will win, but not cover in this matchup. For New England, taking the moneyline at +190 is the way to go, as they will likely either win a close one or get blown out by Seattle. 

For the total, the Over took a 29-28-1 lead over the under after the Chiefs and Eagles flew over the line last season. A 45.5 point total is lower than usual, and is the lowest since the 43 point total between the Panthers and Broncos in Super Bowl L 10 years ago. This is not a surprising stat to see, as the Seahawks and Patriots have the first and second-ranked defensive units in the league. Their offenses are capable of putting up points in a hurry, but we are unlikely to see several explosive plays strung together at Super Bowl LX. 

In their previous Super Bowl meeting, Tom Brady and the Patriots prevailed as -1 point favorites, while the over 47.5 points cashed by the finest of margins. This will be the first time the Patriots are underdogs in the Super Bowl since Brady’s rookie year, and it could be the last time we see Maye as an underdog in the biggest game of the season.  

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