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Best Bets with Expert Picks and Predictions for 2026 Super Bowl Props

by Spencer Toth - 2/5/2026

Best bets for Super Bowl props AJ Barner Seattle Seahawks

The Super Bowl presents the deepest betting menu of the entire NFL season, with sportsbooks posting hundreds, if not thousands, of props across traditional and specialty markets. The moneyline, spread, and total will dominate headlines, but the real money to be made is on player props. Player props are offered on every NFL regular-season and playoff game, and the Super Bowl is no exception. While casual bettors will be distracted by the novelty bets, the hardcore cappers have an entire two weeks to unpack the player prop market. A few touchdown scorers and player over/unders have caught my eye, and after writing a dozen Super Bowl LX articles this year, these stand out as my top Super Bowl prop picks. Without further ado, here are the top player prop bets for Super Bowl LX.

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Quarterback Props

Sam Darnold:

Passing Yards: O/U 229.5

Passing Touchdowns: O 1.5 (-120), U 1.5 (-105)

Passing Completions: O/U 19.5

Rushing Yards: O/U 6.5

Interception? -130 Yes, +100 No

Drake Maye:

Passing Yards: O/U 220.5

Passing Touchdowns: O 1.5 (+120), U 1.5 (-150)

Passing Completions: O/U 19.5

Rushing Yards: O/U 38.5

Interception? -150 Yes, +120 No

These two quarterbacks have had very different career paths to reach their first Super Bowl, yet their props are very similar across many major categories. Starting with Sam Darnold, I am a big believer in the Seahawks offense, but expecting two touchdowns through the air is a tall task. Darnold has only thrown multiple passing touchdowns in four of his last 11 starts, and it is a bit surprising to see the over favored in this matchup. New England has a very good secondary and has only given up multiple passing touchdowns once in their last ten games. They allowed only two passing touchdowns combined in their three playoff games, and they are unlikely to be exposed over the top by Darnold. Additionally, the ghosts of Seattle throwing the ball in the red zone in a Super Bowl against the Patriots could be brought up, and I doubt that Seattle will look to pass the ball at the one-yard line this time around. Under 1.5 passing touchdowns at -105 is the way to go. 

For Drake Maye, the best pick you can make is on him to throw an interception at -150 odds. Maye’s ball security has been subpar during the Patriots playoff run, and the Seahawks defense will be incredibly hungry in the open field. Maye has thrown a pick in eight of his last 14 games, and many of those were against defenses much worse than Seattle’s. The Seahawks generated 18 interceptions in the regular season, and will almost certainly haul in at least one off Maye. The Patriots' offense runs through the passing game, and New England will have no choice but to unleash Maye with no limitations. 

Pick: Sam Darnold Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns -105

Pick: Drake Maye Interception -150

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends (Yards, Receptions)

Seattle Seahawks:

Jaxson Smith-Njigba 95.5, 6.5

Cooper Kupp 32.5, 2.5

AJ Barner 24.5, 2.5

Rashid Shaheed 20.5, 1.5

The Seattle receiving corps is led by Jaxson Smith-Njigba, who was one of the best receivers all year long. His ability to get open and catch anything in his radius has made him the perfect WR1 for Sam Darnold. Having a former Super Bowl MVP in the WR2 role is even better, and taking Cooper Kupp to have a big game is the best bet of the bunch. Kupp knows how to rise to the occasion in big games, and even though he isn’t on Smith-Njigba’s level anymore, he will still get his fair share of targets. Patriots’ corner Christian Gonzalez will be draped on Smith-Njigba for most of the contest, leaving Kupp as the next best option. Kupp has gone over his receiving line in three of his last five, and this is a rock-bottom price for one of the best receivers in the game. Rashid Shaheed also has value, as he represents the deep ball threat for Seattle. The Patriots generally do a good job of keeping things in front of them, but it only takes one Shaheed break to cash his total. Instead of touching the standard 20.5 yards line, we will instead take 30+ at +155 and 50+ at +425. While special teams is his specialty, he is explosive in the open field, and could cash both of these props in a single play. 

 

Pick: Cooper Kupp Over 32.5 Receiving Yards

Pick: Rashid Shaheed 30+ (+155) and 50+ (+425) Receiving Yards

New England Patriots

Stefon Diggs 43.5, 4.5

Hunter Henry 40.5, 3.5

Kayshon Boutte 28.5, 2.5

Mack Hollins 23.5, 2.5

Demario Douglas 10.5, 1.5

Austin Hooper 9.5, 1.5

The Patriots have a much deeper receiving corps than the Seahawks. Stefon Diggs is the WR1 in New England, but his 43.5-yard prop isn’t even half of what Smith-Njigba is expected to haul in. That gives us several different options to exploit, and the first will be taking Kayshon Boutte to stay under 2.5 receptions. Diggs and Hunter Henry will be the primary options for Maye, and there are limited game scripts that involve dialing up 3+ receptions for Boutte. He exploded against the Texans and Chargers for 65+ yards in both of those games, but he still barely cleared his receptions prop. Boutte’s best work comes through intermediate routes, which will involve him getting fewer targets but more yards. With a line of 2.5, the under is the way to go. There is too much uncertainty with the rest of the Patriots to warrant any other bets in this category. Stick with Boutte’s under. 

Pick: Kayshon Boutte Under 2.5 Receptions -130

Running Backs, Rushing Yards

Kenneth Walker III, 70.5

George Holani, 10.5

Rhamondre Stevenson, 48.5

TreVeyon Henderson, 18.5

Kenneth Walker is expected to get the bulk of the rushing work for Seattle, but this line still feels a bit too high. Walker ran for 80+ yards in three of his first five games this year, but has only done so three times since. Losing Zach Charbonnet in the backfield will give him more touches, but it still leaves him needing 20+ carries unless he breaks off for a big gain. Walker’s strong playoff run has inflated this line, and once you add in the fact that the public loves betting on the favorite’s RB1, the under is the way to go. I also expect the Patriots to keep this one close, which will take even more carries away from Walker. George Holani missed much of the season due to injury, and his role will be limited unless Walker picks up an injury. 

For the Patriots, the job of breaking down their backfield is much tougher. It was looking like TreVeyon Henderson was going to take over the RB1 job midway through the year, but his role has dramatically dipped in recent weeks. He hasn’t eclipsed 30 yards yet in any of the three playoff games despite getting a combined 21 carries in their first two games. Stevenson has been much more consistent; his ball security issues have evaporated, and he is expected to demand a large share of the carries on Sunday. He has cleared the 48.5 rushing yards line in all three playoff games so far, and there is no reason to expect anything less against Seattle. New England will need to prioritize the run to keep the Seattle defense honest, and they will do it with Stevenson more often than not. 

Pick: Kenneth Walker III Under 70.5 Rushing Yards

Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 48.5 Rushing Yards

Touchdown Scorers

There are dozens of touchdown scorer props to unpack, so I will only be going over the three that I think have the most value heading into Super Bowl LX. However, you must be wary of getting too heavily invested in the touchdown markets. The 45.5 point total is the lowest in the Super Bowl since 2016, and these one-way lines can often be overjuiced on some sportsbooks. You can have some fun with touchdown props, but a majority of your bankroll should be focused on the two-way lines. 

Rhamondre Stevenson: +150

Kenneth Walker is coming in with -190 odds to find the end zone, while Stevenson is up at +150. I know the Seahawks are favored, but this large of an odds discrepancy between the two RB1s is hard to justify. Stevenson has yet to find the end zone in the postseason, but he wrapped up the regular season with four scores in the final three games. His involvement in the red zone isn’t going anywhere, so as long as New England can move the ball down the field, Stevenson will have his opportunities to score. Seattle does do a good job of creating goal-line stands, but with a +150 price tag, we have no choice but to ride with Stevenson. 

AJ Barner: +250

AJ Barner has been a great safety blanket for Darnold this season. He hasn’t been heavily leaned on in the playoffs, but the matchups haven’t been favorable. Darnold has been able to avoid pressure from the Rams and 49ers, but will find himself scrambling for options much more often against New England. Barner is a big tight end who can do it all, and his snap share will be large with the season on the line. He hauled in six touchdowns in the regular season, and they all came against physical teams like the Patriots. When Darnold needs someone to turn to in the red zone, he will happily dump it off to Barner whenever he can. 

Drake Maye: +300

Speaking of running one in against Seattle, I expect Drake Maye to scramble his way to the end zone in this one. Maye has activated his legs this playoff run, and it has paid off in a big way. Seattle will be looking to generate maximum pressure up front, which will give Maye opportunities to tuck the ball and get down the field. We also have the added benefit of a potential quarterback sneak at the one-yard line, which has been effective for the Patriots in recent weeks. At +300, this prop offers multiple viable paths to victory. 

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