2021 Super Bowl Betting Trends
If you are into betting on football, which I’m sure you are if you’re reading this article, you’ve definitely heard the phrase, “good teams win, but great teams cover”. Well, in the betting industry that is very true. However, can you convince me that a great team like the Chiefs is not really that great because they have a losing ATS record? Maybe, but all the Chiefs care about – heck, all any team cares about – is winning football games by any means necessary.
If you are the kind of handicapper that places more value in matchups, strategy, injuries, and what the coach ate for breakfast the night before the big game, I have an article for that kind of handicapping coming out closer to Super Bowl Sunday. If you are a person who trusts trends and attaches value to team history, then this article is the one for you. This piece will give you relevant Super Bowl betting trends from this year and beyond, and the key to turning out a profit in the Big Game may lay within these trends.
Kansas City Chiefs
If you looked at the Chiefs’ from just a record and stats perspective and saw 16-2 and the No. 1 offense in the league, you would be inclined to believe that they were money makers for bettors throughout the season. That just simply wasn’t the case. Not by a long shot. The Chiefs are 8-10 ATS coming into the Super Bowl and are just 1-1 ATS in the playoffs.
The Chiefs opened up the season by going 4-0 and covering the spread in three of those four games. Between Weeks 5 and 8, they added another 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS run to the cards before going on a major ATS losing streak. From Week 9 onwards, the Chiefs won seven of their eight remaining regular-season games but covered the spread only one time – a 32-29 win over New Orleans as 2.5-point favorites.
It’s hard to imagine a team as good as the Chiefs are winning eight straight games but not getting more than a single ATS cover in that span. Mind you, only once they were favored by less than a FG (the game they covered) and in three games they were favored by double digits.
Similar to last year, playing away from home was not all that troubling for the Chiefs. They posted a perfect 8-0 record away from home, but the ATS results were mediocre as they went just 4-4 ATS outside of Missouri.
From a total’s perspective, Chiefs games are not more inclined to go over or under their total as they have split the regular season 8-8 O/U and through two games in this year’s playoffs, they are 1-1.
The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites, 11-5 ATS in their last 16 vs a team with a winning record, but just 1-4 ATS in their last five after scoring 30 or more points. The total has gone over in four of the last five games following an SU win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If you look at the Bucs from a betting perspective, you’d find that they were just as good against the spread as they were winning games straight up. Including playoffs, the Bucs own a 14-5 straight up record and an 11-8 record against the spread. They won and covered the spread in their only Super Bowl appearance. Therefore, if you are into those kinds of omens, it might be a good place to start.
The Bucs were quick out of the gate to open the season, winning six of their first eight games. However, in those contests, they covered the spread only 50 percent of the time – with six games seeing them close as favorites. Between Weeks 9 and 12, the Bucs won three of four games but managed to go just 2-2 ATS, which includes the Week 12 cover at home against the Chiefs. So far this postseason, the Bucs are 2-1 ATS, with their lone failure to cover the spread coming in the Wild Card game against the Football Team; a game in which they closed as 10.5-point favorites. At home, the Bucs went 5-3 straight up and against the spread.
From a total’s perspective, the Bucs played nine of their 16 regular-season games to the over and two of their first three playoff games this season have also gone over the total.
The Bucs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs a team with a winning record, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Chiefs. The total has gone over in four straight following an ATS win and nine of their last 13 games in which they were an underdog.
These two teams met in Week 12 of the regular season in Tampa, and it was Kansas City who walked away with a 27-24 win. In that game, the Chiefs jumped out to a 17-0 first-quarter lead and led 27-10 heading into the fourth quarter before Tampa made it close and almost pulled off the comeback. Mahomes and Brady combined for 807 yards and six touchdowns, and the two teams combined for 960 yards of total offense. From a betting perspective, the Chiefs went into the game as 3.5-point favorites with and the total was set at 56. The game stayed under the number, while those who backed the Chiefs were likely sick to their stomachs as they watched their cash go up in flames in the fourth quarter.
Super Bowl history
When the Chiefs made the Super Bowl last year, it marked their third super bowl appearance and first in 50 years. Fast forward one year and the Chiefs are making their second trip to the Super Bowl in as many years and will be looking to extend their ATS streak in the Big Game to 3-1 after they covered the low spread last season against the 49ers.
Tampa Bay is making just their second-ever trip to the Super Bowl. And lucky for them, they don’t have to travel very far as it’s being played at Raymond James Stadium, home of, yup, you guessed it, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs beat Oakland in 2002 for their only Super Bowl win and covered the spread in that game as well.
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