2020 Super Bowl Betting Trends
Not all NFL handicappers see a lot of value in looking back at history - especially history that stretches back beyond the past several weeks. Some are much more interested in looking at matchups, strategy, and what will appear on the field than what happened in the past. If you think that way, then this article is not for you. If you attach value to history, though, then you have come to the right place. This is a survey of relevant Super Bowl betting trends from this year and beyond. The key to placing a winning bet could be in among these stats:
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have been very good this year - to bettors and on the scoreboard - except for when they weren't. They opened up by winning and covering the spread in three games. And they went 5-0-1 ATS in their last six regular season games and 2-0 ATS in the playoffs to date. That 9-0-1 ATS stretch is pretty much as good as it gets. But it's the meat in that sandwich of success that was more problematic. From the end of September to the middle of November, the team went an ugly 2-5 ATS. Some of that was when Patrick Mahomes was on the sidelines, and some was when the team's mojo was just MIA for a while.
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Playing on the road is not a particular concern for this team. They were a solid 6-3-1 ATS at home, but a slightly more impressive 6-2 ATS away from home.
The team has gone over the total in their last three games, but that followed five straight games under the total, so their recent explosiveness has not been sustained. Overall, they went over the total 10 times in 18 games.
If the Chiefs hold on to their current favoritism, that will be a good thing - they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games as favorites. They are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 following an ATS win, so history suggests that they could carry the momentum of last week forward to their Super Bowl matchup with the Niners . They have gone over the total in seven of their last nine against teams with winning records.
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco was only slightly less successful on the season than the Chiefs, going 11-6-1 ATS compared to the 12-5-1 ATS mark for Kansas City. And they also hit some midseason doldrums, going 1-3-1 ATS in a five-game stretch starting October 20. The Niners have the identical 6-2 ATS road mark that the Chiefs have, so playing away from their comfortable home turf won't be an issue. From a betting perspective, it's actually a good thing - the team was only 5-4-1 ATS at home, and that only turned into a slightly profitable mark after covering the two playoff spreads.
The team was slightly less useful than the Chiefs when it came to totals as well, with the over going 9-8-1 on the season. The over was just 3-4-1 away from home, though.
San Francisco has covered their last five spreads as an underdog, so they wouldn't be intimidated by going into this game as one here. And they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with winning records. They are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following wins by two touchdowns or more, though, so the big win last time out might not be a great omen.
The teams met in the third game of the preseason this year. Kansas City won 27-17 at home, but given that it was the preseason, and that five quarterbacks appeared in the game, taking anything from that game would obviously be a big mistake. The Chiefs have gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the teams, though. Not that it is relevant in this case, but the home team has covered the last four spreads.
Super Bowl history
Kansas City is appearing in just their third Super Bowl and, as I am sure you have heard by now, their first in 50 years. They were double-digit underdogs in both games, going 1-1 both straight up and ATS.
San Francisco is making their seventh appearance in the Super Bowl. They won the first five games before losing last time to the Ravens in the battle of the coaching Harbaughs. This could be the first game in which the Niners have not been fired, and they have gone 4-2 ATS up to this point.
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