2023 Super Bowl Betting Trends

by Spencer Toth - 2/3/2023

The Super Bowl is the biggest American sports event of the year, and the sheer amount of money wagered increases every year. Last year, close to $7 billion was wagered across the United States; that’s an average of almost $20 per American citizen. This year’s matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles is projected to have $8 billion wagered, breaking the single sports record in the United States.

There are several trends heading into the big game, surrounding both teams and the Super Bowl itself. The most alarming stat is that the outright winner is 47-7-2 ATS. Therefore, if you’re planning on betting on the Eagles, lay the points, and if you’re planning on betting on the Chiefs, grab the plus money Moneyline. Trends like these can be the difference-maker when placing bets and will keep you in the green in the long run.

Super Bowl betting trends Andy Reid Kansas City Chiefs

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AFC Champion: The Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will be competing in their 3rd Super Bowl in the last 4 years, and they had to battle through adversity to get here. In the offseason, the Chiefs traded their star receiver, Tyreek Hill, for a boatload of draft picks, and there were doubts that the fluid Chiefs offense would find success this season. These doubts were quickly dispelled, as the Chiefs cruised to a 14-3 finish and are heading to the Super Bowl on a 7-game win streak. Mahomes was able to spread the ball nicely around his receivers and dump the ball off to star tight end Travis Kelce when the game got tough. A whopping 8 players had 250+ receiving yards in the regular season, forcing defenses to play honest, as every receiver is always a viable option. Mahomes proved he can thrive without Hill, and Chiefs locked up the number 1 seed in the AFC. Their 3 losses came by a combined 8 points, allowing the Chiefs to finish with an impressive +127 point differential.

Despite the success, the Chiefs finished with a negative ATS record of 7-11-1, as they consistently found themselves overvalued in tight games, and their games more often than not finished under the total, going 8-11. Despite this, the Chiefs had a sparkling 5-0 record straight up and ATS against NFC opponents this season and will be looking to make it a perfect 6-0 against the Eagles on Sunday.

NFC Champion: Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles entered the 2022-23 season as underdogs to win their division, let alone reach the Super Bowl. The Eagles last made the Super Bowl in 2018, when Nick Foles took over for an injured Carson Wentz late in the regular season, before leading his team to a miraculous playoff run, capping it off with a thrilling 41-33 win over Tom Brady’s Patriots. This year, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts played in his 3rd NFL season, and the young quarterback was playing at an MVP caliber throughout the season. He finished with a 22-6 TD-INT ratio and was 10th in the league in passing yards, and 4th in QB rushing yards, despite missing 2 of the final 3 games via injury. The Eagles jumped out to a perfect 8-0 start, before falling to the Commanders in Week 10. While the perfect season was eliminated, they bounced back nicely, winning 5-straight to go to 13-1. They finished with an identical 14-3 record to the Chiefs but were better at covering the spread, going 9-8. While they were good throughout the year, the Eagles failed to cover in their final 4 regular season games, falling an average of 7.6 points short.

The Eagles were top 6 in both offense and defense, and there are very few weak spots up and down their lineup. A lethal pass rush combined with a stingy secondary is a recipe for success in the NFL, and the Eagles gave up the fewest passing yards while accumulating the most sacks. On the offensive side of the ball, the Eagles were top 3 in points, yards, touchdowns, first downs, and interceptions, and had a 6-4 record ATS in games that finished Over the total. Head coach Nick Sirianni loves to go for it on 4th down, as we saw early in the 49ers game when he went for it on 4th and 3 on their first drive, but the Eagles are just 3-4 ATS in games where they missed a fourth down conversion.

The Eagles also went a perfect 5-0 in interconference games but were just 3-2 ATS against the AFC.

Head-to-Head:

These two teams last met in October of last season, where the Chiefs won 42-30 in a high scoring thriller. Whenever these two teams meet, much is made of the Andy Reid Bowl. Reid was the head coach of the Eagles from 1999-2012, amassing a respectable 130-93-1 regular season record during his Eagles tenure and a 10-9 postseason record. He then moved on, taking the helm of the Chiefs, and has just gotten better. He has a 117-45 regular season record, and a sparkling 11-7 postseason record, with a Super Bowl title to his name.

Most impressive is his 3-0 record against his former team, and he is a remarkable 6-0 in Chiefs-Eagles games, winning his first 3 games against the Chiefs as the Eagles head coach, before evening up the score at 3-3 once he switched teams. Keeping his perfect record intact for one more game would result in his second career Super Bowl and another knock against his former team.

Super Bowl Trends:

The Super Bowl itself has numerous trends at play. First of all, as previously mentioned, the outright winner is a remarkable 47-7-2 ATS. And considering the marginal 1.5-point spread for this year's game, that record will likely be improving. Playing the Moneyline on the underdogs, and laying the points on the favorite is definitely the way to go in Glendale, Arizona.

Another trend emerging in the big game is the winner on the ground, often wins the game. The team with more rushing yards has gone 41-15 on the moneyline and 39-14-3 ATS. Whichever team can get it going on the ground will put themselves in a fantastic position to win the game, and the Eagles ranked 5th in rushing yards this season, while the Chiefs were 20th.

Finally, while this may not have a direct impact on the game, any Super Bowl trends analysis would not be complete without mentioning the coin toss. The team that has won the coin toss, has gone on to lose the game in 8 consecutive Super Bowls. Of course, this may just be a statistical anomaly, but the players will certainly know this trend, and it will dig at their mindset if the coin toss victor finds themselves down early in the game.

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Start:	September 23, 2023 @ 1:00 PM
Expert:	Griffin Murphy
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2023 Super Bowl Betting Trends

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