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2022 Super Bowl Handicapping and Betting Advice

by Robert Ferringo - 2/7/2022

2022 Super Bowl handicapping Ja'Marr Chase Cincinnati Bengals

I think it is fitting that Fate and the Football Gods have bestowed upon us the Cincinnati Bengals versus the Los Angeles Rams in this year’s Super Bowl. It is a bizarre ending to what has been a somewhat bizarre season. And you have to ask yourself, which is the crazier storyline about to be written: Matthew Stafford winning a Super Bowl or the Cincinnati Bengals winning the Super Bowl?

Cincinnati will take on Los Angeles at 6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 13 in Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium in L.A. The Rams are currently 4.5-point favorites and the total is currently 48.5.

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The matchup is outlandish. The Rams are playing the Super Bowl in their home stadium, something that hadn’t happened in the first 54 years of Super Bowl history and has now happened in back-to-back seasons. The Bengals are, well, the Bengals. They are one of the worst organizations in North American sports and they haven’t been to a Super Bowl since 1988.

This is also the first time in Super Bowl history that neither participant finished in the Top 3 in their respective conferences. And the preseason odds of this specific matchup for the championship was somewhere in the neighborhood of the odds of Joe Biden and Donald Trump becoming best friends.

Despite the oddity of this championship, bettors can still launch their Super Bowl assault on the sportsbooks using some conventional methods. After all, football is football. So, if you are going to try to cash in on this Sunday’s Big Game, the least I can do is give you some tried and true Super Bowl betting tips.

Here you go:

1. Bet The Team You Think Is Going To Win

Too many bettors psyche themselves out thinking about the spread in the Super Bowl. They get bogged down in “line value” and “key numbers” and other technical aspects of point spread analysis that are generally very useful in sports betting.

Those concepts aren’t that useful in Super Bowl betting.

The Super Bowl winner has covered the spread 12 straight years. Just three times in the last 25 years has a team lost the game but covered the number. The last time it happened was Super Bowl XLIII when Arizona lost to Pittsburgh but beat the 7.0 spread.

It is significant that the sportsbooks opened the Super Bowl spread at 3.5 and have moved it all the way to 4.5. It wouldn’t stun me if the number continues to climb another point throughout the week. However, don’t bet the Bengals because you think they can “keep it close” or that the spread is above the key numbers of 3.0 and 4.0. If you bet the Bengals, you do it because you think they are the better team and that they are going to win the game. If not, your options are to jump on the Rams and look for a big win or to stay away from the side altogether.

2. Bet With Your Head, Not Your Heart

Wager on what you think is going to happen – not what you want to happen. Maybe you love the Cinderella story of Joe Burrow and the Bengals. That’s great. However, if you don’t really believe that they are GOING to go on the road and beat this veteran Rams team, then don’t bet it to happen just because that’s what you want to see.

The same reasoning applies to the total. The sportsbooks always jack up the total in the Super Bowl because they know that the general public wants to bet the game ‘over’. The reason they want to bet the game ‘over’ is because subconsciously they know that it is more fun to watch a high-scoring game, so they are wagering on what they want to see rather than what the matchups dictate.

Emotion is the enemy of any gambler. Follow the numbers and be objective.

3. Dive Into The Props

This is where the real edge is in Super Bowl betting. Sportsbooks release hundreds of prop bets in this game to stimulate action. The result is that roughly one-third of the $7 billion that’s wagered annually on the Super Bowl comes in on prop wagers.

The oddsmakers are a bit exposed here. They have the burden of trying to set solid, accurate numbers on those hundreds of prop bets. You only need to find one or two weak numbers and you can hit them hard and cash in.

To counter this discrepancy, sportsbooks generally have low limits on prop bets. However, because the sportsbooks all usually just copy one another’s lines, the numbers on these Super Bowl props are usually pretty close across the board. That makes it easy for bettors to get money down on one prop that they like at several different books.

4. Commit To The Bit

Once you have decided how you think this game is going to play out, then you need to bet accordingly.

If you think that the Bengals are going to win in a shootout, then you should be looking at the props for key offensive weapons like Ja’Marr Chase or Joe Mixon and betting them ‘over’. If you think that the Rams defense is going to shut down Cincinnati’s attack, then you should target those same prop bets and play them ‘under’.

Correlated betting strategy can be a boom or bust approach. If you load up on the Rams to win big and score a lot of points and correlate all your prop bets on Rams offensive players to beat their numbers and then the game turns out to be a 17-14 defensive grinder, then you can get crushed at the window.

However, that is still a better strategy than betting conflicting numbers – like taking the ‘under’ on the game total but betting both quarterbacks to go ‘over’ their passing yardage props – and sabotaging a chance at a big day.

5. Treat It Like Any Other Game

Honestly, I have very little interest in the Super Bowl. Not this particular Super Bowl; any Super Bowl. By this point I’ve been neck-deep in football since June. I’m ready for the season to end. It’s ironic, I know. But the biggest football betting day of the year is probably the least interested I am in NFL betting all year long.

You don’t have to adopt my grouchy approach to the Super Bowl. But there’s also no need to go crazy. You don’t get hero points for winning a Super Bowl bet. Winning $2,000 on a college basketball game on a Tuesday in December is worth the exact same amount as winning $2,000 on a Super Bowl side play.

It’s easy to get swept up in the emotion and grandeur of The Big Game. You need to keep your wits about you. Don’t try to be a hero and don’t overplay your hand. There is definitely money to be made on Super Sunday. But “going for broke” or “going all in” on the championship game is for tourists and amateurs.

Carpe diem. Good luck.

Robert Ferringo is a member of the Pro Football Writers Association and has been one of the best football handicappers in the country. Robert has posted 13 of 15 winning Super Bowls and for a full decade from 2010-2019 he banked over +$40,000 in football profit. Robert is looking forward to another Super Bowl score and you can take advantage of his selections exclusively at Doc’s Sports.

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