MLB Series Picks: Mets at Yankees Odds and Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 6/7/2012
Interleague play takes over Major League Baseball for the next couple of weeks starting Friday, and, as usual, the series getting the most hype is the Subway Series between the New York Mets and Yankees – this three-game set is in the Bronx.
The Yankees feast on interleague play as they have MLB’s best all-time record at 158-109, although they did lose two of three at home to the Cincinnati Reds from May 18-20 in their first interleague series of the year. The Mets have been one of the National League’s better teams against the AL, going 128-122. But they lost two of three at Toronto in May in their first interleague series of the year.
The Bronx Bombers lead the all-time interleague series with the Mets, 49-35, and won four of six last year, taking two of three at home and away. And the Yankees lead in the most important category: World Series wins head-to-head, beating the Mets in five games in the 2000 Fall Classic.
Mets at Yankees Betting Story Lines
No one would have been the least surprised if you had told them the Yankees would be at or near the lead of the American League East when they faced the Mets for the first time. But if you had said the Mets were contending this late in the season in the NL East, you probably would have been given a breathalyzer test.
The Mets ended a three-game skid with a 3-1 series finale win at NL East-leading Washington on Thursday afternoon. New York was hoping to get back outfielder Jason Bay in that game. He has missed six weeks with a fractured rib. Bay was activated Wednesday but didn’t play that night. He was supposed to play in Thursday’s matinee and bat sixth but was a late scratch with the flu. Bay, a major disappointment since coming to New York, is hitting .240 with three homers and five RBI. He probably plays Friday.
In addition, the Mets are down to their fourth-string shortstop in Omar Quintanilla. He’s only playing because Ruben Tejada, Ronny Cedeno and Justin Turner are all hurt and not close to returning. Quintanilla can’t hit a lick (career .215) but is a good defender. The only guy currently behind him is rookie Jordany Valdespin, a natural second baseman who committed two errors at shortstop Tuesday on routine ground balls.
The Yankees, meanwhile, remain without closer David Robertson (oblique strain), but he could start a rehab assignment this weekend. Robertson replaced Mariano Rivera when the Hall of Famer went down for the season with a knee injury before Robertson himself got hurt. But Robertson will go back to his set-up role whenever he returns because Rafael Soriano has been terrific closing games in Robertson’s absence.
Mets at Yankees Probable Starting Pitchers
Friday: Mets LHP Johan Santana (3-2, 2.38) vs. Yankees RHP Hiroki Kuroda (4-6, 3.82) -- All eyes will be on Santana in the opener as he looks to join Johnny Vander Meer as the only pitchers in MLB history to throw consecutive no-hitters (Vander Meer did it in 1938 with the Reds). Santana’s normal turn would have been Wednesday, but he was pushed back two days after throwing a career-high 134 pitches in the no-no vs. St. Louis. Manager Terry Collins said there will be no restrictions on Santana, who has thrown back-to-back shutouts, on Friday. Kuroda, meanwhile, knows the Mets well from his Dodgers days. Kuroda is 1-5 with a 5.75 ERA in seven career starts against the Mets.
Saturday: Mets RHP Dillon Gee (4-3, 4.48) vs. Yankees RHP Phil Hughes (5-5, 4.96) -- Gee has gotten no-decisions in his past two starts even though he allowed only a combined four earned runs and 12 hits in 13.2 innings. He faced the Yankees last July 2 at Citi Field, allowing four runs in seven innings and taking the loss. Hughes, meanwhile, bounced back from being bombed by the Angels to pitch a complete game in beating Detroit on Sunday. He allowed just one run on four hits. Hughes is 1-1 with a 4.20 ERA in four career games vs. the Mets.
Sunday: Mets LHP Jon Niese (4-2, 4.11) vs. Yankees LHP Andy Pettitte (3-2, 2.78) – Niese had a major scare last time out, being removed from Sunday's game against the Cardinals after tossing six scoreless innings as a precaution because he experienced a rapid heartbeat during the game. That also happened in a game last year. Niese will have a minor procedure likely during the All-Star break but shouldn’t miss any starts. He faced the Yankees last July 1, allowing three runs and nine hits in seven innings in taking the loss. Pettitte has been a revelation for a struggling Yankee rotation. He has won three straight starts at home for the first time since winning four in a row in 2007 at the original Yankee Stadium. Pettitte is 8-5 with a 3.69 ERA against the Mets.
Mets at Yankees Betting Odds and Trends
The Yanks likely will open somewhere around -160 on the series line with the Mets at +140. For Game 1, the Yankees are -130 favorites with the total at 8.5 runs.
The Mets are 2-5 in their past seven interleague games and in their past seven Friday games overall. The Mets are 1-6 in their past seven openers of a series. They are 3-7 in Santana’s past 10 interleague starts. The Yankees are 8-0 in their past eight Friday games. They are 7-1 in their past eight interleague games vs. a lefty starter. The ‘over’ is 10-1 in the Mets’ past 11 series openers. The ‘under’ is 7-1 in the Yankees’ past eight interleague games. The under is 7-2 in the past nine meetings between these teams. The Mets have won just once in their past five at the Bronx.
MLB Series Picks: Mets at Yankees Betting Predictions
It was a rough start to the season for me in picking series winners – including losing on that Yankees-Reds one (although hit the opener) – but I’ve hit a few in a row now. I would really like to pick the Mets here considering they avoid CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova and have Santana going in Game 1. But I just don’t see the Mets hitting enough. So I am taking the Yanks to win two of three but I do like the Mets in the opener as Santana is bidding to become the first Mets pitcher ever with three straight complete-game shutouts and only the seventh pitcher in the majors to do so since 1990.
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