PGA Tour Golf Odds and Predictions: Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial
by Alan Matthews - 5/23/2012
My predicted winner of last week’s Byron Nelson Championship unfortunately was South African Louis Oosthuizen, who bombed out with rounds of 73-72 to miss the cut. But I did hit on two Top-10 prop bets: Jason Day finished T9 and paid out at +165 with that result. And Matt Kuchar finished outside the Top 10, which seemed inevitable as he was worn out from winning the Players Championship. Kuchar paid at -140 on that prop.
The PGA Tour finishes its Dallas-area two tournament swing this week with the Crowne Plaza Invitational at historic Colonial Country Club, otherwise known as Hogan’s Alley, in Fort Worth Texas. Frankly, it’s a pretty watered-down field. Pretty much every top European this week is in England for the flagship event of the European Tour, the big-money BMW PGA Championship. And some of the big-name Americans are taking this week off ahead of next week’s elite-field Memorial Tournament hosted by Jack Nicklaus. Thus no Tiger, Lefty or Bubba this week, either.
Overall, 19 of the Top 50 in the world are set to tee off on Thursday with just one Top-10 player: Kuchar. But arguably the hottest player in the world is here: Jason Dufner, who made a 25-foot birdie putt on No. 18 on Sunday to win the Byron Nelson. It was Dufner’s second win in his past three tournaments. And you may remember I predicted the first one: the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.
It’s the 65th time Colonial hosts this tournament, although it has had several names over the years. It’s the longest-running active venue for a non-major, with the first tournament staged in 1946 (there wasn’t one in 1949 or 1975). It’s one of the easier courses on Tour. Even though Colonial is a par-70 spread, the average aggregate winning score is 15-under 265 since 2000. However, last year's full-field scoring average landed over par (70.082) for the second time in six years. And the scores could be high in the first two rounds as there are expected to be major wind gusts.
PGA Tour Golf Odds: Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial Favorites
I’m not sure when the last time Zach Johnson was the favorite for a tournament, but I certainly don’t remember it. But the former Masters winner is the 14/1 Bovada favorite. Frankly, Johnson should be the favorite as no one has played Colonial as well as Johnson the past three years. In that stretch, all 12 of his rounds have been in the 60s, including five of 65 or better, for an average of 66.58. He won in 2010, finished fourth last year and T9 in 2009. Colonial has narrow fairways, which suits the short-but-accurate Johnson off the tee.
Kuchar and Rickie Fowler are next at 16/1. As noted above, Kuchar was due a letdown last week and still might not be over his biggest career win. I’m rather surprised he didn’t take this week off ahead of the Memorial. But even being rather worn out, Kuchar still was a solid T15 last week and hasn’t missed a cut all year. Kuchar has just one Top-10 finish here in five tries, ninth in 2008.
Fowler is the second-hottest American player on Tour behind Dufner (by the way, those two are in the same group the first two rounds). In his last three starts, Fowler tied for 10th, earned his maiden win at the Wells Fargo Championship in Charlotte and finished T2 at The Players Championship. This is his third trip to Colonial, with a best finish of T16 a year ago.
Dufner (18/1) and Hunter Mahan (25/1) round out the Top-5 favorites. Dufner’s recent hot streak has likely cemented a spot on the U.S. Ryder Cup team this fall. The guy also just got married, so it has been quite a month or so. He has not had good luck at Colonial, with two missed cuts in three events. Mahan doesn’t seem like a good bet. Yes, he has two wins on Tour this year, but has finished T53 and missed the cut in his previous two events. And Mahan has missed the cut in three of the past five years at this tournament.
PGA Tour Golf Predictions: Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial Picks
Last year, this tournament was the week after the Players Championship. You may remember that David Toms missed a short putt to lose the 2011 Players to K.J. Choi but bounced back here with a final-round 67 to finish at 15-under and a shot ahead of Charlie Wi. It was Toms‘ first win since January 2006. He is at 28/1 to repeat. Toms does have a runner-up, third- and fourth-place finishes here as well. And he's riding major momentum from shooting 8-under on his final 10 holes at the Players Championship for a final-round 65. I don’t like Toms to win but love him at +250 to finish in the Top 10.
Speaking of Top-10 props, I like Johnson to finish inside that group at +150 but Mahan to finish outside it at -270.
But my choice as the winner is Bo Van Pelt at 28/1. Last time out he finished T7 at the Players, his fifth Top 10 of the season. Van Pelt is an excellent ball-striker and that’s a must at this course. It’s clear he likes Colonial as Van Pelt has 11 consecutive rounds in the 60s there. He has never missed a cut in eight tournaments and finished a career-best third last year. Van Pelt gets his second career Tour win.
Doc’s Sports is offering $60 worth of member’s picks absolutely free – no obligation, no sales people – you don’t even have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit any way you please for any handicapper and any sport on Doc’s Sports Advisory Board list of expert sports handicappers. Click here for more details and take advantage of this free $60 picks credit today.
Most Recent Golf Handicapping
- The Open Championship: A Brief History of the PGA's Oldest Major Tournament
- The Masters: A Brief History of the PGA Tour's First Major
- Expert Golf Handicapping: How to Wager on Tiger Woods Return to the Links
- 2017 Masters Picks with Odds and Expert Golf Betting Predictions
- Tiger Woods 2017 Betting Props with Expert Betting Predictions
- Olympic Men's Golf Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Picks
- 2016 Canadian Open Picks with Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
- PGA Tour Picks: Northern Trust Open Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
- Rory McIlroy Odds to Win The Masters with Picks and Expert Predictions
- PGA Tour Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Odds and Predictions