2013 Kentucky Derby Props Odds
by Dave Schwab - 4/30/2013
The 2013 Triple Crown horse racing season for the top three-year old thoroughbreds in the sport gets underway this Saturday with the running of the 139th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville. This is race is the crown jewel of the three-race series followed by the Preakness Stakes in two weeks and the Belmont Stakes in early June.
While most of the action from the betting public for this race tends to gravitate towards picking the outright winner, Sportsbook.ag has released a number of prop bets as well to add to the excitement of Derby Day. The following is a look at a few of the more interesting ones out there.
The Winning Time
Triple Crown winner Secretariat set the record for the Kentucky Derby in 1973 with a 1:59.40 run around the 1 ¼-mile track and remains just one of just two horses to finish below the two-minute mark in this race. The “over/under” time for this year’s race has been set at 2:02:50, with the money line on the over listed at +105 and the under listed at -135.
The winning horse came in under this time in eight of the last 12 Kentucky Derbies, including I’ll Have Another’s 2:01:83 winning time in last year’s race. Stick with the under this time around as well with a deep, strong and fast field of contenders set for Saturday’s Run for the Roses.
The Winning Horse wins the Preakness Stakes
The “yes” for this prop carries a +150 money line while the “no” is listed at -200. The Preakness is the second leg of the Triple Crown, and the fact that it will be run just two week’s from this Saturday makes recovery time for any horse that runs in the Derby a huge factor in this race.
That being said, the favorable line on the yes is still the way to go. Going all the way back to the 1997 when Silver Charm won both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, a horse has accomplished this feat a total of eight times in 18 years, including I’ll Have Another in 2012. With a few outstanding three-year olds in this year’s field such as Verrazano, Orb and Revolutionary, if one of those favorites goes on to win the Derby, there is little doubt they would go off as a heavy favorite in the Preakness.
The Winning Horse wins the Belmont Stakes
The yes for this prop has a money line of +300 with the no listed at -500. The Belmont is the final and longest leg of the three races at 1.5 miles and has proven over the years to be the achilles heel of many a great thoroughbreds’ pursuit of an elusive Triple Crown. The added length changes everything as there are already some trainers out there that will skip the first two races just to get their horse ready for the Belmont.
Since Affirmed won the last Triple Crown in 1978, there have only been two horses that have won both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes: Swale in 1984 and Thunder Gulch in 1995. So take the risk on the high money line and stick with the no for this prop.
Triple Crown Winner
The money line for yes in this prop is listed at +750 with the no listed at -950. The Triple Crown of racing has been around since 1875, and in all of that time there have been only 11 horses to accomplish this feat, and, as mentioned, none since 1978. While in horse racing anything can happen, there are just too many quality three-year olds out there in today’s day and age for any one horse to dominate the field three separate times. The wear and tear of running these grueling distances three separate times in a little over a month is also a major factor. Last year I’ll Have Another was scratched from the Belmont just a day before the race due to tendonitis, so you know that today’s trainers are not about to risk anything with these horses even if it is for a shot at winning the Triple Crown.
As much as horse racing could use a huge shot in the arm with a dramatic run to a Triple Crown, the odds are too heavily stacked against this happening this year, making no the way to go in this prop.
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