MLB Betting and Handicapping: Totals Trends Report
by Aaron Smith - 9/10/2013
The Boston Red Sox recent hot streak has given them the best record in Major League Baseball once again. Many expected the Red Sox to be much-improved this year, but Boston has exceeded everyone’s expectations. The AL East race that looked like it would be close down to the wire has turned into a Red Sox runaway.
The NL Central is where the best action is with just over two weeks left in the regular season. The Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds all have a legitimate chance at winning the division. These teams will see a lot of each other over the next few weeks. Expect an exciting end to the season in that division.
Doc’s Sports did an NBA totals trends report this year, and we will be doing an MLB totals trends report every other week all season as well. Please note the statistics used in this article are for games played between Aug. 30 and Sept. 9.
Top Five “Over” Teams (Over listed first then under)
-Washington Nationals (7-3) For the second straight time, the Washington Nationals are on this side of the report. Washington’s offense disappointed through the majority of the season, but they have finally heated up over the last few weeks. The Nationals have scored nine runs in three of their last six games overall. The recent offensive explosion is nice, but it may well have come too late for the Nationals to slip into the playoffs.
-Los Angeles Angels (7-3-1) The Nationals better play of late might be too late, but the Angels improved play is definitely far too late! The Angels have been the biggest disappointment in baseball this year, but they have managed to win 12 of their last 17 games. Mike Trout isn’t getting the same attention he did last year, but his numbers are even better. J.B. Shuck is having a very good rookie season. The Angels pitching staff has a horrible 4.29 ERA on the year.
-New York Yankees (8-4) The Yankees brutal series against the Red Sox last weekend really hurt them in their chase to get back into the playoff race. New York still has a bit of an opportunity since no one is running away with the second AL wild card spot, but the bullpen is going to have to be more consistent down the stretch. The Yankees have been losing despite putting up a lot of runs of late.
-St. Louis Cardinals (6-3-1) As you might expect out of a veteran team, the Cardinals bounced back in a big way after losing three out of four in Cincinnati. St. Louis went home and swept the Pittsburgh Pirates to grab first place back in the NL Central. The offense misses Allen Craig, but he should be back in the lineup sooner rather than later. St. Louis will be at home against teams with a losing record the rest of this week, so this is a chance for them to pull away a bit in the division.
-New York Mets (6-4) The New York Mets haven’t had much good news of late. David Wright hasn’t played in the last 35 games, and star pitcher Matt Harvey might need Tommy John surgery. This season is slowly grinding to an end for the Mets. You better believe this is one of those teams that cannot wait for the final game of the season.
Top Five “Under” Teams (Under listed first then over)
-San Francisco Giants (9-2) It came much later than expected, but the San Francisco Giants have finally started getting some good pitching performances from their starters. The Giants offense continues to perform miserably. Five straight Giants games have finished under the posted total. For the year, the Giants are averaging just 3.78 runs per game.
-San Diego Padres (7-2) The Padres offense hasn’t been good all year, but they are a lot worse now that Yonder Alonso is out of the lineup. San Diego is a team that is going to have to make some changes in the offseason if they want to be competitive. The Padres are going to have to find a way to get some more pop into this lineup.
-Kansas City Royals (8-3) How have the Royals made a run late in the year and been relevant in the wild card race? Kansas City’s pitching staff, and more specifically its bullpen, has been absolutely tremendous. Only the Atlanta Braves bullpen has been better this year. The offense has been a disappointment this year. The Royals are averaging only 4.04 runs per game in 2013.
-Arizona Diamondbacks (8-3) Paul Goldschmitt has established himself as a hitting star this year, but the rest of the Arizona lineup leaves a lot to be desired. Consistency has been a major problem for the Diamondbacks’ offense. The young pitching staff started the season great, but they have worn down a bit as the season winds down.
-Texas Rangers (7-3) I’ve been telling everyone who will listen in the totals trends report all year that the Rangers pitching staff is underrated. They continue to be underrated. The under is a stunning 83-53-7 in Texas’ games so far this year. The oddsmakers continue to throw out numbers that are simply too high for a team with an elite starting rotation and a terrific bullpen.
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