Top Props of the Week: 2013 Open Championship Odds and Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 7/16/2013
The third major of the 2013 professional golf season gets underway this week at Muirfield in Scotland. First-round action is set to begin on Thursday in the Open Championship, which is commonly referred to as the British Open.
Wind and weather have the potential to dominate the storylines for this tournament given the location and rough terrain of this course, but once again all eyes will be on Tiger Woods this week. He comes in as Bovada’s odds-on-favorite at 8/1 to end a five-year winless streak in major tournaments that dates back to 2008 when he won the US Open. The following is a look at some of Bovada’s more interesting prop bets for this event that are currently listed on its site.
If you do not think it is Tigers’ week to claim a 15th career title in a Major, you may want to consider a play on him at 12/1 to lead this year’s Open Championship after the first round. Woods has three Open Championship titles on his resume, including back-to-back victories in 2005 and 2006. Almost as impressive as those accomplishments is his play in the opening round of this tournament. He has shot 70 or better in nine of his last 13 Open Championships, including a 67 in 2010 and a 67 in 2012 (he did not play in the Open Championship in 2011).
The odds for two other top contenders to grab the early lead after Thursday’s round that also provide quite a bit of value are Justin Rose and Phil Mickelson at 22/1. Rose is coming off a victory in last month’s US Open, and Mickelson comes into this tournament having just won the Scottish Open this past week.
The 2013 Masters’ winner at Augusta, Adam Scott, has been opened at 25/1 to best the field on Thursday. Last year he had this tournament all but won before collapsing in the final round.
Winner’s Country of Origin
The USA is the favorite in this category at +140, but the value could be in the odds for a player from Great Britain and Ireland to win this week at +300. The US dominated this event from 1995 to 2006 by winning nine of 12 Open Championship titles. Since then, Stewart Cink is the only American to win the Claret Jug (2009) in the last six events. Padraig Harrington (Ireland) owns two of these six titles, and Darren Clarke (Northern Ireland) won this tournament in 2011. The two other titles during this time span belong to South Africans (Louis Oosthuizen in 2010 and Ernie Els last year).
The odds that someone from Continental Europe wins this week are +400, while the odds to win for a player from any other part of world are +300.
The Big 6 vs. The Rest of the Field
The Big 6 for this event consists of Woods, Rose, Scott, Mickelson, Graeme McDowell and Rory McIlroy. The odds that any one of these players win this week are +200 with odds set at -275 that a player from the rest of the field will be hoisting the Claret Jug at the conclusion of this tournament.
There is quite a bit of star power in the Big 6 with a very favorable return on a $100 wager, but this is the kind of tournament that favors either a grizzled veteran or a fresh new face to successfully navigate their way through all four rounds with the lowest score. Look at Els and Clarke the past two years or a relative unknown such as Oosthuizen in 2010.
Best Finish among the Top-5 Favorites
The odds to have the best finish among the Top-5 favorites starts with Woods at +165 followed by Rose and Mickelson at +400. Scott is next at +450, and McDowell is listed at +500.
This is a tough prop to handicap, but if I had to make a play, it would be on McDowell. Both he and Rose are in their element at Muirfield, but the pressure on Rose could take its toll coming off the win in the US Open.
Read more articles by Dave Schwab
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